NBA Preview: Southwest Division

Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

There were four 50-win teams in the Southwest Division last year, and AccuScore projects all four of them to do the same this season. With the addition of Ron Artest, Houston is has the highest percentage to win the division at 43.2% followed by New Orleans at 28.5%. Below you'll find complete season forecasts for each team in the division:

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
New Orleans Hornets			57	25	104.3	95.4	28.5%		97.8%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	39%	22%	19%	14%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
The Hornets are expected to repeat their 2007-2008 success as long as Chris Paul is healthy. Without Paul this team would plummet to 35-39 wins or maybe even below that. The addition of James Posey may not be having a huge impact in the regular season, but expect to see the benefits in the post-season. Peja Stojakovic has a well-deserved reputation for struggling in the playoffs once he goes up against the top defenses in the league. James Posey is one of the most clutch three point shooters in the post-season. Peja's 2.4 three pointers per game will help the Hornets win a lot of regular season games, but when his three point percentage drops from 44 percent in the regular season down to 24 percent against top defenses, the Hornets will have Posey ready to nail those three's after Chris Paul penetrates and dishes. Posey will also be able to play infinitely better defense than Peja.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Chris Paul	22.4	12.7	4.1	8.0	47.5%	5.4	83.5%	1.0	0.1	2.1
David West	19.1	2.0	8.4	7.8	45.7%	3.3	84.3%	0.1	1.2	0.9
Peja Stojakovic	14.3	1.4	4.4	4.8	43.2%	2.3	91.2%	2.4	0.2	0.8
Tyson Chandler	9.9	0.9	11.2	4.1	60.2%	1.7	58.2%	0.0	1.5	0.6
Jannero Pargo	7.4	2.2	1.8	2.8	39.5%	1.0	84.1%	0.8	0.1	0.8
Morris Peterson	7.1	0.8	2.8	2.5	42.5%	1.0	74.5%	1.2	0.1	0.7
James Posey	6.9	1.4	4.4	2.2	41.5%	1.2	82.7%	1.3	0.3	1.0
Julian Wright	5.7	1.0	2.9	2.3	51.1%	0.8	65.7%	0.2	0.3	0.8
Bonzi Wells	3.3	0.3	0.7	1.4	45.1%	0.4	62.1%	0.1	0.1	0.2
Rasual Butler	3.1	0.3	0.4	1.2	39.4%	0.2	69.9%	0.5	0.1	0.1
Mike James	3.0	0.7	0.2	1.1	41.2%	0.4	82.1%	0.3	0.0	0.1
Melvin Ely	2.2	0.2	0.5	0.9	44.7%	0.4	61.9%	0.0	0.1	0.0
Hilton Armstrong	2.1	0.2	0.5	0.9	50.3%	0.4	59.1%	0.0	0.1	0.1
NO Benchwarmers	2.3	0.2	0.6	1.0	44.9%	0.2	66.9%	0.1	0.1	0.1

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
San Antonio Spurs			51	31	97.7	92.1	10.1%		90.0%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	17%	22%	21%	18%	15%	6%	1%	0%	0%	0%
If San Antonio continues their pattern of winning every other year then this is there year. However, AccuScore does not expect the Spurs to get back to the Finals. When healthy, Manu Ginobili is one of the 10 best players in the league, but unlike other superstars, when he is injured he often looks like one of the worst 50 players in the league. He is already set to miss the first month of the season and it does not seem that he will ever play injury free this year. The Spurs did not make any high profile moves in the off-season. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker will get the Spurs back to the playoffs (90 percent chance) and 50+ wins in the competitive Southwest, but AccuScore does forecast a significant step back for the Spurs. They won 56 games last year, but are only winning 55+ in 39 percent of '08-09 simulations.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Tim Duncan	20.9	3.2	12.2	8.2	49.1%	4.4	67.5%	0.0	2.1	0.8
Tony Parker	19.8	6.7	3.6	7.8	50.6%	3.9	73.8%	0.3	0.1	1.0
Manu Ginobili	18.2	4.5	4.9	5.6	44.2%	5.1	85.7%	1.9	0.4	1.4
Michael Finley	8.9	1.6	2.6	3.2	40.9%	1.1	87.0%	1.4	0.1	0.4
Roger Mason	7.1	1.4	1.2	2.6	42.3%	0.7	86.1%	1.2	0.1	0.4
Bruce Bowen	6.4	1.5	3.0	2.3	40.3%	0.6	64.2%	1.2	0.3	0.8
Ime Udoka	5.9	1.0	2.5	2.2	44.7%	0.6	74.3%	0.8	0.2	0.6
Kurt Thomas	5.0	0.7	4.8	2.2	47.7%	0.7	72.7%	0.0	0.4	0.5
Fabricio Oberto	5.0	1.1	5.4	2.2	58.0%	0.5	61.9%	0.0	0.3	0.4
Jacque Vaughn	3.3	1.7	0.8	1.3	42.0%	0.6	75.2%	0.0	0.0	0.3
OTHER	0.8	0.1	0.6	0.3	40.4%	0.1	71.2%	0.1	0.1	0.1

HOUSTON ROCKETS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Houston Rockets			59	23	102.0	92.0	43.2%		99.1%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	51%	21%	17%	9%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
The addition of Ron Artest makes Houston the favorite to take the Southwest Division. Their excellent defense is forecasted to hold teams to just 92 points per game. Ron Artest is capable of averaging over 20, but on the Rockets he is expected to take a backseat to Yao and McGrady. Artest helps the offense with a valuable 3.5 assists per game (forecasted) which is a high figure for a small forward. Injuries are always a concern for the Rockets, but with Artest they have quality depth at every position except Center. Another serious Yao Ming injury would likely cost the Rockets a shot at the Championship. By relying more on 2nd year PF Luis Scola to provide some offense the Rockets could cut down Yao's minutes in the regular season and hopefully keep him fresh and healthy all season long.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Yao Ming	21.5	1.6	9.2	8.1	51.5%	5.4	85.6%	0.0	1.9	0.5
Tracy McGrady	21.1	6.3	5.0	7.7	42.3%	4.4	70.1%	1.3	0.5	1.3
Ron Artest	14.7	3.4	5.8	5.2	44.9%	3.4	72.8%	1.0	0.7	1.9
Rafer Alston	10.5	4.5	3.2	3.8	38.6%	1.2	72.3%	1.7	0.2	1.5
Luis Scola	8.8	1.1	5.8	3.5	49.0%	1.8	67.3%	0.0	0.2	0.8
Shane Battier	8.1	1.7	4.2	2.8	43.4%	1.0	75.9%	1.5	1.0	1.1
Carl Landry	6.7	0.4	4.4	2.6	57.6%	1.5	67.3%	0.0	0.2	0.6
Chuck Hayes	3.4	0.7	5.3	1.6	53.5%	0.3	56.4%	0.0	0.4	1.0
Luther Head	2.7	0.3	0.3	1.0	45.3%	0.2	79.5%	0.5	0.0	0.1
OTHER	3.3	0.4	0.6	1.3	45.0%	0.3	77.6%	0.5	0.1	0.1

DALLAS MAVERICKS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Dallas Mavericks			53	29	104.3	97.0	16.8%		94.4%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	25%	22%	21%	18%	11%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%
While Jason Kidd is no longer considered a Top 5 PG, he is certainly still a Top 8 PG. It was hard to insert Kidd into the lineup in the middle of the season when Coach Avery Johnson was not in favor of the trade. The chemistry between Kidd, Nowitzki, and Josh Howard will be better this season now that Kidd is firmly in place. Dallas won 51 games despite all their issues last season. Re-signing DeSagana Diop will really help Dallas defendTim Duncan and Yao Ming in the post, while providing better defensive rebounding against the likes of Tyson Chandler. Last season, Brandon Bass often was the team's backup Center and he is just not big enough to handle that role. In 2007-2008 Dallas struggled to deal with high expectations and their disastrous loss to Golden State in the '07 playoffs. With last year's pressure removed, the Mavs are forecasted for a better 2008-2009.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Dirk Nowitzki	24.3	2.9	8.1	8.8	46.4%	5.6	88.5%	1.1	0.9	0.8
Josh Howard	20.4	2.0	6.5	7.9	43.8%	3.5	80.8%	1.2	0.6	1.1
Jason Terry	14.6	4.4	2.4	5.4	47.3%	2.3	83.3%	1.6	0.2	1.1
Jason Kidd	11.3	9.0	7.2	4.0	40.1%	1.7	77.7%	1.5	0.3	1.5
Brandon Bass	8.1	0.7	4.2	2.9	47.3%	2.2	83.9%	0.0	0.6	0.4
Jerry Stackhouse	6.5	1.4	1.2	2.3	41.0%	1.3	86.7%	0.6	0.1	0.4
Erick Dampier	6.0	0.6	6.7	2.4	60.3%	1.2	59.9%	0.0	1.3	0.4
Eddie Jones	3.8	0.8	1.6	1.4	41.0%	0.4	78.8%	0.6	0.1	0.5
Jose Juan Barea	3.1	0.7	0.6	1.2	42.5%	0.4	73.3%	0.3	0.0	0.2
DeSagana Diop	2.9	0.4	5.0	1.2	49.3%	0.5	54.2%	0.0	1.3	0.5
Devean George	2.9	0.3	1.4	1.1	38.1%	0.3	72.8%	0.4	0.2	0.4
OTHER	0.7	0.1	0.3	0.3	37.8%	0.1	72.5%	0.1	0.0	0.1

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Memphis Grizzlies			18	64	99.1	111.9	0.0%		0.1%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%	7%	16%	75%	59%
Even with Juan Carlos Navvaro bailing for his old Spanish team the Grizzlies still have a glut at PG with Mike Conley JR, Kyle Lowry, and Javaris Crittendon. Rookie OJ Mayo also plays the point quite a bit. The Grizzlies lack low post scoring with Darko Milicic firmly established as a flop and rookie Marc Gasol more likely to get points off offensive rebounds rather than low post scoring like his brother. Assuming Gasol has normal foul trouble problems typical of NBA rookies this team is going to get demolished by good power forwards and centers. The Grizzlies are not only thin up front, but they also lack consistent perimeter shooting. They have good wing players who can take the ball to the basket and score in transition, but they can not run your basic inside-outside offense. The Grizzlies are the only team not winning at least 20 games per simulation.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Rudy Gay	21.0	2.0	6.4	8.2	45.1%	3.0	76.4%	1.6	1.2	1.4
O.J. Mayo	12.4	4.1	4.4	4.5	40.0%	2.4	73.1%	1.1	0.6	1.5
Hakim Warrick	12.4	0.9	5.3	4.6	51.6%	3.2	73.9%	0.1	0.5	0.6
Mike Conley Jr.	11.8	5.5	3.4	4.5	43.0%	2.1	73.1%	0.7	0.0	1.3
Kyle Lowry	10.8	4.1	3.6	3.5	43.1%	3.3	70.5%	0.5	0.3	1.5
Marc Gasol	9.0	1.2	8.0	3.6	48.1%	1.8	79.2%	0.0	1.8	0.6
Darko Milicic	7.5	1.0	6.2	3.1	45.2%	1.3	57.9%	0.0	1.9	0.7
Javaris Crittenton	6.2	1.1	2.4	2.2	42.0%	1.6	68.3%	0.2	0.0	0.5
Antoine Walker	3.6	0.4	0.6	1.4	39.9%	0.2	51.1%	0.5	0.0	0.1
OTHER	3.1	1.0	0.4	1.2	42.4%	0.4	74.4%	0.3	0.1	0.3