It’s finally March and that means tournament time in college basketball.  It also means teams across the country are sweating out life inside the bubble, and whether or not they will get a coveted invite to the NCAA tournament.  Every game becomes almost a do-or-die proposition.

The final at-large bids in the tournament field are typically seeded either 11th or 12th every year meaning they would square off against a 5- or 6-seed in the first round.  AccuScore pitted eight teams squarely on the bubble against two teams representative of a likely first-round opponent in Marquette and Purdue.  This was done in order to measure the chances these teams could potentially win a game should they receive a bid to the Big Dance.

Next up is Maryland:

Maryland Terrapins
Atlantic Coast Conference
18-12 overall; 8-7 in conference
RPI:    64
SOS:   15

	VS MARQUETTE	VS PURDUE	AVERAGE
MARYLAND	34%	49%	42%

Maryland is hanging on by a thread to tournament hopes, and is really still in contention for a tournament bid only because of the general weakness of the bubble across the country.  In a normal year this Terrapin team would have been left for dead long ago.

Last Saturday’s loss to Clemson was severely damaging to Maryland’s tournament resume.  The Terps held a 20-point lead with less than 12 minutes remaining, but managed to completely collapse down the stretch allowing the Tigers to escape with a three-point win.  Maryland just seems to lack the defense and toughness to be a quality team.  The Terps are solid defensively holding opponents to just 32 percent from three-point range, and 42 percent from inside the arc and James Gist and Bambale Osby provide two quality shotblockers on the backline to erase mistakes.

A real weakness for the team however is their inability to force turnovers, and their own inability to hold onto the ball.  Maryland averages almost 17 turnovers per contest, most in the ACC.  They also ranks just 253rd in the country based on their ability to cause turnovers due to the lack of quickness on the perimeter with Grevis Vasquez and Eric Hayes.

In a potential opening game, Maryland would be able to pull off an upset potentially, like all other teams, based on match-ups.  The Terrapins lack depth so playing a team with a deep guard rotation that can pressure defensively would be a death knell for them as with the case with Marquette.  Gist and Osby are long and athletic, but they are not able to effectively handle low post scorers given their propensity to get into foul trouble.  If this team does manage to sneak into the tournament, they are likely one and out.