One of college basketball’s biggest rivalries will write another chapter as No.2 Duke takes on No.3 North Carolina.  Both teams have the look of Final Four contenders and with the ACC in a down year overall, this contest will take on even greater importance as the biggest test for each team before the postseason.

This key factor in this game is the health, or lack thereof, of Tar Heel point guard Ty Lawson.  The sophomore sprained his ankle in the first five minutes of an overtime win at Florida State and is unlikely to play tonight.  The Heels struggled throughout against the Seminoles dishing out just 9 assists as a team with 22 turnovers.  In fact, the three games that Lawson has missed the majority of (against BYU, Ohio State, and Florida State) were the three worst offensive performances by the Heels with regards to offensive efficiency.

Clearly, Lawson is the key player for North Carolina.  As the point guard he keys the offense, and his speed, quickness, and decision-making spark the vaunted transition game.  He also spearheads the defense putting great ball-pressure on opposing guards.  The Tar Heels are already not a great defensive team, and they should be even worse without Lawson in the lineup.

AccuScore baseline simulations (with Lawson healthy) have North Carolina as the big favorite winning better than 80% of the time by nearly 13 point.  Without Lawson in the lineup however, the game becomes much closer with Carolina’s primary edge coming from its home court advantage.

According to our numbers, Lawson is worth 14 percentage points and six points against Duke.  The Blue Devils have a plethora of talent on the perimeter, but have very little inside.  Freshman Kyle Singler is their biggest player and the closest thing to a post player on the team, yet he is much more comfortable on the perimeter as a face-up forward. 

The presence of Tyler Hansborough inside for the Heels is keeping them as a pretty healthy favorite.  In both scenarios, Hansborough is scoring just about 27 points and 12 rebounds.  His numbers are not affected very much with the loss of Lawson due to the huge match-up problem he presents for Duke.  The biggest hit for the Heels will be with Lawson’s replacement Quinten Thomas.

If Lawson started and played tonight he would project to score 15 points with 7 assists.  His pressure on the perimeter would also help his team win the turnover battle by nearly eight.  Thomas is forecasted to put up significantly worse numbers with three points and just three assists.  More importantly, the turnover margin for UNC drops to just plus three.

Duke’s perimeter oriented game is predicated on lots of motion, and a drive-and-kick game off penetration that leads to either points at the rim or open threes.  The Devils also extend pressure out on the perimeter on the defensive end trying to force turnovers and get points in transition.  Thomas is not nearly on the same level as Lawson as a ballhandler and playmaker, and the numbers clearly bear that out.

With as much passion that is put into this rivalry anything can happen no matter the disparity in talent or skill.  That means even though Carolina is the big favorite, it was clear that Duke could win even if Lawson were healthy.  He is not and is likely not to play, and now I see this game being almost a toss-up with Carolina getting the edge playing in the Dean Dome.