NBA Western Conference Finals Preview

Jonathan Lee AccuScore Analyst
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The Spurs just keep on winning. They might not be stylish, pretty, or popular, but San Antonio just gets it done behind the big man in the middle, Tim Duncan. The Lakers on the other hand are the glamour team of the NBA. They are young, and play an appealing brand of basketball led by Kobe Bryant. Los Angeles wants another ring, but they will have to go through the champions to get it. Who will survive the rugged West? Let’s break it down.

How much will home court matter?

Home teams went 22-3 in the second round of the playoffs…These two teams split the season series with each winning twice on its home floor. Each team was shorthanded once, and lost that game. The two have played only once after Los Angeles acquired Pau Gasol, and the Lakers won that game late in the regular season. The Lakers are the younger team, and needs homecourt advantage more than the more battle-tested Spurs. Both teams look up the challenge and pressure of playing in the conference finals, but the Lakers bench is youthful, and is more apt to be affected by the emotional swings provided by a home crowd. The Spurs proved against the Hornets though that they can overcome homecourt and win on the road no matter the situation. So the answer really is homecourt will matter, but only to a certain extent because of the teams involved. Either team is fully capable of winning on the road.

Which bench will be more effective?

It depends on which style you prefer… The Spurs have a smart, veteran laden group led by Michael Finley and Kurt Thomas (Manu Ginobili is a starter anyway you slice it, not matter what happens in the opening minutes of games). The Lakers have youth on their bench, and utilize Luke Walton, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, and Ronny Turiaf to run and change the tempo of games. I give the edge to the Lakers because of the superior depth and versatility they provide. Brent Barry and Damon Stoudamire have provided very little for San Antonio. Ime Udoka is useful as a shooter and defensive player, but Los Angeles may receive a boost in the form of Trevor Ariza sometime this series as well.

How do the Lakers defend Tim Duncan?

It will have to be a team effort… because Gasol simply isn’t tough enough on defense to guard Duncan consistently by himself. For as good as Gasol is offensively, he is equally soft defensively. That will pose a problem in the post against the best power forward of all-time. Turiaf will provide a more active and physical presence inside, and expect to see more of D.J. Mbenga this series as well. What Gasol must do is take it to Duncan on the offensive end to match him point for point, and try and draw some fouls on him early. Everything the Spurs do plays off of Duncan in the post. Attacking him offensively would be the best way to neutralize him in this series. In all reality, the Lakers probably can't do much to stop Duncan so it will be interesting to see how agressive he is offensively, and if L.A. can go enough other things to overcome this disadvantage.

Who guards Kobe Bryant?

Bruce Bowen is the obvious answer… but Bryant has had plenty of success against him in the past. Of course, Bryant has success against everyone. Still, the sole objective for Bowen (and probably Ime Udoka as well) will be to shadow and bother Bryant, and make him work for his points. Bowen actually outscored Bryant back on November 13 23 to 18, but that was an entirely different Laker team, one without Gasol and one that was still recovering from an off-season of turmoil. Bryant averaged 26.3 points against the Spurs in the other 3 games winning twice. Udoka is bigger than Bowen, and will give Bryant a different look. Greg Poppovich was not able to stop Chris Paul in the last series and instead chose to shut down his supporting cast. I expect San Antonio to make a similar adjustment and leave Bowen on Bryant without a lot of extra help.

Will the Lakers be able to keep Tony Parker out of the lane?

The short answer is no… nobody has been able to do that against Parker. He is too quick and crafty with the ball, and is one of the best finishers in the NBA consistently ranking among the leaders in points in the paint despite being a point guard. The Lakers will surely rotate defenders on Parker, but will mainly utilize Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, and Sasha Vujacic to shadow him. Fisher is very smart and physical, and is probably the best match-up the Lakers have on the roster. He is terrific as a team defender, and his importance can not be measured only by how he handles Parker one-on-one. Farmar will need to earn his minutes in this series on the defensive end pressuring Parker, and trying to take away either the dribble drive or the jumper.

It is pick your poison at this point with Parker, and would probably be a better idea to try and force him to shoot three-pointers rather than shorter jumpers or allowing him to get in the lane. Of course stopping the jet-quick guard is much easier said than done. The Hornets failed in this regard often giving him a mid-range jumper off of pick-and-rolls. The Lakers will need to go over the top of screens when they are set inside the arc, and hope that Gasol, Odom, and Turiaf will be able to defend the basket. One interesting subplot to watch will be if the Lakers activate Ariza. He has been fully cleared medically, and has been practicing with the team preparing for possible action. He would be an intriguing option to use against Parker or Ginobili because of his size and terrific athletic ability.

So who wins the series?

AccuScore simulations have the Lakers winning the series 51 percent of the time… but with numbers this close it obviously could go either way. Champions die hard, and the Spurs have already proven that this year easily dispatching what was thought to be a contender in the Suns, and winning game seven on the road against the Hornets. The big question I have is will the Spurs be able to score enough point to keep up with the high-powered Lakers. Duncan is no longer gets 25 points per game routinely, and is down in the 16-18 range. Ginobili and Parker will have to carry much of the scoring load. Kobe will be out to prove his MVP status, and cement his legacy with a post-Shaq championship. The two best coaches in the NBA also square off in Phil Jackson and Greg Poppovich. Fans wanted selfishly to see New Orleans in the conference finals, but I find this match-up much more interesting. Hall of Fame coaches man the sidelines, and Hall of Fame players going head to head for the big prize. I like the Lakers in seven in what should be a very close and very entertaining series.

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Who the hell is "Who the hell is j.lee" said:

It was Lakers in 5.

June 02, 2008

WHO IS THE HELL IS J. LEE said:

WHY THE HELL ARE PEOPLE WHO NEVER PLAYED ANY KIND OF SPORTS GETS TO WRITE ABOUT THEM.DAMN STATS FIENDS,THAT ALL YALL DO IS LOOK AT THE STAT AND NOW YOU HAVE ALL THE ANSWERS.I SHIT LOOK AT THIS KID WHO WROTE THIS.KNOW WAY IN HELL HE PLAYED ANY BASKETBALL,MAYBE ICE SKATING.FIRE JON LEE

May 25, 2008