Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst
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NEW ORLEANS HORNETS VS SAN ANTONIO SPURS
(Hornets 55.1% Favorites)

Stephen Oh’s Take:
I bet EVERY expert takes San Antonio in this series and it makes plenty of sense. They have 100 times as much experience and they just beat Phoenix in 5 games. Before I give my pick let me explain why AccuScore simulations favor the Hornets. The teams split the season series and both teams won on the other team’s home court. The Hornets won their games by 20+ points. They had a better regular season record, and just had their own impressive five game series win in the playoffs over Dallas. If you look at the overall records and average margin of victory on the road and at home this is a dead even match-up. When you factor in the Hornets’ home court advantage then you end up with New Orleans being favored in simulations.

I am also going to take the Hornets. Experience is a result of winning. Winning is a result of being good. Experience is a by-product of being good for a long period of time; it is NOT the reason why you are good for a long period of time. I don’t think the Spurs are playing as well as their 4-1 series victory over the Suns indicated. You could argue that Phoenix was the better team in 6 of the 10 halves against San Antonio. The Hornets were dominant in 7 of 10 halves against the Mavericks, and I don’t think they will be intimidated by the Spurs. I do think that the only way the Hornets come through is if they win the first two games at home. If they lose Game 1 or 2 I’ll ask the editor to take down this column.

Jonathan Lee’s Take
The Hornets are an impressive young team. They managed to fly under the radar with everyone doubting how good they were despite a sparkling 56-26 regular season record. Chris Paul is a legitimate MVP candidate, and I think he’s the best point guard on the planet. But I’m still taking the Spurs in this series. I just think New Orleans is still a year away from being a true championship contender.

My biggest reason for picking San Antonio is that the Hornets don’t have anybody to deal with either Tim Duncan or Manu Ginobili. Tyson Chandler is an athletic shot blocker and rebounder, but Duncan is one of the greatest post players of all time. Duncan will be able to score down low, and on the perimeter. Chandler also does not pose a significant offensive threat that would force Duncan to expend energy on the defensive end. New Orleans actually does have Julian Wright to use against Ginobili, and the rookie out of Kansas was terrific against Dallas. Byron Scott would be hard-pressed however to leave him out on the floor for 25-30 minutes as a defensive stopper. Wright is still prone to inconsistencies and lapses, and is still not a reliable jump shooter. He will make some spectacular plays, but he won’t be able to hang with Ginobili over a seven game series. Outside of Wright, that leaves Bonzi Wells, Morris Peterson, and Peja Stojakovic to defend on the perimeter. Those guys aren’t slowing down Ginobili.

The playoffs are all about finding and exploiting match-ups and advantages. San Antonio has two massive ones on the wing and in the post. Chris Paul gives the Hornets an edge at point guard, but he will have to chase around Tony Parker as well. The Spurs also have bigger players like Bruce Bowen to throw at Paul to try and bother him. San Antonio is too tough, and too well coached to lose to the Hornets in this series. New Orleans will have home court advantage, but that clearly does not faze a team like San Antonio. Spurs in six.

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TPiranha said:

Good call so far Stephen Oh. A question: Is that "Hornets 55.1% Favorites" the number AccuScore had given before the series started. If so, where can I find that before the next series.

May 07, 2008

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