It’s finally March and that means tournament time in college basketball.  It also means teams across the country are sweating out life inside the bubble, and whether or not they will get a coveted invite to the NCAA tournament.  Every game becomes almost a do-or-die proposition.

The final at-large bids in the tournament field are typically seeded either 11th or 12th every year meaning they would square off against a 5- or 6-seed in the first round.  AccuScore pitted eight teams squarely on the bubble against two teams that are representative of a likely first-round opponent in Marquette and Purdue.  This was done in order to measure the chances these teams could potentially win a game should they receive a bid to the Big Dance.

This next team got a huge win yesterday, and another win in their conference tournament would lock up a bid:

Villanova
Big East Conference
20-11 overall; 9-9 in conference
RPI:    52
SOS:   52

Villanova made a statement last night running fellow at-large candidate Syracuse off the court with a barrage of three-point shots.  The Wildcats won convincingly 82-63 led by 22 points from Scottie Reynolds.  They hit 11 of 21 shots from behind the arc, and positioned themselves ahead of the Orange in the pecking order for a tournament bid.  Tonight they will get a big chance against Georgetown to get a win that would secure an invitation.

Currently ‘Nova looks to be right on the cut line for a bid.  If the selection committee were deciding today I think they would just make it, but is still much basketball to be played across the country.  The Wildcats certainly played themselves into a spot yesterday, but several other bubble teams like Oregon, Arizona State, Ohio State, and UMASS will have opportunities to do just the same thing.  Of course these teams could also play their way off the bubble, but the ‘Cats would just rather not worry about any of that.

The last time Villanova and Georgetown squared the game was decided on a highly questionable foul call that sent the Hoyas’ Jonathan Wallace to the line with just 0.1 seconds remaining.  Wallace was nearly 70 feet away from the basket at the time, and very little contact was made.  Even Wallace himself thought that the whistle meant he had stepped out of bounds.  Instead he went to the line, sank two free throws, and gave Georgetown a 55-53 win.

Officiating aside, that game certainly proved that Villanova can beat Georgetown on a neutral floor.  In that game Reynolds was the only Wildcat to score more than 9 points (he had 24).  He will need more help this time around particularly from Dante Cunningham and Corey Fisher.  They combined to shoot just 2 for 18 from the field last time, and will need to help Reynolds with the scoring load.

If Villanova does not win today it will have a long time to sweat waiting for Selection Sunday to see if they are in or out.