| Final Four Produces Superior Two |
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You’d like to think that experience, like the kind UCLA had heading to its third straight Final Four, or heart and effort, epitomized by Tyler Hansbrough, were the most important factors when picking between two equally talented teams. The Final Four games proved that these intangibles, at least for one year, can’t overcome the factors: bigger, faster, stronger. The bigger, faster, and stronger Memphis and Kansas teams overwhelmed the “experienced, tougher-minded, harder-working” UCLA and North Carolina teams. I use quotes because there was no indication that UCLA or North Carolina were harder working or tougher-minded than Memphis or Kansas. Watching these games I felt like I was watching a track and field event where the winner was based on which team had the better combination of strength, speed and size. The Championship game opened as a pick in Vegas. As I’m writing this, the public is slightly with Memphis who is now a 1 point favorite. AccuScore simulations actually have Kansas as a 1 point favorite. It’s pretty obvious that everyone expects this game to actually live up to the hype and not result in a massive blow-out like Saturday’s games. WHY MEMPHIS CAN WIN I definitely understand why more people are picking Memphis than Kansas. The two best players in this game are both on Memphis. These are Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose. Douglas-Roberts reminds me of a much better shooting Stacey Augmon (when UNLV blew out Duke, not when they got upset by Duke and in the NBA). He is a plastic man like defender while also being the best finisher and slasher in the country. Derrick Rose plays like Baron Davis without the bad shots. He is not only a very good shooter, finisher, and passer, but he also can physically dominate and intimidate the other team’s point guard. Rose obviously wanted to fit into the team concept this year and held back his personal production (around 14.5 points, 4.5 assists in the regular season) in order to endear himself to the rest of the team. Now that a Championship is on the line, he is doing what is best for the team and for himself which is absolutely dominate the Final Four like no point guard ever has since Magic Johnson in ’79 and then parlay that into being the #1 Pick in the NBA Draft. [If the Miami Heat can actually pair Rose with a healthy Dwayne Wade, it would turn around Miami in a flash. Even Pat Riley would not abandon that team.] Any team with the two best players on the floor and great depth and defense has more than a good chance of winning the game. …SO WHY DOES ACCUSCORE HAVE KANSAS AS THE SLIGHT FAVORITE? Checking out the simulation boxscore (average of all simulations) I see a dead-lock in most statistical categories. Both teams are shooting 47% on 57 field goal attempts. Kansas is hitting more three pointers (6.5 to 5.2), but Memphis is averaging 1.2 more rebounds and 1 fewer turnover to off-set the Kansas perimeter shooting advantage. In simulations, Kansas is winning because Memphis is shooting 16-24 from the free throw line (66 percent) while Kansas is 72 percent from the free throw line. Besides the domination of Derrick Rose, the big story for Memphis is how they have transformed into a good free throw shooting in the Tournament. After shooting around 62 percent all season, they were 30 for 36 against Texas and then followed that up with 87 percent (20-23) against UCLA!! When determining how well players will shoot in simulations, the AccuScore computer does put more emphasis on games that were played recently or against competition that is comparable to a team’s upcoming opponent which is why Memphis is up to 66 percent shooting in simulations despite shooting 62 percent over their first 34 games. However, 2 or 3 games of great free throw shooting cannot overcome 35 bad games. It does not take a mathematical genius to see that if Memphis shot nearly 80 percent as a team on average then they would go 19 for 24 from the line and score 2 or 3 more points per simulation. They would go from being a 1 point underdog in simulations to a 1 to 1.5 point favorite per simulation. I do not want to give the impression that this game comes solely down to how well or poorly Memphis plays. I have always thought that Kansas was the most talented team in the country. When you include third string Center, Cole Aldrich (8 pts, 7 reb in 17 min against UNC), Kansas has 8 players who could earn an NBA paycheck. UCLA’s Kevin Love struggled to get the ball and produce against the strong, long Memphis defenders. The Kansas big men can more than match Memphis’ length and strength on the inside. Brandon Rush is the only defender of the Final Four Teams who has the size and speed to at least contain Chris Douglas-Roberts. I do not think that the Kansas guards can stop Derrick Rose’s penetration. However, Kansas can do two things that UCLA and Texas could not do. 1. BIG MEN FORCE ROSE TO PASS AND THEN HACK MEMPHIS: Rose is an amazing finisher, but the Kansas Big Men should be able to make his driving lay-ups even tougher to make than the less athletic Kevin Love and smaller Luc Richard Mbah-A Moute did. If Rose looks to dish rather than take a tough shot then Kansas has the depth to hack Joey Dorsey or Robert Dozier. Memphis’ has improved their free throw shooting because these two only have 1 free throw attempt in the last 2 games combined. Rose has been able to finish with spectacular driving lay-ups, but if Kansas can force the pass then it will be up to the Memphis Big Men to finish on the inside or at the line. If that happens, Memphis could revert back to their 62 percent shooting from the stripe. 2. KANSAS GUARDS PLAY SMARTER THAN DARREN COLLISON: Like Darren Collison, Kansas’ Mario Chalmers, Sherron Collins and Russell Robinson do not have the size and strength to stop Derrick Rose, but they have the quickness to get out on the break if Rose penetrates. Kansas could have a chance of getting a few easy baskets even off made Memphis baskets. I also have to assume that the Kansas guards will not get caught off-guard and forget to protect the back-court when one of them penetrates. A couple times when Russell Westbrook drove the hoop, Collison forgot to get back and defend against a Memphis fast-break. Kansas will be more aware of the need to get back on defense and they have the depth to not get tired. REMEMBER THAT NOVEMBER 25, 2006 GAME VS FLORIDA? After watching the games, looking at the simulation stats, and analyzing match-ups I am personally no closer to making a pick on this game than when I started. When two teams are evenly matched I usually take the team with the best NBA Player, which is Memphis and Derrick Rose. So to make a pick I’m going to go against traditional statistical analysis and focus on 2 games that stand out in my memory. I can’t shake Memphis losing at home to Tennessee. Tennessee was #1 after that win, but they weren’t nearly as good as this Kansas team. Rose dominated that game for Memphis but they still lost. Why? Tennessee, for all their faults (bad defense, turnovers), had the length and athleticism to keep up with Memphis. Kansas has the length and athleticism to stay with Memphis and even if Rose scores a lot of points, they could win the game just like Tennessee did. I also remember a game from 2006 where these same Kansas players had around 70 fewer games of experience, but still beat two-time National Champion Florida on a neutral court. In that game, Brandon Rush held Corey Brewer to 4 for 14 from the field and Darrell Arthur dominated Joakhim Noah and Al Horford with 19 points and 9 rebounds in just 16 minutes! Corey Brewer was built and played a lot like Chris Douglas-Roberts. Rush had the size, athleticism and defensive ability to frustrate Brewer. He is physically up to the task of keeping up with Douglas-Roberts. Darrell Arthur has yet to play as well as he did in 16 minutes against Florida. However, he has the talent to be the second best player on the floor, after Rose. Arthur is also looking to leap to the NBA. Kansas is too balanced for him to have the stats to merit lottery status. However, if he comes out and can dominate offensively and defensively on the biggest stage he can instantly raise his NBA stock to lottery status. There are tens of millions of dollars on the line and I think that could motivate Arthur to have a great game. So if I only think about these two comparable games that stand out in my memory I take Kansas to beat Memphis. Trackback(0)
Comments (7)
borat
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very nice |
UCLA
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           I think USC will win |
Chuck (St. Louis)
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Okay. Then here's the emotion: Memphis is a poser. |
SportsKnut626
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Memphis will Kick butt |
Chuck (St. Louis)
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I think Accuscore is interesting, and that it DOES show probabilities. Obviously, if you run all those simulations, it means that there are many different possibilities, and that, likely, ONE of those possibilities will play out on the court. But it gives us an interesting picture, beyond our emotions. |
oh_steve
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IKNOWU, learn to spell mentally, before calling someone mentally retarded. More importantly, remember the simulations show probabilities, not picks. While UNC and UCLA did win over 50% of simulations, Kansas and Memphis both won nearly 50%. The key to using AccuScore is to look at the baseline forecasts (like the baseline free throw shooting) and use your own "expertise" to identify those factors that may go against the baseline. For example, if you think Memphis would go 90% from the line then as I said, you'd clearly expect Memphis to win. I think even someone as "smart" as you would agree, that an objective, statistics based computer cannot immediately grant Memphis 80% free throw shooting after they shot 62% over their first 34 games. However, you can grant that level of performance and make the conclusion that you are making. What we are providing is a mathematical picture of why Memphis is favored by odds-makers and why Kansas could upset them. If you think Memphis will shoot 50% from the field, have a huge advantage in turnover margin, shoot over 80% from the line then you would obviously pick Memphis. If you are a Kansas fan and think they will hold Memphis to 40% from the field and maybe you think Brandon Rush will go 5 for 7 from the three point line, then you feel good about your team. AccuScore is providing the baseline -- you guys should provide your analysis on top of it. |
IKNOWU
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Well accuscore had both UCLA and NC winning the games so why start to trust it now... if the accuscore simulations are using memphis shooting 16/24 free throws they are mentaly retarded.. memphis will win. |
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