The Patriots’ loss in the Super Bowl proved just how difficult going undefeated is.  Only the 1972 Dolphins have gone unblemished in the NFL, and the same feat has not been accomplished in college basketball since Bob Knight’s 1976 Indiana squad.  Going unbeaten requires not only the requisite talent, skill, and coaching, but also several lucky breaks and intense unwavering focus.

Now the unanimous No.1 team in the nation, Memphis is the only undefeated team left standing.  With the relative weakness of Conference-USA many people believe that it is more of an eventuality that the Tigers will go undefeated before the NCAA tournament, but accomplishing that feat would be more impressive than most would give them credit for.

While Memphis will be big favorites in every game left on its schedule, combined the chances of winning all of them is just 26%.  The odds against them remaining unbeaten are almost 3 to 1.  Here are the projected winning percentages for the rest of Memphis’ regular season schedule according to AccuScore simulations:

The last team to seriously threaten going undefeated in the regular season was Illinois in 2005.  That team started 29-0 before losing to a mediocre Ohio State in the regular season finale.  The Buckeyes did not even qualify for the NCAA tournament that season. 

Illinois, led by three future NBA talents in Deron Williams, Luther Head, and Dee Brown, recovered from that loss to reach the NCAA Final.  The Illini were supremely talented yet they still managed to lose a regular season game illustrating just how difficult an undefeated season is to accomplish.  The very nature of college basketball where upsets are commonplace makes going undefeated almost counter to the spirit of the sport.

This season’s version of the Memphis Tigers appears talented enough to pull off the feat.  Derrick Rose projects to be a top-5 pick this summer, and Chris Douglas-Roberts should join him in the first round.  The rest of the roster is filled with great athletes from long-armed Antonio Anderson on the perimeter to the bulldozing Joey Dorsey inside.  And this squad is tournament tested having gone to the Elite Eight last season without the preternaturally gift Rose.

Two major roadblocks remain on the schedule: at UAB, and at home against Tennessee.  UAB is the chief conference rival for the Tigers, and feature standout Robert Vaden who averages better than 20 points per game.  Tennessee is the only remaining “elite” team on Tigers schedule, but having to travel to Memphis greatly lessens the Vols’ chance for a victory.

Memphis will keep trying to win every game it plays, and it will likely be a favorite in every contest it plays until at least a potential Elite Eight match-up.  With the law of averages playing against them and the accompanying media scrutiny however, it may be to the Tigers benefit to lose a contest between now and NCAA tournament.