Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREVIEW – ROUND 1

Stephen Oh’s Take
If you looked at your typical fantasy statistics and this was the start of the season you would not think the Lakers were significantly better than Denver and many would have taken this Nuggets squad over the Lakers back in November. However, the fantasy stats do not reflect team defense and the Nuggets are horrendous in this area. The Lakers can have defensive lapses, but I do not expect them in the playoffs. The Lakers are heavy 87 percent favorites even without Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza who are not included in these simulations. Denver’s talent and success at home should help them avoid a sweep and I like them to win 2 games to keep this respectable, but I think the series will be over in Game 6 at Denver.

Zach Rosenfield’s Take
Among all the great teams in the NBA’s Western Conference, the Lakers have to feel great about their first round draw. The Denver Nuggets are a solid, balanced basketball team that also puts the fear into nobody. I have to agree with Stephen’s thoughts that the Nuggets can gage success in this year’s playoffs if they are able to avoid a sweep. I think Carmelo Anthony’s off the court issues casts a dark cloud on Denver’s late season run and I just don’t feel that they have the the drive and direction that the Lakers have. I am taking the Lakers in five games.

Jonathan Lee’s Take
Denver has two elite scorers in Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony. Marcus Camby is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. George Karl is a proven coach that has plenty of playoff experience having reached the finals with Seattle. So why is nobody scared of the Nuggets? The team has all the talent in the world and plays a flashy offensive style, yet has absolutely zero chemistry. The defense isn’t as poor as its points allowed suggests. The Nuggets rank 29th in the NBA in that category, but the defense is probably actually a little bit above average. The thing that kills this team is that they just don’t seem committed to playing winning basketball. Everybody is out to get theirs. The exact opposite is true of the new Kobe Bryant-Pau Gasol era Lakers. Everybody now knows their role in L.A. and the pieces fit perfectly. Denver will put up points, and might steal a game or two but the Lakers will win this series comfortably.

Stephen Oh’s Take
Many experts will take Dallas because of their experience and their relatively strong close to the season. As I write this line I have not made up my mind, but hopefully a decision will be made in a few seconds. The Hornets are solid 62 percent favorites in simulations because the computer does not have a good quantitative way of simulating the impact of relative experience. If you were to just use the statistics from this year and an objective evaluation of strengths and weaknesses combined with their home court advantage, the Hornets should be favored. I am going to go ahead and pick the Hornets. Experience may be vital to win a Conference Championship or the Finals, but as Golden State proved last season, you do not necessarily need a ton of experience to rattle Nowitzki and get Josh Howard, Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse to take a few ill-advised shots. Despite the difference in experience I like Chris Paul to out-play Jason Kidd because he will be able to penetrate on Kidd and get into the lane for easy baskets and assists.

Zach Rosenfield’s Take
“Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on me.” A year after embarrassing themselves in the first round of the playoffs, the Dallas Mavericks are back in the playoffs, albiet under different circumstances. As the No.7 seed in the West, nobody really expects Dallas to make much noise, and that is why I am picking them. Despite winning only 38 percent of the simulations and starting an aging point guard who can’t keep up with the younger Chris Paul, I can’t get away from Dallas in this series. I think home court counts for a lot and Dallas has an advantage when hosting games in American Airlines Arena. I think the Hornets are a great story, but I am not willing to concede them anything until they prove that their great play can translate to the post season. I am going to take the Mavericks in six, but would not be surprised to see the Hornets win in five.

Jonathan Lee’s Take How much does experience count in the playoffs? Here we have the perfect test case to find out with New Orleans squaring off against Dallas. The Mavericks are in the opposite position they were last year coming in as the seven seed instead of being a title favorite. They have started to play much better of late beating Golden State, Phoenix, Utah, and New Orleans in April. I certainly don’t expect another epic meltdown like last season against the Warriors. Dallas can’t afford another first-round exit. If it happens, it might signal the end for the current iteration of the team. The Hornets quietly played excellent basketball all season behind one of the greatest season’s ever by a point guard in Chris Paul (21.1 ppg, 11.1 apg, 2.7 spg, 48.8% FG). He, along with David West, has powered the Hornets all the way to the second seed. The playoffs are a different animal however, and match-ups and weaknesses are exploiting in each and every game. I believe the experience factor does matter, and that Dallas has finally figured out how to play effectively with Jason Kidd in the lineup. The Hornets do not have the big bruising players to punish Dallas inside. I see Dallas winning a close series that goes the full seven games.

Stephen Oh’s Take
I thought last year’s series was going to be the most entertaining and intriguing series I had ever seen until David Stern decided to temporarily kill my love of the NBA by not rigidly sticking to the rules and suspending Amare Stoudamire. The great thing is that I will get a second chance at seeing a phenomenal series despite Stern’s idiocy. This series is even more intriguing with Shaq facing Duncan. The simulations have San Antonio winning 58 percent of the time. This makes sense given their home court advantage. However, Phoenix has proven they can win big games on the road. I think both teams will win on each other’s home court and we will get to a Game 7. Manu Ginobili is hurt but will play. By Game 7 he could be seriously slowed down by injury because I cannot imagine Shaq not sending him and Parker hard to the floor at least twice each. The flagrant fouls would probably be worth it if you are a Suns fan. If Ginobili is 80% then I like San Antonio to pull out Game 7, but if he is not then I think Nash and Amare get their big win over the Spurs. Since I think Ginobili will have injury issues I am taking the Suns in 7.

Zach Rosenfield’s Take
This is by far the best series of the first round and defines just how tough the Western Conference is. Spurs and Suns in the first round! I only hope it goes all seven games and we get some good, clean officiating this time around. I read an article last week where a member of the Spurs team said he was not concerned with seeding because they know who they are as a team. And that really resonates with me as they get ready to play the Suns; a team who is still searching for an identity. If this series was pre-trade and the Suns still had Marion, I would give Phoenix the nod. But Steve Kerr’s trade for Shaq has pointed out the big man’s weaknesses and has slowed down a team that had such great on-court chemistry. When breaking down this series, I think many of the position-by-position match-ups are even. So I have to go to intangibles and that is Shaq will continue to hurt the Suns and the Spurs are better coached. I am going to take San Antonio in five games because I think the Suns will not be able to handle adversity.

Jonathan Lee’s Take
Clearly the premier match-up in the first round, it is just a shame these two teams have to square off so early. Phoenix and San Antonio would be a worthy conference final, but instead one of them will go home without so much as winning a series. Similar to Dallas, the Suns took awhile to adjust to the presence of Shaq in their lineup, but everything seems to be going full throttle now. He was specifically acquired to improve Phoenix’s match-up with San Antonio with the playoffs, and now everybody will get to see if Steve Kerr’s gamble was correct. Shaq has dramatically improved the Suns’ rebounding without hurting the offense or running game. The trade appears to have worked out, but it won’t be accepted as such without a win in this series. The Spurs are getting old, and while they are still “the Spurs” I think they are much more vulnerable than they have been in recent years. Role players like Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, Brent Barry, and Robert Horry are clearly slowing down and it remains to be seen if Ime Udoka or Damon Stoudamire have that “championship DNA” that San Antonio has so clearly displayed in the past. Manu Ginobili’s health is the wild card in this series. If he is slowed at all from a late season groin injury, the Suns will have a major advantage. The Spurs absolutely need Ginobili to be a force scoring the basketball. I believe the winner of this series will reach the Western Conference Finals. I’ll take Phoenix in six.

UTAH JAZZ VS HOUSTON ROCKETS
(Jazz 55.7% Favorites)

Stephen Oh’s Take
This is the only series where the team with home court advantage is not winning over 50 percent of simulations and it is not hard to understand why Utah is expected to win and why I agree with the forecast. First, Utah beat the Rockets last year despite losing the first 2 games of that series. Utah is better this season than last with the addition of Kyle Korver and another year of experience for young leaders Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Ronnie Brewer and Paul Milsap. Despite their massive winning streak, Houston is worse off this year without Yao Ming and Rafer Alston for at least the first few games of the series. Even Vegas barely has Houston favored to win at home (just a 1 pt favorite in Game 1). Utah is a dominant 37-4 this year at home so I do not expect them to drop any of their home games. They have to go 1 for 4 in Houston to take this series and I like those odds for Utah.

Zach Rosenfield’s Take
Throughout their long winning streak, pundits and experts conceded the Rockets little because they have never won a playoff series in the Tracy McGrady era. As the Rockets get ready for the Utah Jazz, I think things are about to change in Houston. Despite having the homecourt advantage, Houston is still a statistical underdog against the Jazz. However, I still like Houston’s make-up and feel that they finally have their legs under them without Yao Ming. I think Houston will win both games at home and will be able to steal one in Salt Lake City. If they do so, I like Houston in five.

Jonathan Lee’s Take
Houston has defied all expectations through team work and chemistry. Outside of Tracy McGrady, the roster is completely devoid of anybody close to resembling an All-Star. McGrady of course has never made it out of the first round, and it won’t be happening this year either. The Jazz are one of the best teams in the NBA no matter how you look at it. The Kyle Korver deal transformed this team into a well-oiled offensive machine. Carlos Boozer is deadly inside, and Deron Williams continues to make the Jazz look fine for passing Chris Paul in the 2005 draft. Houston not only has to deal with the absence of Yao Ming, but Rafer Alston is hobbled and may miss time during the series. Even with him on the court, there is still no one that is physical enough to defend Williams for seven games. Dikembe Mutombo has once again found the fountain of youth, but that can’t last with him having to chase Boozer and Mehmet Okur all over the floor. Utah in six.

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bli112 said:

lakers vr"s spurs

April 25, 2008

jazzed justin said:

Sorry Houston, you are out of gas!!! (just listen to McGrady's game 2… post game interview) Furthermore, you are walking straight into Dante’s Inferno... so you might as well Go to South Padre Island or Galveston and enjoy the beach the playoffs are over for you...

April 23, 2008

Skinnin McKinnon said:

I think it is plain to see the difference between someone who thrives under pressure (LeBron James) and someone who chokes (Tracey McGrady)

April 21, 2008

joshe said:

and what about the points?

April 21, 2008

Devo said:

I think Utah is hard to predict because they are such a small market. Watch out for this team, just because you don't see them on sports center doesn't mean they can't play. They are going to be headache's for the powers in the west.... Don't sleep on the jazz.

April 20, 2008

honedog said:

So much for Houston's home court Josh. It's not happening this year either. Don't feel bad, Zach completely missed it as well. Jazz in five.

April 19, 2008

JoshLG said:

Plain and simple McGrady has not been able to make it out the first round but there is not a player in this series on either tea i would rather have then Mcgrady entering a seven game series with home court advantage. Mcgrady knows its time to leave it out on the court. He will shoot jumpers over double teams and when he is ht you will not beat the rockets. Only difference this year is Mcgrady will take it to the rack if he is cold. blood, sweat, and no teers for Mcgrady. This is the year he advances.

April 19, 2008

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