BASELINE: CALIFORNIA 53%  AIR FORCE 47%  |  FORECASTED SCORE: 27-26

A full day of bowl games on New Year’s Eve will kick off with Cal against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. The Bears certainly are disappointed to be in Fort Worth after losing six of seven games to finish the regular season after coming within a hair of a No.1 ranking. Air Force has had better success ending the year on a three-game winning streak.

However, Cal is a slight favorite in this game winning just over 52% of simulations by just over a point on average. Quarterback Nate Longshore is forecasted for 200 yards passing and a touchdown. On the ground, the Bears will look to Justin Forsett who is forecasted to rush for 115 yards on 25 carries with a touchdown.

The Air Force Falcons are lead by running back Chad Hall. After starting the year at wide receiver, Hall finished the season with 1,400 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns. He will once again be the focal point of the offense and is projected to gain 100 yards on 15 carries.

What Happened to Nate Longshore?
Nate Longshore was injured and did not play when Cal was upset by Oregon State.  In his prior 16 games, Longshore completed 60% of his passes with 26 Touchdowns and just 14 interceptions.  In the six games since his injury, his completion percentage dropped to 56.8% and he threw 9 TD passes with 11 interceptions. 

AccuScore was curious how strong a favorite Cal would be against Air Force if Longshore could return to his early season form. We disregarded his last six games, re-simulated the Armed Forces Bowl and saw Cal’s win probability increase 15 points to 68 percent. 

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