Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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All of Beantown and New England should be happy for several reasons.  The Celtics as a whole played very well, and won Game 1 with a team effort.  Their stars played very well led by Kevin Garnett’s 24 points and 13 rebounds.  Ray Allen continued his shooting renaissance, and had a terrific all-around performance with 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists.  The story of Game 1 was probably Paul Pierce who shook off what looked like a serious knee injury to score 22 points including back-to-back threes to put Boston up for good late in the third quarter.  The Celtics even got great production out of the point guard position with Rajon Rondo and Sam Cassell.  The pair combined for 23 point, with Rondo adding 5 rebounds and 7 assists.  The terrific team defense predicated on rotations, hedges, and help was ever present and helped force the Lakers to shoot just 41.6 percent from the field.

The Lakers led for a good portion of the game, but ultimately could not hold the lead in a hostile environment.  While they may be disappointed, there is still plenty of reason for optimism for Phil Jackson and his team.  As well as they have been playing recently, L.A.’s performance on Thursday was subpar.  Kobe Bryant had a poor shooting night going just 9-26 from the field.  Some of that is attributable to the Boston defense, but everybody knows that when Bryant is on his game there is little anyone can do to stop him.  Forward Vladimir Radmanovic provided very little playing just 17 minutes due to foul trouble.  Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom looked passive at times particularly on the boards snagging just 14 caroms between them.  The vaunted Lakers bench also provided very little outside of eight points from Sasha Vujacic.  And yet, with all this the Lakers held the lead late into the third quarter and still had a shot to win it at the end of the fourth.  

The knee injury to Paul Pierce will remain a concern for the Celtics.  He looked fine on Thursday scoring half of his points after returning to the game.  Pierce still was diagnosed with a knee sprain however, and there is always the possibility it could stiffen or get worse between now and Sunday.  Any hindrance to his mobility was take away from his ability to penetrate and slow his performance on the defensive end.  Pierce is the most dynamic offensive player Boston has, and if his dribble-drives are taken away he becomes infinitely more difficult to guard.  More importantly, he has been the Celtics’ best perimeter defender in the playoffs and has learned how to be a great help man as well.  It will interesting to see how well he is moving in the early part of Game 2.  If he is fine, the Celtics need to play with the same intensity, focus, and solid execution and they will have a good chance of heading to the West Coast with a 2-0 advantage. 

For Los Angeles to win Game 2, it need better performances all around.  The number one priorities should probably be energy and focus.  The Lakers looked lethargic at times and the bench did not provide the same type of boost they have normally given the team.  The focus needs to come on missed shots as Boston grabbed 10 offensive rebounds, were plus 13 rebounding advantage, and were quicker to several loose balls.  Odom and Gasol in particular must become more aggressive down low on both ends of the floor.  Each team has advantages inside of its offensive end of the floor due to some interesting match-ups between the four starting big men.  The battle in the paint will be a key area to watch in Game 2.  Even with the win, Boston is still just a slight favorite winning 54 percent of AccuScore simulations by just under two points.  This series is shaping up to be the classic everyone has been hoping for.

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PP34 said:

The probabilities now look like this: Lakers in 4 is now 0% Celtics in 4 is now 100% no but honestly this is going to be a great series and my knee is fine so don't worry about it

June 08, 2008

jonlee said:

Boston is still favored in the series by only 6%. That is a very small margin considering there are potentially 6 more games to play. The numbers just mean that the Celtics improved their probability of winning the title by 10% from Game 1 to Game 2.

June 08, 2008

ocean99 said:

How can Boston be favored by so much. I consider this game to be a pick'em especially with Phil Jackson coaching. This game will go back and forth. Don't be so quick to give Boston the win

June 08, 2008

Amazing_Happens said:

Could you publish the corresponding probabilities for each possible outcome of the series after each game? For example: Lakers in 4 is now 0% Boston in 4 is now x.x% Lakers in 5 is now x.x% Lakers in 6 is now x.x% Boston in 6 is now x.x% Lakers in 7 is now x.x% Boston in 7 is now x.x% Thanks!

June 07, 2008

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