BASELINE: ALABAMA 66% COLORADO 34%  |  FORECASTED SCORE 30-24

Alabama lost their last four straight games and once again find themselves in the Independence Bowl. While Alabama failed to improve in Nick Saban’s first year, Colorado showed tremendous improvement in Dan Hawkins second year and the two teams square off both looking to avoid losing seasons.

Alabama is winning almost two-thirds of simulations by nearly a touchdown on average.  Quarterback John Parker Wilson is projected to throw for 220 yards and twice as many touchdowns as interceptions.  In addition, running back Terry Grant is forecasted to have a strong day with 104.8 yards on 22 carries.

Colorado is led by freshmen quarterback Cody Hawkins and running back Hugh Charles. As the focal points of the Buffalo offense, Hawkins is projected to throw for 190 yards and 1.6 touchdowns, with Charles rushing for 100 yards on five yards per carry. Colorado’s defense will also be active and is forecasted to sack Wilson twice and force close to two turnovers.

Which Offenses Will Show Up For Alabama and Colorado?
Except for a 14 point performance against Florida State, Alabama scored 23 or more in every game before November 10.  They scored 34 against LSU’s top rated defense and 41 against Tennessee.  The Tide then, inexplicably, ended the season scoring 12, 14, and 10 points against the likes of Mississippi State, Louisiana-Monroe, and Auburn (all losses).  Quarterback John Parker Wilson passed for 14 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions in the first 9 games, but finished with just one touchdown pass and five interceptions in the final three games of the year.  Terry Grant had averaged five yards per carry and one score in every 20 carries.  his final two games saw his average drop to 4.3 ypc and with a touchdown once every 40 carries.

Colorado showed the opposite pattern offensively.  The Buffaloes scored 31 against a poor Colorado State team in Week 1, and then followed that up by scoring just 14 points against Arizona State and 6 against Florida State.  While the Buffaloes struggled against top rated teams like Kansas and Missouri (24 points scored), they racked up points against Nebraska and Baylor (108 points combined), and scored 27 in their upset over Oklahoma.  Since Colorado was such a young team (its leading passer, runner, and receiver were all freshmen), an improvement in performance could have been reasonably be expected as the players gained more experience later in the season. 

AccuScore decided to re-simulate the Independence Bowl using two scenarios. The first scenario disregarded the statistics from Alabama’s final three losses and only used data from their first nine games. The second scenario discounted Colorado’s first three games and only used data from their final nine games.

© AccuScore.com

Our data showed that if Alabama could return to early and mid season form and bring back its high-scoring offense, their winning percentage jumps a whopping 10 points to 76% overall.  Additionally, when AccuScore disregarded the slow start for the Buffaloes, their winning percentage rose six percentage points to 40% overall.  

Will the long layoff help Alabama erase the memories of its late season collapse, or will it make Colorado’s slow start an even more of a distant memory?  Only time will tell.