It’s finally March and that means tournament time in college basketball.  It also means teams across the country are sweating out life inside the bubble, and whether or not they will get a coveted invite to the NCAA tournament.  Every game becomes almost a do-or-die proposition.

The final at-large bids in the tournament field are typically seeded either 11th or 12th every year meaning they would square off against a 5- or 6-seed in the first round.  AccuScore pitted eight teams squarely on the bubble against two teams representative of a likely first-round opponent in Marquette and Purdue.  This was done in order to measure the chances these teams could potentially win a game should they receive a bid to the Big Dance.

Today’s team is Syracuse:

Syracuse Orange
Big East Conference
17-12 overall; 7-9 in conference
RPI:    57
SOS:   10

	VS MARQUETTE	VS PURDUE	AVERAGE
SYRACUSE	40%	44%	42%

The Orange may have seen their hopes dashed when they literally threw away a game against Pitt this past Saturday.  The loss puts them in ninth place, two games under .500 in conference play, and in serious jeopardy of missing the tournament for a second straight year. The best nonconference wins are over Saint Joseph’s at home, and at Virginia.  Neither team is likely a tournament team however.  The Orange also own wins over Georgetown and Villanova, but also lost to UMASS and Rhode Island at home, as well as South Florida on the road.  Those losses may come back to haunt this team on Selection Sunday.

Syracuse is fairing well against Purdue in simulations because of a fairly balanced inside-out attack led by freshman guard Jonny Flynn, freshman wing Donte Green, and sophomore post Arinze Onuaku.  Like Florida, the Orange rely exclusively on underclassmen after junior leader Eric Devendorf was lost early in the year to a knee injury.  The talent has shown through at times this year, but inexperience has led to some poor performances and exasperating games like the loss to Pitt.

The team is fairing well against conference foe Marquette in simulations on a neutral floor as well.  That is a good sign as Syracuse will close out the regular season hosting the Golden Eagles at the Carrier Dome after visiting Seton Hall tomorrow.  Wins in both games are likely essential to receiving a tournament bid from the committee.