It’s finally March and that means tournament time in college basketball.  It also means teams across the country are sweating out life inside the bubble, and whether or not they will get a coveted invite to the NCAA tournament.  Every game becomes almost a do-or-die proposition.

The final at-large bids in the tournament field are typically seeded either 11th or 12th every year meaning they would square off against a 5- or 6-seed in the first round.  AccuScore pitted eight teams squarely on the bubble against two teams representative of a likely first-round opponent in Marquette and Purdue.  This was done in order to measure the chances these teams could potentially win a game should they receive a bid to the Big Dance.

First up is Florida:

Florida Gators
Southeastern Conference
21-8 overall; 8-6 in conference
RPI:    63
SOS:   111

	VS MARQUETTE	VS PURDUE	AVERAGE
FLORIDA	43%	45%	44%

The Gators’ statistical profile is fairly good leading to a more than respectable 44 percent chance of winning an opening round contest in the tournament.  The numbers are misleading however due to an incredibly weak schedule where they feasted on lesser opponents.  Florida’s best nonconference win was against Temple on a neutral floor.  The next best victory was against Georgia Southern which really says volumes about the toughness (or lack thereof) of the schedule.  Conference play has not helped either as the SEC ranks just fifth in the RPI.

Coach Billy Donovan set up an easy schedule in order to give his young team time to gel in the wake of losing the top six players off his back-to-back championship squads.  The Gators have only one upperclassmen on the roster in junior guard Walter Hodge.  Every other player is either a freshman or sophomore led by the multi-talented wing Nick Calathes, point guard Jai Lucas, and big man Marreese Speights.  The scheduling strategy may backfire on Donovan however as it has robbed the Gators of an opportunity to garner a marquee win, and has weighed down the profile numbers.

Florida will have a huge opportunity on Wednesday when they host Tennessee in order to get a true marquee victory.  A win over the Vols would likely send this team to the dance.  A loss means a season-ending win at Kentucky is absolutely vital as well as probably a run in the SEC tournament.  A .500 record in a weak SEC will not be enough to earn a bid.