Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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By winning Game 3 at home San Antonio climbed back into the series against Los Angeles but the win will mean very little unless it can protect home court.  Even with the victory the Spurs are still underdogs being projected to win the series just 31 percent of the time before Game 4.  This may seem strange considering a win by the defending champions would tie the series, but the numbers make sense.  If the Lakers win they would have a commanding 3-1 advantage, and would only have to win once in three games with two of them at Staples Center.  Essentially, this game is a proverbial must-win for San Antonio.  That phrase gets thrown around much too often in all sports during the playoffs, but in this case it holds true.   The Spurs must win Game Four or their season is over.  

Two players play vital roles for their teams, and can shift the balance of power out West:

The health of Manu Ginobili:  Tim Duncan is the man in the middle, and Tony Parker is the pacesetter, but Ginobili is the true barometer for San Antonio.  His ability scoring ability is essential to balance this team because he is the one player capable of creating his shot from anywhere on the floor.  While Duncan plays in the post, and Parker is a penetrator, Ginobili must be accounted for at all times.  He hit five three-pointers in Game 3, and when he gets into the lane he created open shots on the perimeter for support players like Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, and Brent Barry.  Without Ginobili those role players would never have enough room to get their shot and be effective.  Ginobili looked completely recovered from an ankle and finger issue, but the short rest in between games could be a factor.  The Spurs absolutely need the player that scored 30 points in Game Three, and not the one that was shut down in Los Angeles. 

Which Lamar Odom shows up?:  Odom scored just seven points on 2-11 shooting in the loss Sunday and personally took the blame for the loss.  “There’s no way I can play like that for us to be successful,” Odom said.  “I know I can play better than that.”  He certainly can.  Odom was devastating against both Utah and Denver using his length and quickness to get to the rim at will, and being a terror on the boards and on defense.  Against the Spurs however, he has looked tentative and unsure of what to do when he receives the ball.  It is no coincidence that he had a terrific Game 2 with 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 blocks and the Lakers won by 30.  In the other two games Odom has shot just 5-for-23 from the field and 5-for-12 from the line.  In all fairness, Derek Fisher has not shown up twice this series not so coincidentally in the same games as Odom.  Kobe Bryant can carry the Lakers for stretches, but not an entire game at least not against San Antonio.  He needs his sidekicks Odom and Fisher to figure out how to find some more consistency and be factors in Game 4 and beyond.

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