Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
View Blog

Perhaps one of the most unlikely feats in major sports history occurred in the NBA this month yet went almost entirely unnoticed. The player accomplished the feat in complete anonymity, and most basketball fans would have trouble even recognizing him if he walked by on the street.

Jose Calderon, point guard for the Toronto Raptors, recorded 66 assists with only a single turnover over 8 games in April. He followed up that incredible streak with 8 more assists without a turnover in the first playoff game against Orlando. He finally coughed up the ball on a bad pass at the end of the first quarter in Game 2, but not before notching two more assists. That brought his total to 76 straight assists with just a single turnover. At first glance the feat might seem not so impressive, but becomes more mind-boggling when delving into the numbers.

Turnovers are commonplace in basketball. It takes only a single moment of lost concentration, a bad cut by a teammate, or some defensive pressure to lead to a single turnover. NBA teams turn the ball over between 11 and 15 percent of their total possessions throughout the course of every game. Calderon, as a point guard, handles the ball more often than not when on the floor. His ability to maintain possession of the ball and to make the correct decisions about when to pass or shoot is invaluable to the Raptors. He creates easier shots for his teammates while creating more opportunities to score through his ability to simply not give up the ball to the other team. Toronto is much more efficient offensively, and is no worse defensively when he is on the floor than when he is not.

Calderon led the league in assist-to-turnover ratio by a wide margin this season. His 5.38 ratio dwarfed Brevin Knight who was second at 4.62. The streak is incredible when thinking just about Calderon’s numbers. By his own average performance he should have turned the ball over at least 14 times. Instead, he only coughed it up once.

Historically, the best season I could find with regards to assist-to-turnover ratio was turned in by the diminutive Muggsy Bogues in 1989-90. That season, while playing for the Charlotte Hornets, Bogues turned the ball over just once for every 5.94 assists. The season the great John Stockton ever had in this category was the same season when he posted a 4.17 ratio. Using those numbers, the odds of duplicating just Calderon’s regular season feat are incredibly long:

Stockton (89-90): 1 in 1,000,000

Calderon (07-08): 27 in 1,000,000

Bogues (89-90): 55 in 1,000,000

This is done by looking at the chances of completing 66 straight assists with 1 or 0 turnovers based on the players’ assist/turnover ratios. Statistically, this feat is even more difficult to match than even Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hit streak in the major leagues (1 in 100,000)! The fact that Calderon added on to his streak in the playoffs is all the more impressive.

No matter what Gilbert Arenas thinks, Calderon has played at an All-Star level this season. He has put up career numbers in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and minutes, and improved his free throw and three-point percentages. Despite this, he is not the clear starter in Toronto due to the presence of T.J. Ford. Calderon and Ford have been evenly splitting time since Ford returned from injury. In fact, Calderon got his opportunity to start 56 games this season only because Ford suffered an injury following a fall in Atlanta back on December 11.

The Raptors are simply better with Calderon on the floor. According to 82games.com, Calderon is +180 on the season while Ford is -40. Calderon posted positive +/- numbers for all of his teammates except Carlos Delfino, Kris Humphries, and interestingly Ford. Humphries posted negative +/- numbers with all but two of his teammates, and Delfino with only three. Those numbers are more a result of their own poor play rather than any effect of playing with Calderon. The more interesting thing to note is that the two point guards posted the worst plus/minus per 48 minute stat of any player pair for the Toronto (-17). This shows that Sam Mitchell’s decision to only substitute one point guard for the other in the playoffs is a wise decision. What isn’t wise is evenly distributing the minutes. Ford is not a terrible player by any means, but Calderon is better fit for the team. He is a far better shooter from three-point range, and his teammates mesh much better with his pass-first style. Simply put, he needs to play more minutes at the expense of Ford. Calderon played the entire fourth quarter in game two, and he got the ball to Chris Bosh for a shot to win the game. Ford has scored just 11 points on 2-fo-17 from the field in the first two contests. Calderon should be playing 35 minutes a game for the Raptors with the balance going to Ford if they want to get back in this series. This would improve Toronto’s chances but it may already be too late because of the 0-2 deficit.

Re-signing Calderon should be the first priority in the offseason for Toronto (he is a restricted free agent). The Raptors were plus 3.7 net points per 100 possessions with Calderon on the floor compared to just plus 0.4 with Ford this season. Clearly, Calderon needs to play. Ford remains a useful player, but his salary ($8.3 million this season) is too expensive for a back-up point guard. He also has a history of injuries, and cannot be counted on to stay healthy for a full season. Toronto should try and trade Ford for draft picks and one or two players and install Calderon as the full-time starter.