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In the Bubble - Ohio State Print E-mail
Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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It’s finally March and that means tournament time in college basketball.  It also means teams across the country are sweating out life inside the bubble, and whether or not they will get a coveted invite to the NCAA tournament.  Every game becomes almost a do-or-die proposition.

The final at-large bids in the tournament field are typically seeded either 11th or 12th every year meaning they would square off against a 5- or 6-seed in the first round.  AccuScore pitted eight teams squarely on the bubble against two teams that are representative of a likely first-round opponent in Marquette and Purdue.  This was done in order to measure the chances these teams could potentially win a game should they receive a bid to the Big Dance.

Ohio State made the finals last year, but that was with Greg Oden and Mike Conley.  Let’s take a look and see if the Buckeyes can make a return trip to the Big Dance:

Ohio State
Big-10 Conference
19-12 overall; 10-8 in conference
RPI:    49
SOS:   21

  VS MARQUETTE VS PURDUE AVERAGE
  OHIO STATE 27% 42% 35%

The Buckeyes were left for dead as recently as 10 days ago, but wins over Purdue and Michigan State have thrust them right back into the thick of the race.  The biggest criticism of this Ohio State team had been its 1-9 record against the RPI top 50.  Two consecutive wins over quality opponents have helped fix that, but it still is not a stellar record.  The best wins outside of conference play were against Florida at home and Syracuse on a neutral floor.  Both of those teams however are also on the bubble, and are very iffy to get into the tournament.

Friday will present another opportunity for the Buckeyes to raise their profile as they will once again face off against Michigan State.  Yet another win over a quality opponent would create a compelling argument for the selection committee to ponder.  Getting to the conference final on Sunday would likely mean a win over Wisconsin as well which would end the need for any arguments.  This is another case where a team (Ohio State) can play their way off the bubble and straight into the tournament.  Of course a loss would leave their profile a bit lacking, and would leave their fate undetermined until Sunday.

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Tucker said:

 
Hold up there big fella. A couple of thoughts. The bucks don't deserve a bid and baylor does? The bucks don't deserve a bid and Oregon does? Oh wait lets try this one... The bucks don't deserve a bid and South Alabama does. Come on bro. Do your homework. #1 seed in the NIT shows obviously that they just missed the cut to the teams I mentioned above. It is easy for South Alabama to not go 3-9 against the top 50 RPI when ah... they didn't play a single game against a top 50 RPI team! How about Baylor there good right? How's 2-4 against top 50 rpi teams. Even Oregon was 3-4 against the top 50 RPI. The bottom line is the small often un-noticed teams in D1 are what make this tournament the cash cow that it is. It really makes a lot of sence if you think about it... The more mid majors you have the more chance we have for upsets and drama. Not to mention that it gives the commentators more to talk about. If I hear one more conversation about parity in college sports I am going to vommit. The bottom line is that the NCAA is not out to have the best 64 compete for the title, they are out to make some coin. Making the coin requires a cinderella story. What would the tournament be with out it right? The problem is that Cinderella is comming to the ball in her street clothes and pair of PF flyers hoping that the stars will align and the slipper will fit. Is that really what produces and undisputed champion?
Bottom line the RPI system is a joke much like the BCS. But at least the BCS has the balls to say their system is the final word. Unlike the RPI where the NCAA selection commitee sits around and attempts to build a wonderful fictional picture for the world to enjoy instead of truely giving the best 64 teams the opportunity to shoot it out for the title. Drama sells and the truth is that they know disgruntaled fans will always come running back the next year when their club gets in. Either way, let call it what it is... a fairy tail, because thats what we want to see isn't it? Let's just skip to the end of the movie. Kansas, North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis. Through a Texas, a Tennessee a Wisconsin and a Georgetown in there and wham you have got the top 8 teams in the country (in my opinion). Save the ciderella story, feed some hungry people and I still think you have a more effective tool to crown a champion then this years tournament. Have a good one.
March 19, 2008

Somebody said:

 
I think Ohio St probably deserved a bid, but sadly there just aren't enough to go around. At least my Ducks are in...
March 18, 2008

Suman said:

 
The Bucks probably won't and probably shouldn't get a bid. But the really tough part is that they played all of the top teams on their schedule really tough, with the exception being Butler and A&M who blew them out. They hung with UNC at Chapel Hill, they were there until the end with Tennessee in Knoxville, and they played Wisconsin, Indiana, and Mich St. tough every time they played them. But I think those losses to Michigan and Minnesota at the end of the year did them in.
March 16, 2008

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