BASELINE: TULSA 63% BOWLING GREEN 37%  |  FORECASTED SCORE: 40-33

This will be the second-to-last game of the college football season, and will feature two high-scoring offenses that should entertain viewers.  There is projected to be 73 combined points with Tulsa winning over 62% of simulations.  More than 45% of simulations are also being decided by 10 points or more in favor of Tulsa.  

Both quarterbacks should have big games and Tulsa’s Paul Smith projected for 410 yards and three scores.  Golden Hurricane receivers Trae Johnson, Charles Clay, and Brennan Mario are forecasted to combine for over 210 yards receiving while averaging 17 yards per catch. To balance the offense, Tarrion Adams is forecasted to rush for 110 yards and average over 5 yards per carry. 

Bowling Green’s Tyler Sheehan is forecasted to throw for 285 yards and at least touchdowns. His primary target is Freddie Barnes who is projected to have six catches for 75 yards.  While the Falcons do not have a strong running game, their top three rushers (Anthony Turner, Willie Geter, and Chris Bullock) are projected to combine for only 106 yards.  The defense is 2.6 turnovers per simulation and will need to make few big plays if they want to pull off an upset.

Should Bowling Green Pass More? Rush More?
As a sizable underdog, Bowling Green should consider some alternative play calling strategies to pull of the upset.  AccuScore looked at what would happen if Bowling Green passed 75% of the time (vs. 56% in baseline simulations) in order to keep up with Tulsa’s potent offense. 

We also looked at what would happen if Bowling Green passed just 35% and relied on the run in order to hold onto the ball and leave less time on the field for Tulsa’s offense.

© AccuScore.com

The pass heavy offense (75% pass) did increase the winning percentage for the Falcons, but just slightly to 38%, an improvement of just 1%. The rush heavy offense (35% pass) had a negative impact on the Falcons winning percentage and lowered it to 31%.  This was somewhat predictable with Falcons ranking just 87th in the nation in rushing.   
The real key to Bowling Green upsetting Tulsa is being able to contain and frustrate Tulsa quarterback Paul Smith.  Smith is forecasted for a monster game averaging 3.6 touchdown passes per simulation.  For the Falcons to win they need to hold Smith under 300 yards and 3 touchdowns passing.  This would make the game a 50-50 proposition.

© AccuScore.com