The Sweet 16 went according to form with both AccuScore favorites, North Carolina and Louisville, winning their games. You have to say that UNC and Louisville have been the most impressive teams in the tournament so far based on their average margin of victory and the eyeball test.

KEYS TO SUCCESS SO FAR
Louisville has been winning thanks, first and foremost, to red hot shooting (52 percent vs. Tennessee, 59 percent vs. Oklahoma, 56 percent vs. Boise State). They dominated the boards against Tennessee (42-24), but they did commit 20 turnovers. They were actually out-rebounded by Boise State and committed 15 turnovers in Round 1.

North Carolina has shot significantly better than all opponents, killed teams on the boards, and has committed just 29 turnovers in 3 tournament games. Both UNC and Louisville have been great defensively holding opponents to 41 percent shooting in the Month of March.

WHY NORTH CAROLINA WILL WIN
North Carolina is shooting a higher Field Goal percentage in simulations (47 percent to 44.7 percent), but when you adjust for Louisville’s three-point shooting advantage (7 per sim vs 4.5 from UNC), it is actually Louisville with the slight advantage in adjusted Field Goal Percentage (56.5 percent to 54.6 percent).

North Carolina is winning 58 percent of simulations thanks the “little things” -- an edge on the boards, turnover margin and free throw percentage. When both teams are shooting well it is the team that has the slight edge in possessions and make the most of their freebies at the line that gets the 3-5 point edge. The four leading UNC scorers in simulations are all shooting 80 percent or higher from the free throw line in simulations while only Jerry Smith of Louisville is above 70 percent among Louisville’s top scorers.

While Tyler Hansbrough may be Player of the Year in most polls, the big advantage UNC has in this match-up is PG Ty Lawson. Lawson has played great in the tournament and his handle and speed will be a huge key to handling Rick Pitino’s pressing defense. Without Lawson, UNC would not have the edge in turnover margin. Louisville on the other-hand lacks consistent PG play. The team’s best passer is Center David Padgett. Guards Jerry Smith and Edgar Sosa are good, but often make mistakes that result in Pitino angrily pulling them from games even in key situations.

HOW LOUISVILLE CAN UPSET NORTH CAROLINA
Even though the little things and Point Guard leadership are in Carolina’s favor, Louisville has the edge in depth. More importantly, it’s not just players off the bench who can consistently contribute solid numbers, they have players who can explode for 20+ points off the bench. If Earl Clark or Jerry Smith are having off-nights you could end up getting 20-12 from Derrick Caracter or Juan Palacios.

Besides Danny Green, UNC does not have a big-time potentially explosive scorer off the bench. If Tyler Hansbrough struggles against the deep Louisville front-line, or if Ty Lawson re-aggravates his ankle injury UNC could be toast against the high pressure Louisville defense. After Lawson went down with injury and Carolina lost at home to Duke, the team re-committed to playing great defense. While there is no reason to believe that they will revert to their mediocre defense, if they do not play with their typical intensity or key interior defenders like Deon Thompson get in foul trouble, then Louisville could shoot 50 percent for the game, and not 44.7 percent as predicted. One or two more made baskets by Louisville gives them the advantage.

Unlike every other game these two teams have played so far this one should be close and I expect the game to be with 3 points with under 4 minutes to go. The reason why I like Carolina in this close game situation is they are less likely to commit a turnover, they are more likely to get a foul call go their way and much more likely to make the clutch free throw.