It’s finally March and that means tournament time in college basketball.  It also means teams across the country are sweating out life inside the bubble, and whether or not they will get a coveted invite to the NCAA tournament.  Every game becomes almost a do-or-die proposition.

The final at-large bids in the tournament field are typically seeded either 11th or 12th every year meaning they would square off against a 5- or 6-seed in the first round.  AccuScore pitted eight teams squarely on the bubble against two teams representative of a likely first-round opponent in Marquette and Purdue.  This was done in order to measure the chances these teams could potentially win a game should they receive a bid to the Big Dance.

Today we look at the Sun Devils ahead of their huge bubble contest against Oregon:

Arizona State
Pac-10 Conference
18-10 overall; 8-8 in conference
RPI:    66
SOS:   62

	VS MARQUETTE	VS PURDUE	AVERAGE
ARIZONA STATE	26%	30%	28%

Herb Sendek has engineered an amazing turnaround in the desert in just two short seasons.  Arizona State won just eight games all of last year, but right now they stand in very good position to make the NCAA tournament.  The Sun Devils have eight wins in the Pac-10, and barring an inexplicable loss to Oregon State on Saturday, is guaranteed of at least a .500 record in the best conference in the nation.  They are 7-7 against the RPI top 100, and although the nonconference schedule was very weak they avoided any bad losses going a perfect 10-0 against sub-150 RPI teams.  They also not only took down Xavier at home, but blew them out by 22.  Add all that up and the Sun Devils have done more than enough to earn a bid.

Tonight’s game against Oregon is more important for the Ducks than for the Devils, but a win would certainly solidify a spot, and help with seeding.  Arizona State is in terrific shape, and may receive as high as a nine or a ten seed.  As for whether or not this team can win an opening round game, the simulation numbers do not tell the whole story.  While a winning percentage of 28 against our hypothetical five/six seeds does not look good, the Sun Devils have proven they are capable of winning against opponents of this caliber with their victories over Xavier and Stanford.

This team plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation employing an efficient offense with a tricky match-up zone defense.  If ASU is matched up with an undisciplined team or one that lacks shooters it easily could pull off an upset.  Jeff Pendergraph provides the only real size inside, and most often surrounded by four guards.  Derek Glasser has proven steady at point guard, and is a reliable shooter when open.  Ty Abbot is dead-eye from long range, but is also very streaky. 

Superstar freshman James Harden is the real engine that makes this team go.  The lefty from Artesia is clearly, in my opinion, the best freshman guard in the Pac-10 and one of the best players in the league.  That includes his more hyped peers Jerryd Bayless from Arizona and O.J. Mayo from USC.  Harden is less heralded, but his play transforms this team entirely when he is on the floor.  Bayless and Mayo are more flashy, but Harden is simply a winner and he knows that basketball is played on both ends of the floor.  He is a player capable of winning a game against a quality opponent all by himself.   Look for Harden as a breakout candidate nationally in the tournament, and for him to be drafted very highly very soon in the NBA.