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NCAA Tournament Saturday Game Previews Print E-mail
Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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MIDWEST

(3) Wisconsin vs. (11) Kansas State

Both these teams got by in the first round pulling away from their opponents down the stretch.  They also play very different styles with Wisconsin being the epitome of disciplined team basketball while Kansas State relies on the superior talents of Michael Beasley and Bill Walker almost exclusively.  Beasley will get his numbers, but the Badgers should have more bodies to throw at him defensively.  Walker will need to show up big for another game, and he has been up and down this season.  I think he does not showcase his elite talent twice in a row and Wisconsin puts in another workmanlike performance to grab a victory.

(1) Kansas vs. (8) UNLV
UNLV used its superior offensive firepower to eliminate Kent State in the first round.  The Rebels will have no such advantage in this match-up against the tough defensive-minded Jayhawks.  Kansas is a top seed for a reason, and will be the best team UNLV has faced all year. AccuScore projects Kansas to be a double digit favorite winning about 80% of simulations.  The Rebels may be able to hang around for a bit since they are a solid team, but they clearly are not on the level of the Jayhawks.  This should be another comfortable win for Kansas.

WEST

(2) Duke vs. (7)
West Virginia
The Blue Devils really should not be in this game as they barely survived a challenge from tiny Belmont.  Duke's guards looked slow and unathletic in compared to the Belmont guards which is a very ominous sign for the future.  Luckily for them West Virginia essentially play three wings with a point guard and one post.  That should pose fewer quickness issues and give them a better chance on the defensive end. DeMarcus Nelson is not my favorite player in the world, but he couldn't possibly look worse than he did in the first round.  He will have to at least show up on the defensive end against Alex Ruoff, Joe Alexander, and Da'Sean Butler.  I like Duke to bounce back and perform more to their norm and squeak out another win.  Our computers actually say that the Mountaineers are the slight favorites so Duke is definitely overseeded as the two in this region.

(3) Xavier vs. (6) Purdue
The Baby Boilermakers looked very impressive in running away from Baylor in the first round.  Now they will take on a veteran Xavier team that knows how to deal with the rigors of tournament play.  The Musketeers will once again rely on their balance to lead them.  Look for them to go inside with Josh Duncan and Derrick Brown early and often as the duo combined for 39 points and 19 rebounds against Georgia.  Purdue lacks size, and that should give Xavier the edge in the paint.  I like Xavier to expose Purdue's youth and win comfortably.

(1) UCLA vs. (9) Texas A&M
The Bruins must be licking their chops seeing Connecticut and Drake fall in first round action.  This second round game is likely to be tougher than their potential Sweet 16 match-up.  These two teams played last year to a virtual standstill in the same building, but the Aggies are not nearly the same tough-minded team.  Acie Law and Antanas Kavaliauskas are no longer on the roster to provide leadership and clutch scoring.  Because of that there appears to be a bit of a void, and the Aggies don't exactly know where to turn when they need someone to take control and score some points.  UCLA should be fine health-wise as Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is expected to start.  That means that the Bruins should eventually wear down Texas A&M and pull away late for about a 10 point win.


EAST

(4)
Washington State vs. (5) Notre Dame
This could turn into a battle from the three-point line between these two sweet shooting teams.  Luke Harangody is a special player inside and he should put up his usual double-double, but the Cougars do have a big body in Aron Baynes to counter with in the post.  Baynes led the Cougars with 19 in the post, and if he can repeat that performance his team should win easily.  That might be a bit much to ask so it will likely fall to his perimeter teammates to get the job done.  I like Kyle Weaver, Taylor Rochestie, and Derek Low to outplay Kyle McAlarney and company and allow Washington State to grind out a win.

SOUTH

(3) Stanford vs. (6)
Marquette
Here is an interesting contrast of style with the Lopez twins towering inside for Stanford while Marquette features speed and quickness at every position.  The key to this game will be how Marquette can score inside over the height of Stanford.  Either Robin or Brook Lopez  will in the game at all times, and Lawrence Hill and Taj Finger also both stand at 6'8'' for the Cardinal.  Lazar Hayward and Ousmane Barro will need to stay out of foul trouble and rebound for the Golden Eagles or else this game could get away from them.  Dominic James and Jerel McNeal should be too quick for Stanford's guards.  They need to utilize dribble penetration to get into the lane and create lay-ups and open jumpers for their teammates.  UCLA and USC both employed this strategy to great effect during the Pac-10 season to neutralize the Lopezes.  In the end, Marquette is a very poor three-point shooting team, and I don't think they will be able to handle the superior size of Stanford.

(4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Michigan State
These two teams should just dispense with the pretenses and put on some football pads and helmets.  Both teams are known for their toughness so this game might resemble more of a brawl than a basketball game.  Michigan State needs Raymar Morgan to show up big time.  He has had some inconsistencies in his sophomore year looking dominant one game, while disappearing in others.  His matchup with Pitt's Sam Young will likely determine the outcome.  Drew Neitzel and Levance Fields will each do their thing  on the perimeter hitting clutch shots and providing leadership, but whoever wins the Young-Morgan duel on the wing will lead their team to victory.  Cook has scored in double-figures in all but one game this year, and is the bigger threat from beyond the arc.  Combined with the talents of underrated freshman big DeJuan Blair, and I give the edge to Pitt to move on to the Sweet Sixteen.

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Comments (2)add comment

jonlee said:

 
Just for information's sake KY, I went 7 for 8.
March 23, 2008

ky said:

 
where does jonathan gets his picks? Must be when he's sleeping. Lots of dreams.
March 22, 2008

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