AccuScore - Why Elton Brand Picked Philly

Why Elton Brand Picked Philly

Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst
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Clipper fans will tell you that Elton Brand left the Clippers for the Sixers because he wanted more money and his agent David Falk needed to get his revenge on Mike Dunleavy for apparently circumventing him and making deals with Brand without Falk’s influence. While these reasons may be true, there are legitimate on the court reasons for Brand wanting to play with the up and coming Sixers. After the Baron Davis trade, AccuScore simulations indicated that the Clippers with Brand could expect a 25 game improvement, 48 wins in 2008-2009 which made them a borderline playoff contender in the West. /p>

The Sixers finished last season under .500 (40 wins), but they were one of the hottest teams in the second half of the season. With Elton Brand and continued improvement from young players like Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young the Sixers could improve by 16 wins which would be 56 whopping games in the Eastern Conference.

The chart below shows the Sixers’ simulation winning percentage against the Top 4 Eastern Conference teams from last season (Boston, Detroit, Orlando, Cleveland). Brand improved the Sixers’ winning percentage by an average of 19 percentage points. When you extrapolate 19 percentage points over 82 games it translates to nearly 16 additional wins.

SIXERS	BOS	@BOS	DET	@DET	ORL	@ORL	CLE	@CLE	AVG
NO BRAND	41%	17%	41%	17%	48%	25%	67%	27%	35%
WITH BRAND	61%	34%	63%	37%	69%	44%	83%	46%	55%
IMPROVEMENT	20%	17%	22%	20%	21%	19%	16%	19%	19%

Brand is having this significant an impact because he fits in perfectly with the Sixers’ needs:

DEFENSIVE UPGRADE: Despite having an intimidating shot-blocker at Center, Samuel Dalembert, and a willing, lock-down perimeter defender in Andre Iguodala the Sixers were a mediocre defensive team. They were just 18^th in the league in defensive field goal percentage and 14^th in rebounding margin. Elton Brand is not just a great shot-blocker, he is a great help defender who often shocks opposing big men who never quite realize how long his arms are. At least twice a game it seems that players that are 3 or 4 inches taller think they are about to score an easy layup only to have Brand barely seem to jump but still reject their shot. More importantly, Brand is great at redirecting the blocked shot to a teammate rather than throw the ball into the crowd. Brand is also one of the best rebounders in the league. With Brand, the Sixers can expect to be a Top 10 team in key defensive categories.

LOW POST AND MID-RANGE SCORING: Elton Brand is a 20 point scorer who is capable of averaging 25 points if needed. His injuries may have hurt the Clippers but it could help the Sixers. Brand’s offensive game grew by leaps and bounds when he was able to develop a devastatingly consistent mid-range shot. In 2005-2006 Brand looked more like Moses Malone who not only used his size and strength to score off offensive rebounds, but also mixed in easy 15 footers to become a top scorer in the league. Andre Iguodala had some horrendous shooting performances in the playoffs against Detroit. He may not only be ready to handle the pressure of being a team’s #1 scorer, but he may not have the offensive talent to be that (he is Pippen, not Jordan). Elton Brand has proven he can put up huge numbers in the playoffs. Just take a look at his stats against Phoenix in the 2006. With his injuries he was left with little else to do but ride an exercise bike and shoot jumpers all day long (bad for Clippers, good for Philly).

Of course this rosy picture for Philadelphia relies on Elton Brand to stay healthy. He has a history of injuries going back to his freshman year in college and he has to deal with Clipper fans’ curses. The good news is that even if Brand misses 10 to 15 games, he could still help Philly win 10 more games which would get them to the 50 win level. With Detroit potentially rebuilding rather than play second fiddle in the conference it is not inconceivable that Philly could vault ahead of Cleveland, Orlando and even Detroit.

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