7 in '07 - Week 5

The college football season is 4 weeks old and already fans are getting nervous over the idea of multiple national championship contenders. Instead of joining the fray, Wailele Sallas looks at 7 things he's learned so far this season in this week's 7 in '07.

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Stephen Oh & Jonathan Lee
AccuScore Analysts

There’s no doubt you’ve seen it while perusing the polls each week. It’s hard not to, if you remember the 2003 season. That was the year we witnessed our first shared national championship since the BCS. Oklahoma and LSU played in the Sugar Bowl, and USC was left out to dry in the Rose Bowl. Now, all three schools once again find themselves at the top of the polls, and once again people are starting to freak.

Stop. Take a deep breath and listen.

College football is a long season. We’re only four weeks into the season, and already 11 schools that started the year ranked, are no longer featured in the Top 25. There have been upsets all over the place, and that’s just in the first four weeks.

College football fans always assume the worst and look at the season as if it were ending right now. So many unbeaten teams are going against each other next week that the list of undefeated schools will be thinned. Couple that with conference schedules heating up, and there’s no doubt that USC, LSU, Florida, Ohio State, Oklahoma and West Virginia will not all be standing unbeaten.

So instead of looking at what might be, let’s look at the first trimester of college football. This week’s 7 in ’07 looks at the 7 stories and questions that have emerged from a young season.

7) Defense, who needs defense? Am I the only one who would love to see a match up between Texas Tech and Hawaii? Can you imagine the offensive output in that one? The Warriors are averaging almost 56 points per game. Texas Tech is averaging right around 50. How is this not a game that is played every year? The score would be in the range of some college basketball games.

You’d have to filter crowds in and out due to exhaustion. Colt Brennan and Graham Harrell would be playing a game of “top this” with both quarterbacks throwing for near 600 yards. ESPN Game Update would score 4 touchdowns in a 30 second span. Both defensive coordinators would leave the game with a simple note, “I tried.” In terms of games I’d love to see most, Texas Tech vs. Hawaii would be right below a college football playoff.

Some of you might say that’s not football. That throwing 60 times a game is a mockery of the true nature of football. That the game is supposed to have a final score of 17-14. Like every other sport, football ultimately is entertainment, and I can’t think of anything more entertaining than a 77-74 barn burner between two gun-slingers. Let’s make this happen!

6) The Big East is now the Big Beast. Four teams are ranked from the Big East. Five teams are undefeated. Rutgers and West Virginia are in the top 10. Did I mention there are only 8 schools in the conference? That means 50 percent of the schools are ranked! Yes, most of those wins have not come against the stiffest of competition, but they have beaten teams from the Pac-10, ACC and SEC collectively. Last year the Big East went 5- 0 in bowl games. This year you can expect more of the same from a conference that is slowly turning into a top three powerhouse.

5) What is up with the Big 10? Does anyone have an answer? Michigan came into the year as the favorite, they proceeded to get shaken and stirred by Appalachian State and Oregon. All eyes then turned to Penn State as the team to beat, and the Nittany Lions strolled into Ann Arbor and were beat convincingly as Wolverine Running Back Mike Hart took the hand-off 44 times to victory. Now, the rumblings have the nation focused on Ohio State. Why are the Buckeyes now the chic team to pick in the Big 10?

Ohio State is the favorite now because they rolled up 58 points on Northwestern. The same Northwestern team that lost to Duke at home. The same Duke team that was riding a 22 game losing streak. The Buckeyes have played Youngstown State, Akron, Washington and Northwestern, and now they deserve national championship hype because they are in the Big 10. If I see another Big 10 school in the national championship game, I will boycott the game. Are we not aware that the Big 10 is down this year? Or do we have to see another spread offense come in and tear up the fabric of what is the Big 10? Some of you might ask, what about Wisconsin? The Badgers barely got out of UNLV and squeaked by THE CITADEL! That is not a national championship team. Big 10 followers: stop hoping Ohio State runs the table and makes it to the big game. Take your Rose Bowl and live with it.

4) So what is the best conference in the land? I truly believe it comes down to three conferences, SEC, Pac-10, and yes, the Big East. Each conference has an upper tier and a second tier with a lot of good schools. In the SEC you have Florida and LSU at the top with Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Arkansas in the second tier. Tennessee is flirting with the second tier, but not quite back there yet. The Pac-10 has USC at the top with Cal, Oregon, Arizona State and UCLA holding down the conference. In the Big East, West Virginia and Rutgers are the class of the league. Cincinnati, South Florida, and -- before two weeks ago -- Louisville had major aspirations of making a name for themselves in the national scene.

If we’re just talking about strength in conference, there has always been a saying that there is strength in numbers. With that in mind, I have to go with SEC. I do believe the Pac-10 has the more elite teams, and the Big East is the most proficient conference, but year in and year out, including this season, the SEC has the horses to compete with anyone.

3) Speaking of questions, what is the biggest surprise this year? For me, it has to be Cincinnati. As you may or not have guessed yet, I have penchant for the underdog eating at the same table as the big dogs, and this certainly qualifies. Cincinnati is in the Top 25 for the first time since 1976. The Bearcats haven’t been 4-0 since 1954. Cincinnati runs the vaunted spread offense and has two quarterbacks, starter Ben Mauk and Dustin Grutza, who can run it well. Cincy also leads the nation in turnover margin on defense. Now they have the city behind them as 35,000 watched the Bearcats put a thumping on Marshall. The largest crowd ever to watch a game at Nippert Stadium. Cincinnati has outscored its opponents, 180-30. I hope it lasts longer than it should since Rutgers welcomes the new-look Bearcats in week 6.

2) How the mighty have fallen. I did some research but could not find a date when Florida State, Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas, Michigan and Notre Dame were all out of the top 25. If anyone knows the answer to this let me know. It’s just mind-boggling that six of the nation’s top programs are having down years all at the same time. If you couple that with schools like Kentucky, Cincinnati, South Florida, Missouri and Hawaii ranked and I’m at a complete loss as to what is going on in college football. Is the world flat? Does milk not do a body good? I need to know these things.

1) Who’s #1. Right now I think there are five schools that have separated themselves from the rest of the competition.

USC, Florida, LSU, Oklahoma and West Virginia.

All five schools have put up impressive wins. All five schools are national powers. All five schools have tests coming shortly. This week West Virginia faces South Florida. Although I believe the Mountaineers will walk through the Bulls, it will be WVU’s first real competition, and as this season has proven, anything can happen.

Florida and LSU tangle next week, which will give one school the edge to a National Championship berth, although it’s still early in the season. October 6 is also the date Oklahoma takes on Texas in the Red River Shootout. USC faces Oregon at Autzen Stadium on October 27.

The reason I mention these games is because although these look like the five best teams now, there is no telling where the season might end up going. I think Florida’s Tim Tebow is not yet John Elway, and either next week against the Tigers or somewhere down the line the Gators defense will be exposed and Tebow will get his first lesson on the mountains and valleys of SEC football.

West Virginia has yet to prove its prowess on the defensive side of the ball. We all know what the offense can do but if the ‘Eers come across a school who can throw, WVU may find themselves in a bit of tussle.

That leaves three schools left who I believe are the top three in the nation.

Sam Bradford has the Oklahoma Sooners offense playing at such an extreme level, no one could have expected it. Bradford and Wide Receiver Malcolm Kelly have established a connection that is very impressive. Compared to the Pac-10 and the SEC, however, I believe the Big 12 is an inferior conference, and if Oklahoma were to go against either USC or LSU, Bradford would have his hands full with arguably the two best defenses in all the land.

Which leaves two schools, LSU and USC. Here’s what Stephen Oh calculated through Accuscore simulations at the beginning of the year if the two were to play:

LSU’s defense should be better than ever, but no matter how good Matt Flynn is, LSU’s offense has to replace JaMarcus Russell, Dwayne Bowe, and Craig Davis. The Trojan’s defense locks down on LSU’s Early Doucet holding him to just 5 receptions and 55 yards. Doucet is scoring a touchdown in just 33% of simulations. USC’s John David Booty is taking what the LSU Defense is giving him. He is averaging 200 yards per simulation which is good, but not great. The key for USC is his excellent TD:INT ratio (1.5 TDs per sim, 0.6 INTs per sim). With Booty’s poise and a balanced running attack including Chauncey Washington, C.J. Gable and freshman difference maker Joe McKnight, USC gets the slightest edge in simulations.

I couldn’t have said it better myself. If you breakdown the offense vs. defense, Booty gets the nod over Flynn at quarterback because of JDB’s ability to manage the game, find the open receiver and not make mistakes. He is the ultimate championship quarterback because you have to beat him; he will not beat himself. At the wide receiver positions, Early Doucet is the key to LSU’s offense, they look to get him the ball at every opportunity. On USC’s side of the ball, the run sets up the pass. Chauncey Washington, Stafon Johnson, C.J. Gable, Joe McKnight all can run the ball effectively. This sets up the passing game, which has worked beautifully in the Trojans’ three victories this year.

On the defensive side of the ball, LSU’s Glenn Dorsey is a beast. Four games into the year, the Tigers have the best defense in the nation. USC is 25th. The Trojans have the better athletes, however, and have the speed to corral LSU’s offense. I’ll put it this way: South Carolina held LSU to 28 points, if you can call that holding. USC is stronger, faster, quicker and more experienced than the Gamecocks, because of that, and USC’s experience on both sides of the ball.

I believe USC is the best team in the country. Will the Trojans get to prove it in January? Only time will tell.

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