Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

With all due respect to ESPN, AccuScore’s #1 client and the most powerful brand in sports, you guys had a playoff forecast for the NBA a few weeks back that was the result of 5,000 simulations!

Now the problem with that analysis is that it did not factor in at all for future events, namely key players returning from injury, and it based future “simulated wins” based on what has happened during the 2007-2008 season to date. So you had teams like Washington and Atlanta making the playoffs over 94% of the time and other teams like New Jersey having just 0.4% chance.

Now I don’t necessarily have a problem with their projected rankings or playoff seeding, but as a specialist in creating simulations that actually have practical value, I cannot sit back and watch my favorite website, ESPN.com, promote such a statistically poor projection.

You may be wondering why AccuScore is any better than other companies’ simulated forecasts. While I do not encourage gambling, AccuScore provides betting predictions against the spread based on simulations. As of 12/28 AccuScore has a betting record of 216-169 on point spreads! This is 56.1% accuracy on all games. This means if you started with $1500 and bet $100 on every point spread your $1500 would be worth over $4,200 after 9 weeks. The team that won over 50% in AccuScore’s simulations has won 65.7% of the time. The billion dollar backed Vegas Odds-Makers have picked the favorite just 64.5% of the time.

Non-gamblers may not realize the significance of these numbers. They basically mean that AccuScore is the only sports simulation service that actually can make big money off of what its mouth says.

So enough self-promotion, let’s get to the point of this article. We’ve simulated the rest of the NBA Season factoring in:

1. Current Records
2. Known Player Injuries (ex. Elton Brand, Gilbert Arenas returning in mid-Feb)
3. Catastrophic Injury Probability (every player in the league has a chance of suffering a serious injury). We include a chance of serious injury to all players in each simulation.
4. 10,000 Full-Season simulations with each game simulated one play at a time, 10,000 times.

Here’s how things are looking for the rest of the season.

BOSTON CELTICS: The team is a virtual lock to win the Atlantic (98.2%) and unless they suffer multiple serious injuries to the Big 3 they make the playoffs.

DETROIT PISTONS: The Pistons have no apparent weaknesses and greater depth than Boston. They beat the Celtics in Boston and are also a virtual lock to win the Central, make the Playoffs, and likely meet Boston in the Conference Finals.

ORLANDO MAGIC: Most teams reach the 50 win mark by winning around 30 at home and half their road games. The Magic are reversing this pattern. Expect the road wins to start declining and the home wins to start picking up, but the overall position, #3 in the East, to stay the same all season.

TORONTO RAPTORS: Toronto is currently 6th in the East based on record, but they are 4th in average margin of victory. AccuScore simulations have the Raptors playing up to their margin of victory rank and finishing with home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS: The Wizards have managed to win over half their games since Gilbert Arenas went out. They are actually playing average defense which is a huge improvement from the past few seasons of terrible defense. Arenas should be back in February and will join a more confident group of teammates and Washington has a solid 61.2% chance of making the playoffs.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS: The Cavs are just 8th right now, but they recently beat Dallas on the road and if the team starts playing defense like they did all of last season they should move up to the Top 6th in the Conference with a real shot at catching the Raptors if Toronto has any key injuries besides the TJ Ford injury.

ATLANTA HAWKS: The Hawks are #4 in the East but they’ve benefited from a Home heavy schedule. As of 12/28 they played 16 home games and 11 road games. While they are slipping down to 7th for the season, their playoff probability is not significantly lower than Washington or Cleveland’s.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS: The Sixers are just 10th in the East right now, but they are finishing a solid 8th for the season forecast. Philly started just 3-8 but have played over .500 since then and are only looking better each week. It will be interesting to see if they do look to trade Andre Miller while his value is at its highest, or if they will stick with the roster and make a playoff push.

INDIANA PACERS: AccuScore has Indiana slipping out of the playoffs in over 60% of simulations. The Pacers have had a number of impressive wins and equally disastrous losses. One of the primary reasons for their shaky playoff probability is the relatively high rate of injury for key players on the team.

NEW JERSEY NETS: The Nets are currently 9th, but things are not looking good. They have played 5 more home games than road games and still are well below .500. They have an injury prone roster and based on this forecast, the Nets may want to go ahead and trade Jason Kidd and start rebuilding.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS: The Bucks forecasted ranking is the same as their current ranking. They have good perimeter shooters, solid rebounding and depth, but they are amongst the worst teams in the league in turnover margin and defensive field goal percentage. There is no reason to believe these weaknesses are going to get better as the season goes on so the Bucks are heading back to the lottery.

CHICAGO BULLS: While I’m the first to promote how great AccuScore’s simulations are, for every 2 “good” forecasts you are going to have 1 dud. The Bulls were our pre-season pick to win the East and now they are recovering to make the playoffs in just 27% of simulations. The good thing for Chicago is to get much better they simply need their three leaders, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich, to start shooting like they have for most of their career. They are still solid on defense, rebounding and turnover margin.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS: They are making strides winning over half their home games, but a terrible road record ultimately keeps the Bobcats out of the playoff picture for another season. They have some good individual defenders and young, athletic players, but they don’t play good team defense.

MIAMI HEAT: The team stunk without Dwayne Wade and they stink with Dwayne Wade. Wade is still injured and it’s hard to imagine a player getting healthier while logging 40 minutes a night. Shaq is playing horribly and is due for his 2 month injury any day now. Most importantly, they do not intimidate opponents anymore.

NEW YORK KNICKS: No reason to go through this mess again. Who’s the #1 Pick in next year’s draft?

The Western Conference is dominated by Point Guards. The Lakers and Mavericks are the only teams in the Top 8 without a PG who expects to be an All-NBA selection. It’s not like Derek Fisher for the Lakers and Jason Terry / Devin Harris for the Mavs are slouches at PG.

PHOENIX SUNS: The Suns still look built for regular season success more than post-season success. Lack of rebounding and allowing opponents to shoot too high a percentage will cost them against the other Western Powers, which may now include the Lakers, a team that beat them twice.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS: San Antonio is actually only winning the Southwest Division 44% of the time, but they a virtual lock for the playoffs assuming Duncan, Ginobili and Parker don’t suffer any more serious injuries.

DALLAS MAVERICKS: The team certainly lacks the spark they had last year, but the talent is still there. They just have to get back to playing good defense and Dirk needs to re-discover his perimeter touch. Both are likely.

UTAH JAZZ: The Jazz are barely over .500, but they are forecasted to go from 9th currently to 4th by the end of the season. They have played 6 more road games than home games and once that number evens out they’ll be in fine shape.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS: There really are no glaring weaknesses on the Lakers. They turn the ball over more than you’d like, but that is to be expected since they do have some young guards and they play at a faster pace. While it’s unlikely a Celtics-Lakers Final may not be out of the question in the next few seasons.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS: The Hornets are in a 3 way tied for the 3rd best record in the West with the Lakers and Dallas. Right now they are forecasted to slip out of the Top 4 Seeds, but they are still making the playoffs for the first time since moving to New Orleans in a very strong 86% of simulations. Chris Paul is one of 7 superstar PGs who are projected to lead their team to the Western Conference Playoffs.

DENVER NUGGETS: The Nuggets season forecast rank is slightly lower than their current rank because so far this year they’ve played 5 more home games than road games. The real competition is with Utah for the Northwest Division and home court advantage in the first round. They play their first game on Jan 17.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: The Warriors are the one team that are expected to play better the rest of the year, but still have a projected rank lower than their current rank. They have played more road games than home games so far, but with Utah projected to pick up their game, the Warriors’ projected ranking is just 8th, like last season.

HOUSTON ROCKETS: The less rigid offensive style brought in by Rick Adelman has not helped the Rockets. Tracy McGrady is destined to struggle with injuries and perennially be in and out of the lineup. Yao may dominate in the post, but the Rockets’ guards are way overmatched by the dominating PGs in the West. Without a great PG, the offense needs McGrady to be the primary ball-handler which hurts the rest of his game.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS: Despite their massive winning streak and current #8 rank, they are not expected to maintain this level all season. There are simply too many good teams out West with more experience and consistent interior play. I cannot wait to see them with Greg Oden next year.

SACRAMENTO KINGS: On average, Mike Bibby improves the Kings’ chances of winning by 5 percentage points per game. That translates to 4 more wins per season. With Bibby and Kevin Martin coming back in January the Kings should have a decent second half of the season, but they are still playoff bound in just 10% of simulations.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS: Elton Brand should be back in February and Shaun Livingston may be back this year, but by then the Clippers are expected to be so far back that there is just a 2% chance of the team making the playoffs.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES: Mike Fratello’s defensive style and plodding offense may have irritated players and fans but it worked. Ever since the team started playing up tempo basketball they have been terrible. They have to figure out if Rudy Gay is destined to be a great scorer on a bad team or is he capable of being a good player on a good team.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: I wish I could have Kevin McHale’s job security. Randy Foye is coming back in mid-January, but if Dwayne Wade couldn’t make the Heat any better, what chance does Foye have of making significant impact on the Wolves? The only thing the franchise can hope for is the team plays hard all season long.

So this is the picture as of 12/28 (close enough to the New Year). We’ll look to update regularly, but not frequently. Running 10,000 season simulations for hundreds of games one play at a time takes a really long time.

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