Since when did the state of Tennessee become such a basketball hotbed? A confluence of luck, coaching, timing, and talent has caused Saturday’s match-up between Memphis and Tennessee to become a showdown between No.1 vs. No.2. Winner gets state bragging rights, and perhaps the inside track towards a top seed in March.

The Tigers enter the contest still undefeated at 26-0, and the Vols are the most likely team left on the schedule to saddle them with a loss. This game however, does not seem as close as a showdown between the top two teams in the nation should be. AccuScore has Memphis winning nearly 70% of simulations by seven points on average.

There is one glaring mitigating factor leading to this outcome however. Memphis has the huge advantage of playing at home. The Tigers have not lost at home since falling to Texas way back on January 2, 2006. That is a span of 47 straight victories (including the Conference-USA tournament which Memphis hosts). In their 15 home contests this season the Tigers have won by an average of 23.3 points, and only three of those games were decided by single digits. Both of Tennessee’s losses have come on the road (78-97 @ Texas, 66-72 @ Kentucky) so clearly venue is a big factor in this game. If this game were played on a neutral floor Memphis would only be a 53% favorite, a difference of 15 percentage points.

One of Memphis’ biggest weaknesses is its extremely poor free-throw shooting. Critics have said this will eventually cost the team a win, but that hasn’t happened yet mostly because of the large margins by which they win. This game is being determined in simulations by three points or less in just less than 25% of the time.

While usually if the score is that close at the end and free throws might be the determining factor, Tennessee loses this possible advantage because the Vols themselves can’t shoot from the charity stripe either. Memphis shoots just 58.8% from the free throw line which ranks 339th, third worst in the country. Tennessee though is not much better at 64.1% which is 302nd in the country. Interestingly our simulations have the Vols missing eight times from the line shooting 17 of 25 on free throws. Eight points would eliminate the average margin in the game, and would make them a favorite.

Another big factor in this game will be Memphis’ defense. The Tigers rank first in adjusted defensive efficiency at 81.0. They are projected to hold Tennessee to just 41.5% shooting, and notch at least 8 steals. Chris Lofton is shooting just 39% from the floor in simulations with 14 points. He is very streaky, and if he can get hot from the outside he has the ability to carry his team offensively. Lofton’s shooting will be important in order to open up the floor for the rest of his teammates.

Memphis will have a size advantage at every position as each Tigers starter is taller than his Vol counterpart. Point guard Derrick Rose is the only Memphis starter under 6’6’’ (he is 6’4’’) while Tennessee starts three players that stand only 6’2’’ (Lofton, JaJuan Smith, Ramar Smith). Chris Douglas-Roberts has been playing at an All-American level all year, and is forecasted for 17 points and 5 rebounds. At a long and athletic 6’6’’, Douglas-Roberts presents a sizable match-up problem for the Volunteers. He should be able to shoot over the top of defenders, and use his length to get to the bucket fairly easily. Tennessee will need to get this game very up-tempo in order to neutralize the size advantage for Memphis, and hit its shots from outside.