Saturday night’s Kansas-Missouri showdown is the game of the year in the Big 12 and could be the most important game in history of its North division. In a game usually reserved for bragging rights, this year’s winner will find themselves among the nation’s highest ranked BCS teams and only one win away from a trip to New Orleans.

AccuScore simulations have Kansas is winning 58% of AccuScore simulations by an average of 4 points. But we wanted to beyond the numbers to see who the real difference makers are and what the impact of this game being played in Kansas City instead of Lawrence.

The Value of Aqib Talib
In one scenario, we simulated the game 10,000 times without Kansas’s All-American, Aqib Talib. Not only is he a stellar shutdown corner, he is a threat to score on both sides of the ball (interceptions and receptions). Talib’s absence has a huge impact on the game decreasing Kansas’s chances by a full 7%.

Maclin Touches
We also ran a scenario where Kansas attempts to reduce Jeremy Maclin’s impact on the game by kicking away from him in all kickoff return or punt return situations, even if this concedes between 10 to 20 yards of net yardage. We also evaluated what would happen if Kansas is successful in cutting Maclin’s touches (receptions, rushes) in half. This scenario also had a significant impact with Kansas’s winning percentage increasing from 58% to 62%.

On the flip side, if Maclin is able to free himself for twice as many touches as normal and Kansas challenges him in special teams, Missouri improves their chances going from a 42% chance of winning to 47%. Of course, limiting or increasing Maclin’s touches is easy in a computer simulation, but doing it on the field is another story.

Swapping Daniel and Reesing
We also looked at the two stellar QBs. What if Todd Reesing had gone to Missouri and Chase Daniel had gone to Kansas? In simulations Chase Daniel completes a higher percentage of his passes, but Reesing’s big play ability translates to a higher percentage of pass completions resulting in a touchdown. Neither QB throws many interceptions and both are good at scrambling for first downs or in goal line situations. Ultimately, swapping the QBs made no difference to the team’s forecasted winning percentages.

Kansas City vs. Lawrence
Finally, the game is being played in a neutral field. What if it was being played in Lawrence? By being in a neutral field Kansas cost themselves 3 percentage points. At home, Kansas wins 61% of the simulations by an average score of Kansas 36, Missouri 30.

SUMARY STATISTICS OF SIMULATIONS