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Series Shifts to L.A. Print E-mail

Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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All of Boston is taking a collective sigh of relief.  The Celtics dominated the Lakers for 40 minutes in Game 2 of the NBA finals leading by as many as 24 points in the fourth quarter.  And yet, somehow that lead was cut to just two by a furious Laker rally in the final minute of the game.  Boston held on to win 108-102 and maintain homecourt advantage as the series shifts to the west coast.  The Celtics are now 65 percent favorites to be crowned champions, but they should not get too comfortable just yet.  If Los Angeles wins the first two contests at home, certainly not out of the realm of possibility considering their late rally and their superb performances at Staples Center, the Lakers will go back to being the favorites for the title.  Kobe Bryant and company would be projected to win 57 percent of the time of a potential three game series despite the final two games being held in Boston.

Game 2 was clearly a game of momentum.  The Lakers made a run early in the contest pushing out to a quick 15-7 lead.  The margin was short-lived however as Boston took the lead late in the quarter, and ran away with a double-digit advantage that stretched over 20 points over the middle 30 minutes of the game.  Paul Pierce showed no ill effects from his knee injury, and was terrific scoring 28 points on 4-for-4 from 3-point range.  He clearly cannot be defended by either Vladimir Radmanovic or Sasha Vujacic alone.  Trevor Ariza spent a short-stint on Pierce during the first quarter, but he was ineffective on offense that limited his use for the Lakers. 

The real star for Boston was reserve forward Leon Powe.  The former Cal Bear electrified the Garden scoring 21 points in less than 15 minutes of playing time and got to the line 13 times (making 9).  Rajon Rondo benefiting from some hometown scoring compiling 16 assists, but he was fantastic in pushing the tempo off of missed shots and consistently made the right decisions in getting the ball to scorers rather than looking for his own offense.  Rondo took just four shots and scored just four points, but found a way to be extremely effective.

The Lakers fell down by such a huge deficit because of some uncharacteristically poor play.  The Celtics defense has been very good, but L.A. has played into the hands of the defense taking poor shots, being careless with the ball, and not passing the ball in the triangle.  Lamar Odom had his second straight ineffective game scoring just 10 points and racking up 5 fouls by the end of the third.  Pau Gasol was more aggressive on offense, but was beaten up constantly by the Boston frontline on the glass.  Both big men need to show up much more aggressively especially on the boards at home.

Bryant took awhile to get into a rhythm and was visibly angry at his teammates for their poor play.  He kept working however, and caught fire in the fourth as the Lakers hit a record seven three-pointers in the fourth quarter almost completing the greatest comeback in NBA history.  Bryant ended with 30 points and 8 assists, but he was quiet for much of the critical middle third of the game.  The main factor in Boston stretching out its lead by the massive advantage it enjoyed at the free throw line.  The Celtics took 19 free throws in the first half to just two for the Lakers.  They ended up taking 38 shots from the charity stripe (making 27) compared to just 10 for L.A.  In fact, Powe outshot the entire Laker squad from the line (13 to 10).  You can be sure that trend will even out in L.A.

If you’re a Celtics fan you must be ecstatic with how the series has gone so far.  The team defense has been phenomenal, and Pierce and Kevin Garnett are enjoying offensive advantages in one-on-one situations.  Powe and Rondo have provided great energy, and combined with P.J. Brown are nullifying the Laker bench advantage.  Laker fans need to be encouraged by the showing they had late in the fourth quarter.  Despite being heavily outplayed for much of the first two contests, the Lakers still had a chance to win both games.  And, as the numbers show, a couple wins at home will vault them right back into a favorable position.  This series still has a chance to be a redux between the two most storied franchises in basketball, and I would expect nothing less.  See you in L.A.

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AFROMAN said:

 
CELTICS WILL NOT LOOSE BY 9.5 POINTS BUY THE CELTICS FOR 9.5 BUY 1.5 AND MAKE IT 11. PAY YOUR RENT AND YOUR CAR NOTE THIS MONTH ON ME. 8
June 10, 2008

Rigged said:

 
"28 fouls on the Lakers,21 on The Celtics,the disparity comes from the soft approach of the Lakers on offense.You tell me what is more likely to draw a foul?a perimeter jump shot,or a drive to the basket?"

Granted the Lakers were soft. but not THAT soft. They made plenty of drives to the basket only to get non-calls. On the other hand, once Lakers gain momentum in the first quarter, the officials call two touch fouls on Kobe to take him out of the game. For a final blow put the rest of the Lakers key players into foul trouble early. End result is Celtics gain momentum. Tell me, how can a team play hard when every 30 seconds they're getting the whistle blown on them? I know the officials are not perfect. And I still feel the Lakers could of played better. But the officials took them out of the game. How can you call so many fouls against the other team and miss the fouls given by the defensively more aggressive Celtics? Like it or not officials have a huge influence on the game. If your going to call a foul one way, you better be consistent about it.
June 09, 2008

dartthrower said:

 
28 fouls on the Lakers,21 on The Celtics,the disparity comes from the soft approach of the Lakers on offense.You tell me what is more likely to draw a foul?a perimeter jump shot,or a drive to the basket?Change of venue will not matter unless the Lakers change their approach about attacking the basket.I can see a Kobe meltdown moment coming,he is already throwing his teammates under the bus.
June 09, 2008

Brian215 said:

 
This analysis is coming from the same guys who said Rondo would be sitting behind Fisher and Farmar. Rondo has been dominating both guards thru the series and had 16 assists in game 2 alone. Powe outplayed both Gasol and Odom last night. The Lakers are looking like Fakers not willing to fight for rebounds or drive the lane against the Celtic bigs.

Rondo and Allen penetrate at will through the lane and eith kick out or reverse the ball for open threes while the Laker bigs give ground and their gurads wander aimlessly not committing to help or stay with the perimeter shooters.

Los Angeles should be motivated by the home crowd into better effort on the defensive end, keeping the game closer than it has been. If Fisher doesn't improve his play and at least play even to Rondo the Celtics will end this series in LA.
June 09, 2008

Update on Series projections said:

 
Lakers in 4: 0%
Lakers in 5: 0%
Lakers in 6: x.x%
Lakers in 7: x.x%
Celtics in 4, 5, 6, or 7: w.w.%, x.x%, y.y%, z.z.%,
June 09, 2008

Rigged said:

 
Do these accuscore predictions account for the horrible job the referees did in the game? They took the momentum away from the Lakers and decided the game. 10 to 38 is ridiculous. A 4:1 disparity.
June 09, 2008

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