| NCAA: South Regional Expert Analysis |
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 Zach Rosenfield - AccuScore Analyst
While the tournament has produced a lot of exciting games, the South Regional Final showcases the bracket's two best teams with Memphis and Texas. This will be the Tigers stiffest test of the season and while the Longhorns get to play in Houston and have experience already beating Kansas earlier in the season. Texas over Memphis: The Memphis Tigers are going to have to win the National Championship if they are going to make a believer out of me. While I can't argue against his credentials, John Caliperi team's are infamous for having tremendous talent and lackluster results in games that matter. In Memphis's last two NCAA Tournament losses, I could successfully argue that the Tigers had more talent then UCLA and Ohio State (respectively), yet were out performed in each match-up. After following Memphis throughout the year, you can not deny that they are among the most talented team's in the country. You also can't deny that they are an equally undisciplined and unpoised team. I can't erase the sophomoric antics of Joey Dorsey and company at road games against UAB and Souther Miss. Moreover, the fact that they shoot so pourly from the free throw line is the most troubling statistic for a team that is 1-1 against major conference seasonal champions (Tenneessee and Georgetown). Memphis is a good team, but I do not feel they will be able to overcome the 10 points they will most likely leave at the free throw line. Their dismantling of Michigan State could prove to be fools gold for the region's top seeded team. The Tigers came out aggressive, pressing and easily built a 30 point lead againt the outclassed Spartans. Memphis will most likely look to repeat that effort Sunday. The problem is that Texas point guard D.J. Augistin is one of the most in control point guards in the country and the 20,000 attending UT faithful will not let their team lay an emotional egg. AccuScore simulated this game 10,000 times and Memphis won 6,400 of simulations by an average of just over four points. However, at this point of the season I look at the game resumes of the two teams and Texas's win at UCLA and at home verses Kansas really stand out. The Horns led each game from start to finish and were also able to hold off late rallys in each. Texas's seasoning against strong opponents and superior guard play advances the Horns to Final Four. Trackback(0)
Comments (57)
PWNED
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EPIC FAILURE |
Scrawny001
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Great game Kansas. You guys fought to stay in it and fought hard to win it. You were tough! I hate it came down to a free throw but I guess it was bound to come back and bite us. Thanks Tigers for a great season! We're proud of you! |
scrawny001
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It's lonely here when all the people that didn't give Memphis a chance are suddenly gone! We can talk about something else if it'll stop you from............crying! Buhaaahaaaahaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaa! Go Tigers! |
scrawny001
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OMG! UCLA got spanked! Does anyone understand Memphis is on a mission? I keep tellin' you people. Word up! |
Scrawny001
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Come on Andre! You have to be smarter than that! Think about your team! Leave that crap in the hood where it belongs! |
Scrawny001
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Zach said: "Memphis is a good team, but I do not feel they will be able to overcome the 10 points they will most likely leave at the free throw line" LMAO! |
Scrawny001
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Memphis State Fan, How's it going? Great game with Texas huh? I'm no expert on basketball but I do think people are underestimating how bad Memphis wants to win. I guess UCLA will be our biggest test. They match up better than anyone so far. These are good times for Memphis "State" and for the city! People forget our players are used to playing with bullet proof vests on....so when the vests come off - it's like being unleashed! LMAO! Just kidding everyone! Go Tigers! |
Memphis State Fan
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Texas guards looked like high-school players. Augustin had four turnovers in the first 15 minutes of the game. Thanks for the great laugh looking over your predictions. |
Scrawny001
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I told you fools! Memphis spanked Texas! Memphis is awesome! I'm happy with the final four...so I don't care what happens now. But.... bring on UCLA! |
TigerFan007
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Memphis over Texas by 9! |
Scrawny001
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I don't blame you Mr. Spellcheck. Look at what Zach (the so called analyst) said: "Their dismantling of Michigan State could prove to be fools gold for the region's top seeded team" Like the halftime score of 50 to 20 was some kind of error. This was the game Memphis was supposed to lose. Even Vitale had us as an "upset alert" Your right Zachey poo...Memphis will have to win a national championship to make a believer out of you. And all those other "experts" too. LMAO! Bring on Texas! |
Scrawny001
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Now I know Texas is good. There's no doubting that point. But I think our match-ups will give their guards problems....just like Memphis did to Michigan St. Home court "advantage" will not make any difference -especially with the lay-out of the court and the fans being so far back. Any noise they make will be just that - noise. Memphis over Texas! |
Scrawny001
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Like I said - Memphis has it all when Dorsey comes to play. The guards can do it on both ends of the court. So all of you that said Michigan St would beat Memphis....you have some explaining to do. Let's hear it. LOL! |
StateFan
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If the Spartans Can beat Memphis (which I think they will) they can beat Texas just like they did earlier in the season.Go State! |
FarahF
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MSU WIN IT ALL!! GO STATE!! THEY HAVE THE EXPERIENCE, ABILITY, CONFIDANCE, and A WORLD CLASS COACH! watch and see |
Todd
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Memphis will beat m state. Please |
PHIL SPREITZER
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MSU will beat Memphis due to their poor free throws. The rematch with Texas will be a fun game to watch. |
Texas crazed
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Are U crazy! Texas is not going to lose to Pitt. Thy are going to be champs! |
Scrawny001
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Memphis is a well balanced team. If Dorsey has a good game then the rest of our squad will handle the rest. Most of you are forgetting Memphis has great guards, they play great defense and Memphis can put in five different players (a new team) that can keep up the pressure and intensity. That's 40 minutes of all-out ballin'! That's why many of the teams stay with Memphis for about 15 minutes but then Memphis starts to pull away. They have to give their all just to stay with Memphis. It's a fast pace and many of these elite conferences aren't ready for it. It changes your game completely and in every aspect when you have to play tired. Lose your legs - lose your shot - lose the game. Memphis Tigers over Michigan St. |
Eddo
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I see you made a great pick by picking Pitt!!! |
geoffrey22
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sam young stuffed roy hibbert 7'2" twice. Once it was called goal tending, but it was a garbage call. Heighth won't be their problem, free throws and foul trouble could hurt them. Although, Biggs filling in for Blair did quite well. |
bugh fan
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to tylerduren, there are only 2 halfs in college basketball not 4 quarters. |
dwd
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I'll tell you another reason the Tigers will cut down the nets that no one is talking about, and that's their defense, in the cusa tournament semi final game they held So Miss to 4, that's right, 4 first half field goals and in the final game they held a 20 win Tulsa team to 6 first half field goals... say what you will about these teams but that is sick D- compare backcourts: Pitts guards (5' 10" & 6' 1") Memphis (6' 3" & 6' 7") NBA lottery pick and an All-America selection. Not even close. Pitt won't be able to stop Memphis' backcourt. The Tigers guards will drive and shoot over the top of them at will. What wins tournaments?? defense and guard play. |
Cahrn
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Michigan St. is sooo inconsistent they wont be able to handle Pitt. Remember, Pitt just got one of their 2 best guys back form injury. the result: a big east championship. look for a elite 8 battle vs Texas, giving Texas the home court advantage |
Subdude
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Zach said, "Memphis has been in one game late and they lost. I think that counts for a lot as they have nothing to draw on when the stakes get high." Actually, they beat UAB on the road despite being down by about 7 with about 1 minute to go. |
Jimodo
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http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/...teamId=221 I'm not sure why Fields isn't in that list. He would be third in the NCAA in that category. It may because he missed the middle part of the season and does not have enough games to qualify? Either way, very impressive, a very smart player |
dwd
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2ndRd Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 Memphis 98.86 84.43 65.53 44.36 26.94 12.87 2 Texas 97.54 79.16 46.29 21.96 10.63 3.84 3 Stanford 94.31 53.65 27.03 11.21 4.74 1.46 6 Marquette 79.98 41.28 20.43 8.31 3.44 1.04 5 Michigan St. 79.25 49.80 16.46 7.20 2.70 0.73 4 Pittsburgh 78.88 38.78 10.66 3.93 1.23 0.27 8 Mississippi St. 51.43 8.15 3.20 0.89 0.21 0.03 9 Oregon 48.57 7.35 2.79 0.75 0.17 0.03 10 Saint Mary's 50.20 10.37 2.64 0.51 0.10 0.01 7 Miami FL 49.80 10.23 2.58 0.50 0.10 0.01 11 Kentucky 20.02 4.57 0.99 0.16 0.03 0.003 12 Temple 20.75 6.75 0.87 0.15 0.02 0.002 13 Oral Roberts 21.12 4.67 0.48 0.07 0.01 0.0006 14 Cornell 5.69 0.50 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.000003 15 Austin Peay 2.46 0.24 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.0000001 16 Texas Arlington 1.14 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00000002 http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=257 Not sure where some of you fans get your stats but according to the ncaa Fields isn't even in the top 50 for assist vs turnover ratio. http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/rankings According to KP Memphis has a 84% chance of winning the sweet16 (pitt) game.. I'll take those odds- |
Jimodo
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You can take Rose over Fields, I'll take Fields in the college game. Roses 1.59 assist to 1 turnover ratio is simply not impressive. No doubt he will be an excellent pro and is a stud right now, but this is college and I will take someone who takes care of the ball like Fields and his 3.2 to 1 turnover ratio in the Memphis match up. Especially considering his four game A/T ratio was somewhere around 5.5 to 1 in the BE tournament which is absurd. Also...those arguing Memphis will dismantle the Panthers b/c they dismantled Georgetown is a ridiculous argument. Pitt went 2-0 handling Georgetown in every aspect of the game in 2 match ups this year. Prediction Pitt beats ORU, MSU, and Memphis before a tough match up versus my LONGHORNS! |
Shane B
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U R CRAZY! Pitt will not be Texas, in HOUSTON. Hello! Go 'eers... Go Big East |
Marc
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Well, for those arguing Memphis > Georgetown, that was in November when anything goes. Pitt did go through some injuries and got Fields back late. The issue is first Mich St: I think it's a tough game either way. I really don't see either team dominating and Nietzel could have a great game, or Pitt could possibly do enough on perimeter to limit his shots. Inside I have no idea...it seems balanced. Pitt is RPI 15, Mich St. is 16. It's that close as 4 and 5 seeds. Whovever plays Memphis will be exhausted though. FYI, Pitt beat Duke, Georgetown, and Louisville this year...not too shabby. |
UT Fanatic
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Texas will beat Pitt down. U just wait and see. DJ Augustin & AJ Abrams will dominate. GO HORNS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
dwd
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house. If this guys making over 100k he should he arrested for stealing- at least he did go back and correct the spelling of Levance Fields' name. Pitt loses to Memphis- book it. |
dshot
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I agree with your opinion script pitt except for your comment about beating Wisconsin in Madison. When did Pitt beat Wisconsin at Wisconsin? Not recently. The last time the two teams played was last year in Madison and Wisconsin came out on top comfortably. |
GeorgeUNC
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our south brackets match up perfectly... pitt is going to pull an upset! |
D Wolf
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Wow...you obviously know nothing about Michigan State basketball. Neitzel...the only option!?!? Please. Raymar Morgan, although he is playing poorly, will be a tough matchup. Plus, they have a freshman that is lights out SOLID. Lucas...get used to hearing that name over and over. MSU advances to the sweet 16. |
Mic Free
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nobody likes memphis its not becuase they shoot poorly from the freethrow(which by the way during the c-usa tourney they shot 75% from there)its becuase unlike ucla, unc, and kansas they havent won a championship or arent from a big power conference and have historical history i guarantee that memphis will win the championship this year |
script pitt
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The first thing to go when fatigued is technique. A weary Pitt team did not shoot free throws well. They are well rested and will have one day rest between first and second round games. MSU will be no cakewalk, but Pitt has played in the tourney 7 years in a row and has beaten Wisconsin in Madison, ala Texas this year hopefully and is a veteran team with tourney savvy. Not worried about Texas or MSU or even ORU. If Pitt plays their game, it is NC....This is not the same old half court offense, flat-footed non athletic team. Pit still has an inside presence, along with the ability to have a go to guy (SAM YOUNG) with atletes all around who can play any tempo...The nation will see that PITT IS IT!!!!!!!! AND for years to come... |
nicee
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aright #1 Michigan State is absolutely nothing. Neitzels the only player and hes overrated. #2 Neitzel cant beat Levance Fields on the break and #3 Pitt just cashed in with the Big East Tourney and with all of their momentum they can carry themselves all the way. You can call me wrong but it's not cuz of me liking Pitt im a straight UNC fan |
JaRed ball
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texas will not lose to pitt |
double d
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what da h*** r u thinkin?! MEMPHIS ALLL THE WAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
Dirk Diggler 69
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Calipari is a cheater and cheaters never win. |
House
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The reason why pitt will beat memphis is because of their physical defensive style. They'll put memphis on the line all night and the tigers shoot free throws as well as a middle school team. Unless Memphis shoots lights out from three, Pitt will win. And DWD, if this guy is so 'dumb' why is he making 6 figures writing articles and not you? |
Matt W
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pitt over memphis, ok but Pitt over Texas? U crazy |
dwd
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everyone seems to forget that Memphis beat Texas A&M w/ac law last year in San Antonio to advance to the elite8 game.. and this years team is better- |
Ridgway
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The thing you guys need to realize is where is the Elite 8 game being played? Oh yes, thats right, Houston. Texas gets the big upper hand in that game whoever they play. |
dwd
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BTW, "expert" it's Levance Fields not LaVance. What an expert on Pitt, this guys a joke. Derick Rose vs Levance Fields? I'll take future lottery pick Rose anyday, anyplace, anytime- |
dwd
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I guess this guy missed the Memphis vs Georgetown game where UM absolutely destroyed the Hoyas? They will do the same to Pitt. There is a reason all you "experts" aren't coaching, you don't know how to compare/contrast talent and ability from one team to another. All you can do is look at the stat sheets and make predictions based on the paper. Anyone who knows basketball talent will have the tigers in the final four.. |
lljjlj
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wow.. pitt canot beat memphis.. even if they do win good luck because texas will be right there.. |
Hip Hop
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Memphis will kick ass to the amusement of all. And Temple will be straight ballin |
vandyrules
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All of the SEC haters should know this....the vanderbilt commodores should be the cinderella team this year. we are hungry. |
TylerDurden
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I was at two of Pitt's games in the Big East tournament last week, and the thing that kept me from picking them over Texas is their pitiful free throw shooting. They could have beaten Georgetown by 30 if they had shot 50% from the free throw line in the first three quarters. They shot well all year from the foul line but couldn't pull it together in any of the games in the first three quarters, though they were always able to shoot toward the end. I don't trust them to get to the Final Four with such terrible foul shooting. |
wojo
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i agree, and like pitt to win the south, great forecast from a smart writer who realizes how strong pitt really is and w/ all the injuries they had to face to still hold a 4 seed, they would have been at least a 2... but they showed everyone in the big east tournament beating 3 ranked teams a 2 seed, a 3 seed, and a 6 seed in three days in a row.... wow look out |
Pitt fan
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Sam Young is 6 foot 6 and a inside and outside player. He can defend that type of player and the 6th man Gilbert Brown is a 6 foot 6 SF who is an athletic freak. Pitt can guard someone like that... |
Z. H.
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i agree michigan state is going to beat pitt, but the matchup w/ memphis would be an exciting game to watch. |
I
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interesting |
Ryan W.
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I agree with almost everything said except for the Michigan State-Pitt matchup. Michigan State matches up well with Pitt with Suton and Naymick inside to battle and keep Blair and Young off the boards, Neitzel running around screens while also being able to lead the break against Fields, and nobody to match up well with 6'7" inside-out presence Raymar Morgan. With Pitt being the popular upset pick this year, they better be prepared when they meet the gritty Spartans. |
john df
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r u crazy |
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