My mother always told me that I wasn’t patient enough.  I always wanted things right away.  I find myself not looking forward to the start of the College Football Season – I’m looking forward to the End of the College Football Season, more specifically a BCS Championship Game between USC and the winner of the SEC.

No offense to Arkansas, Tennessee, Auburn, etc. but I’m banking on the Florida or LSU winning the SEC.

So as an AccuScore Analyst I have access to the simulations and can run imaginary scenarios.  I played LSU vs. USC and Florida vs. USC on a neutral field in good weather.

SCENARIO 1:  LSU VS USC
LSU’s defense should be better than ever, but no matter how good Matt Flynn is, LSU’s offense has to replace JaMarcus Russell, Dwayne Bowe, and Craig Davis.  The Trojan’s defense locks down on LSU’s Early Doucet holding him to just 5 receptions and 55 yards.  Doucet is scoring a touchdown in just 33% of simulations.  USC’s John David Booty is taking what the LSU Defense is giving him.  He is averaging 200 yards per simulation which is good, but not great. The key for USC is his excellent TD:INT ratio (1.5 TDs per sim, 0.6 INTs per sim).  With Booty’s poise and a balanced running attack including Chauncey Washington, C.J. Gable and freshman difference maker Joe McKnight, USC gets the slightest edge in simulations. 

USC is winning 52.8% of simulations and the average score is USC 24, LSU 23.

SCENARIO 2:  FLORIDA VS USC
In 2006, the top rated freshman recruit was Percy Harvin who has been justifiably compared to Reggie Bush.  At the end of his freshman season, he blitzed Arkansas for 167 total yards and followed it up with 9 receptions vs. Ohio State.  Florida lost its starting QB, Chris Leak, but the team is going to be even better with Tim Tebow as the starter.  Florida does not have to worry about the offense. The defense lost superstars, Reggie Nelson and Jarvis Moss.  This game is also incredibly close in simulations.  Florida’s ability to convert on 3rd down using both speed and power keeps the offense on the field and the USC offense (with its version of the next Reggie Bush, Joe McKnight) off the field.   

Florida is winning this potentially classic match-up in 53% of simulations and the average score is Florida 24, USC 22.

So it looks like the Preseason polls have it right ranking USC, Florida and LSU as the Top 3 Teams in the Country.  However, USC is the #1 in the Polls and living in LA, most experts say this is arguably USC’s most talented team ever.  According to these simulations, USC is certainly as good as LSU and Florida, but they aren’t clearly better.  What’s the reason for USC not having the simulation edge over these SEC powerhouses?

I looked at the stats a little more closely and saw that USC’s #1 WR, Patrick Turner, is catching a lot of balls, but he isn’t getting into the end zone like his predecessors, Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith.  In 2006, over 17% of Jarrett’s receptions resulted in a touchdown. Smith was not far behind with 14% of receptions resulting in a TD.  Patrick Turner has just 2 Touchowns in 27 receptions (7%).

With Jarrett and Smith in the NFL, AccuScore’s simulations definitely expect the former #1 WR recruit in the country to get plenty of looks in the Red Zone.  Expect over 12% of Turner’s receptions to be for Touchdowns.  However, there is no guarantee that Turner will produce as well as two of the best WRs in USC history. 

But what if Turner produces like Dwayne Jarrett did?  If Turner plays as well as Jarrett then USC gets the slight edge over both LSU and Florida.  By no means is it a blow-out but USC wins over 50% of simulations vs. both teams. 

So my plan to satisfy my thirst to see this season’s BCS Championship Game did not work.  Seeing how close these simulations are only makes me look forward to this possible match-up even more.  I just hope these teams don’t get upset like USC did vs. UCLA last season and potentially ruin a classic match-up.