Two things can happen this weekend.  Both Missouri and West Virginia will win and head in to the national championship game and provide one of the most offensively exciting games in recent history.  Or one team can lose and chaos ensues.  The latter would not surprise me, the former would.

With this in mind, this week’s 7 in ’07 tackles bowl predictions for the seven biggest bowls of the season.  Before we get to the predictions, here is a refresher on how the BCS selection process goes.

The Big 12 Champion goes to the Fiesta Bowl.  The Pac-10 and Big 10 Champion smells the Roses.  The SEC Champion marches to the Sugar Bowl.  The ACC Champion heads to the Orange Bowl.  The Big East Champion is also guaranteed a BCS bowl bid.

A team outside the non-BCS schools clinches a spot if it is ranked in the top 12 of the BCS rankings or ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than a champion of a conference having an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

If there are fewer than 10 automatic qualifiers, then the bowls will select at-large participants to fill the remaining berths. An at-large team is any Football Bowl Subdivision team bowl-eligible and meets the following requirements:

  a) Has won at least nine regular-season games
  b) Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS standings

No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections.

If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) if any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference having fewer than two teams in the top 14.

Now that I have you cross-eyed, here are the predictions:

7) Cotton Bowl – According to the Cotton Bowl’s website, the first Classic was conceived by the late J. Curtis Sanford, a Dallas oilman and business executive. Sanford's first game promotion, a private enterprise guaranteeing each institution $10,000, matched TCU and Marquette on January 1, 1937, at Fair Park's Cotton Bowl Stadium before 17,000 fans. In 1941, the affiliation with the Southwest Conference began, with the SWC voting to send its champion annually to the Classic as the host institution. A partnership was formed in 1998 to create one of the top collegiate matchups in postseason play.

Now both teams take home $3 million.  Each year the AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic serves as a New Year's Day home for the Big 12 Conference and Southeastern Conference.

With the conference allegiance in mind, I believe the Cotton Bowl will select SEC runner up Tennessee and Big 12 Representative Kansas. 

Yes, Kansas only has one loss, and either Missouri or Oklahoma will have two.  But if Missouri loses in the Big 12 championship, it will be by the same team.  Essentially you can say they lost once.  As for Kansas, the Tigers beat the Jayhawks, doesn’t that make them the better pick?  Also, it is unknown how Kansas will travel, and it is unsure if the BCS will gamble.  Although you can say the same thing about Missouri, the Tigers showed they are the better team of the two.

Kansas vs. Tennessee

6) Capital One Bowl – Previously the Tangerine Bowl (1947-1982) and the Florida Citrus Bowl (1983-2001), the Capital One Bowl has become one of the most lucrative non-BCS bowls.  It has the largest payout of non-BCS schools with $4.25 million going to both teams in 2006.

Currently the bowl has ties to the SEC and the Big 10.  It’s hard not to look at a matchup between Florida and Illinois and not drool.  Ron Zook’s previous team against his current team.  The Mid West Spread vs. The Dirty South Spread.  Juice Williams vs. Tim Tebow.  It has all the makings of a great bowl game.

It must be pointed out that if Ohio State ends up in the national championship game, Illinois might be heading to the Rose Bowl.  I hope that’s not the case and the Rose Bowl takes a higher ranked team to meet the Pac-10 champion.

Illinois vs. Florida

5) Sugar Bowl - The Sugar Bowl has been played annually since 1935. Along with the Orange Bowl and Sun Bowl, the Sugar Bowl is the second-oldest bowl game in the country, behind the Rose Bowl. However, this year the Sugar Bowl adds a new wrinkle with a non-BCS school will be heading to the Big Easy.

With a win over Washington, Hawaii guarantees their spot in the BCS top 12 and clinches a BCS berth.  The reason Hawaii will play in this bowl is because New Orleans hosts the national championship game, meaning the Sugar Bowl gets the last choice for an at-large bid.

Hawaii’s opponent will be the SEC champion.

LSU vs. Hawaii

4) Fiesta Bowl – In this week’s AccuScore Top Ten, I talked about the Sooners run of bad luck.  Although Oklahoma will beat Missouri (more on that later), they are going back to the place of trick plays done right, Arizona.  The Fiesta Bowl has a tie in with the Big 12 champion which means the Sooners are headed back to the desert.

Welcome back Sooners.

Their opponent is an at-large school, and the Fiesta selection committee will be foaming at the mouth to select local team, Arizona State. 

Oklahoma vs. Arizona State

3) Orange Bowl – The Orange Bowl has already made it clear who they want.  The winner of the ACC and Georgia. The Bulldogs are playing as good as anyone right now and have sewed up a BCS game by finishing in the top four of the rankings.  The Orange Bowl will snatch them up with the first pick of the at-large teams.

Virginia Tech will be the ACC representative based solely on the last time they played Boston College.  The Hokies dominated both sides of the ball only to fall apart down the stretch when BC quarterback Matt Ryan threw up two late drives to steal the victory.

Two things have changed since then, Tyrod + Taylor.  The true freshman quarterback adds another element to the once-stale Hokie offense and a change of pace that can kill you more ways than one.  Matt Ryan is a good quarterback, but against a Hokie defense that is immersed in “Beamer Ball,” this one should be a walk for Virginia Tech.

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia

2) Rose Bowl – If you haven’t heard the rumblings out west, lend me your ear.  There is major talk about USC maybe sneaking into the national championship talk once the bowl games conclude on January 7.  There are many who believe the Trojans are the best team in college football right now and if they finish off the year with major style wins, they could steal the AP top ranking.  It is a long shot, but not entirely impossible.

USC has the NCAA’s second rated defense and the offense is turning around, but it would take a lot, almost to the point of winning the lottery a lot, for the Trojans to somehow walk away as Co-National Champions. 

Basically, the Trojans would need everyone in front of them to lose.  LSU to fall to Tennessee in the SEC championship game, Virginia Tech to lose to Boston College, Kansas to lose its bowl game, Georgia to lose its bowl game, and Oklahoma to beat Missouri, only to fall to its Fiesta Bowl opponent.  That leaves Ohio State vs. West Virginia.  For this scenario to have any chance, this game would have to be so poorly played that the media can not, in their right minds, vote for either team as their national champion.  I told you it was lottery improbable, but not impossible.

Regardless, the national talking-heads are sipping the Trojan Kool-Aid, and that can make some funny things happen down the stretch.

As for their opponent, while AccuScore lists LSU with a 63 percent probability to beat Tennessee, the same can not be said for Missouri. AccuScore currently lists Oklahoma as a 53.9 percent favorite in the Big 12 Championship, despite Missouri currently being ranked first in the BCS and AP Poll. 

After watching the first installment, it looked to me as if Missouri was not ready to claim the national spotlight.  But the loss sparked Chase Daniel, and the offense proved they belonged.  Missouri has averaged 44 points per game since its one and only lost.

Now, after Missouri, on a national stage, held off Kansas to claim the top spot in the nation, the big bad bully is back.  In my opinion, Oklahoma wins this one behind the arm of Sam Bradford and the swagger of Oklahoma mystique.  Missouri doesn’t know how to be the top team and it will show in San Antonio this weekend.

USC vs. Missouri

1) National Championship – The top two teams left, West Virginia and De(fault) Ohio State. 

The Buckeyes get one last chance to shake the demons from last year.  If they don’t, they’ll exorcise the ghosts of bowl games past next year by going undefeated.

West Virginia vs. Ohio State

There you have it, the bowl game picture laid out for you, before the BCS gets their hands on it.  Because as history has proven, once the BCS gets involved, you never know.

AccuScore's College Football Top Ten Rankings

Comments or Questions.  Email Wai at wsallas@accuscore.com