AccuScore
| Beware the Favored Trojans |
USC is the best team in college football, and ranked number one in both polls. Now that conference play has begun, Pete Carroll and company might not look as dominant as expected. AccuScore analyst Jonathan Lee looks at some historical trends, and tells you why you need to be wary of the favored Trojans.
  USC is just 4-5 against the spread in Pac-10 play in each of the last three seasons. In all reality, the final score against the Buckeyes shouldn’t really have been unexpected. USC has dominated out of conference opponents during their current run of dominance. Auburn in 2002 and 2003. Colorado and Iowa in ’02. Michigan in ’03 and ‘06. Virginia Tech and Oklahoma in ’04. Illinois in the Rose Bowl last season. Notre Dame every year. All those teams were ranked, and all were destroyed by double digits by USC. To illustrate the numbers, just look at the betting numbers. The Trojans are 22-7-1 against the spread in out of conference games in the past seven seasons including 2-0 this year. Take out an anomalous 2005 season when they went 2-3, and their non-conference record against the spread is a sterling 20-4-1. The real problem has been in-conference against, quite frankly, vastly inferior squads. Since 2002 Pete Carroll’s teams have lost just eight times, but six of those losses came at the hands of a Pac-10 team. Conference teams gain an intimate familiarity with USC playing them every year, and because of that they are not intimidated by the big bad Trojans. They might get blown out, but there is no fear that might exist for a non-conference opponent. That is a huge factor to consider when trying predicting results for USC from now until the end of the season. The Trojans will be double digit favorites until a potential BCS bowl game. I will be shocked if they aren’t at least 20 point favorites for most of the schedule (they are 25 point favorites Thursday at Oregon State). Those huge numbers are supported by USC’s statistically dominant profile, and roster filled top to bottom with the best talent in the nation. No one has been able to figure out how USC lost to Stanford last season or to both Oregon State and UCLA in 2006. Those games don’t seem to make any sense, and that is because they don’t. They were huge statistical deviants in all three cases. The Trojans were favored by a combined 60 points in those three losses including of course a massive 41 point spread against the Cardinal. It just so happened that the one time the Cardinal, Beavers, and Bruins played the conditions came together in a perfect storm for upset wins. In the Stanford game, our computer simulations placed the average margin even higher than the point spread at 43 points. Over 10,000 simulations the Cardinal were winning fewer than 100 times. The Trojans have gone just 4-5 against the spread in conference play in each of the last three seasons. That means trying to use point spreads with the Trojans against Pac-10 opponents is a fools errand. History shows they cover in less than half of Pac-10 games, and lightning will strike at some in the season. And like lightning, it will be impossible to predict when and where. I don’t think the Trojans will lose like last season, but some team will play them much closer than expected. |
