NBA Preview: Northwest Division

Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

The Northwest Division is top heavy with favorites Utah and Portland each forecasted to win 50 or more games. Utah returns a proven lineup that were two games away from the Western Conference Finals last year, while Portland's abundance of youthful talent only improves this year with rookie Greg Oden returning to the court after missing a year. Below you'll find complete season forecasts for each team in the division:

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Portland Trail Blazers			50	32	98.0	93.5	43.2%		85.0%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	12%	19%	21%	20%	17%	9%	2%	0%	0%	0%
The Trailblazers are loaded with talent after adding Greg Oden, first round pick Jerryd Bayless and Spaniard Rudy Fernandez to a team that won 41 games last year. The Trailblazers are forecasted for a 50 win season and have an 85 percent chance of making the playoffs. While Portland lacks experience, as LeBron in leading Cleveland to the Finals in '07 and Chris Paul in New Orleans last year showed you do not have to have a wealth of experience to make your team an elite squad. Because this is a young team in a competitive conference the range of possible win totals is pretty wide for Portland as compared to other teams. Their chance of winning 60+ games, 12%, is virtually the same chance they have of winning 39 or fewer wins (11%).
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Brandon Roy	18.5	6.0	4.7	6.7	44.6%	4.2	78.4%	0.9	0.2	1.1
LaMarcus Aldridge	15.9	1.7	7.4	6.3	46.7%	3.3	75.4%	0.0	1.4	0.7
Greg Oden	11.4	1.1	10.1	4.7	60.5%	1.9	60.9%	0.0	2.2	0.5
Martell Webster	10.0	1.2	3.8	3.3	40.6%	1.8	73.2%	1.6	0.3	0.6
Rudy Fernandez	9.7	2.3	3.1	3.5	39.9%	1.9	73.1%	0.9	0.4	1.1
Jerryd Bayless	9.4	4.0	2.7	3.5	41.7%	1.6	73.0%	0.8	0.2	1.4
Steve Blake	8.1	5.2	2.4	3.1	41.5%	0.6	73.2%	1.3	0.1	0.8
Travis Outlaw	7.1	0.6	2.2	2.8	43.9%	1.4	75.9%	0.2	0.5	0.6
Channing Frye	4.2	0.4	2.4	1.8	46.6%	0.6	78.8%	0.0	0.2	0.3
Joel Przybilla	2.7	0.2	4.0	1.2	56.5%	0.4	61.0%	0.0	0.8	0.2
OTHER	1.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	39.3%	0.2	72.0%	0.1	0.1	0.1

UTAH JAZZ

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Utah Jazz			51	31	108.5	102.3	52.1%		90.1%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	15%	21%	22%	21%	14%	6%	1%	0%	0%	0%
The Utah Jazz have a number of skilled offensive players and are forecasted for an impressive 108.5 points per game. However, Jerry Sloan will be disappointed if he sees the Jazz allow over 102 points per game as AccuScore current forecasts. You can outscore teams to win 50+ games, but you cannot expect to outscore teams and win an NBA Championship. While Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are one of the most productive offensive tandems in the league, they need to figure out if they can defend the likes of Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Tim Duncan, Pau Gasol and other top-notch competition. Utah is favored to repeat as Northwest division champs (52% chance), but they are getting a run for their money from Portland.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Carlos Boozer	21.5	2.6	11.3	9.3	50.2%	3.0	71.5%	0.0	0.4	1.1
Deron Williams	17.8	10.0	3.5	6.6	48.4%	3.5	78.4%	1.1	0.3	1.1
Mehmet Okur	14.6	2.2	8.2	4.9	43.4%	3.3	78.6%	1.4	0.6	0.7
Kyle Korver	10.9	1.5	2.8	3.7	43.0%	2.1	90.9%	1.5	0.4	0.7
Ronnie Brewer	10.8	1.7	2.9	4.1	52.1%	2.4	73.3%	0.1	0.3	1.4
Andrei Kirilenko	10.3	3.3	5.0	3.6	48.7%	2.7	75.4%	0.4	2.0	1.2
Matt Harpring	9.4	1.2	3.8	3.4	46.8%	2.5	74.1%	0.1	0.2	0.7
Paul Millsap	7.6	0.9	5.6	2.9	48.8%	1.8	66.9%	0.0	1.0	0.9
Ronnie Price	3.1	0.8	0.7	1.2	41.6%	0.4	68.8%	0.3	0.1	0.4
Jarron Collins	1.7	0.4	1.5	0.6	43.6%	0.4	65.0%	0.0	0.1	0.2
OTHER	1.1	0.2	1.0	0.5	42.5%	0.1	66.4%	0.0	0.1	0.2

DENVER NUGGETS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Denver Nuggets			35	47	110.0	113.4	3.1%		23.8%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	0%	0%	3%	12%	19%	22%	21%	17%	7%	1%
The Nuggets were a terrible defensive team when Marcus Camby, arguably the best defensive Center in the league, was with the team. With Camby gone the Nuggets are left with a huge defensive hole in Center and only the likes of injury plagued Nene Hilario, inconsistent Steven Hunter, and the unsuspended Chris Anderson in the middle. AI and Carmelo will get their stats, but it is hard to imagine the Nuggets being able to squeeze into the playoffs this season. The Nuggets are averaging 110 points per simulation, but are allowing an astounding 113 points. If you are a fantasy owner of a point guard or small forward going against Denver remember to start them. AI and Carmelo excel at scoring 30+ on 50 percent shooting while allowing their defensive assignments to virtually match those numbers.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Allen Iverson	25.5	7.9	3.3	8.1	41.8%	8.3	80.4%	1.0	0.2	1.8
Carmelo Anthony	24.4	2.9	7.2	9.3	44.1%	5.2	79.2%	0.7	0.4	1.2
J.R. Smith	10.9	1.6	2.1	3.7	44.3%	1.8	76.4%	1.8	0.1	0.9
Kenyon Martin	10.2	1.3	7.0	4.3	49.8%	1.6	57.1%	0.0	1.2	1.2
Linas Kleiza	10.0	1.1	4.7	3.4	44.2%	2.1	79.1%	1.2	0.2	0.6
Nene Hilario	8.8	1.0	7.1	3.3	51.8%	2.2	67.1%	0.0	1.0	1.0
Anthony Carter	6.7	4.7	3.1	2.7	45.1%	0.7	73.8%	0.5	0.4	1.6
Chucky Atkins	3.9	1.1	0.7	1.3	41.7%	0.7	79.8%	0.6	0.0	0.3
C.Andersen	2.9	0.3	4.0	1.1	48.7%	0.7	59.9%	0.0	1.1	0.1
Steven Hunter	2.7	0.1	1.7	1.2	58.3%	0.3	47.8%	0.0	0.4	0.1
Renaldo Balkman	2.1	0.2	2.0	0.9	51.1%	0.2	48.5%	0.0	0.3	0.5
Juwan Howard	2.1	0.3	1.4	0.9	45.9%	0.3	80.7%	0.0	0.0	0.1
OTHER	0.7	0.1	0.4	0.3	46.7%	0.1	69.9%	0.0	0.0	0.1

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Minnesota Timberwolves			30	52	100.9	106.2	0.8%		10.6%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	0%	0%	1%	4%	13%	18%	21%	21%	23%	9%
With no real post-season aspirations Minnesota is doing a good thing by drafting and aquiring quality offensive players who will at least provide entertainment and optimism to the fan base. Al Jefferson and Mike Miller are forecasted for excellent statistical seasons and rookie Kevin Love will get plenty of rookie of the year votes by providing close to a double-double. Love is not forecasted for more production because he is expected to struggle defensively and may find himself in foul trouble. The T-Wolves are averaging over 100 points per game, but allowing 106. This will be fine for now, but in a few season when the team expects to be more competitive they will need to address their glaring defensive weakness.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Al Jefferson	22.9	1.5	10.3	9.7	49.9%	3.4	70.5%	0.0	1.5	0.8
Mike Miller	16.6	4.2	5.3	5.9	47.9%	2.5	78.3%	2.3	0.2	0.6
Rashad McCants	12.9	2.3	2.2	4.8	44.6%	1.7	73.0%	1.6	0.3	0.9
Randy Foye	12.5	4.1	3.0	4.6	42.9%	2.2	85.1%	1.2	0.2	0.8
Kevin Love	11.0	1.5	8.8	4.3	48.4%	2.0	76.1%	0.4	0.9	0.7
Craig Smith	10.0	0.9	4.7	4.0	55.0%	2.0	65.1%	0.0	0.2	0.6
Sebastian Telfair	6.7	3.6	1.4	2.6	39.1%	1.1	77.3%	0.4	0.1	0.6
Corey Brewer	6.2	1.6	3.5	2.4	37.4%	1.2	81.3%	0.1	0.3	0.9
Calvin Booth	1.5	0.2	1.2	0.6	46.1%	0.2	66.8%	0.0	0.4	0.1
OTHER	1.0	0.2	0.9	0.4	42.3%	0.1	65.9%	0.0	0.2	0.1

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Oklahoma City			24	58	100.2	108.9	0.0%		1.5%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%	9%	18%	21%	50%	33%
Oklahoma City is still several high draft picks away from being competitive. Kevin Durant used to tear up Oklahoma and Oklahoma State back at Texas so the local city will love to see him on their side now. While Durant's offensive efficiency should be better based on how well he was playing at the end of last season, he still has to prove that he can either rebound like a Forward or, if he's going to play SG, can he defend the perimeter? AccuScore is conservatively forecasting just 9 points and 4 assists for rookie Russell Westbrook. However, the UCLA standout could easily end up supplanting another former UCLA PG, Earl Watson as the starter because Westbrook is the better defender and if the team is losing, you might as well give your future stars the playing time. A rabid fan base should help Oklahoma City play well at home and the team is forecasted for 4 more wins than last year.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Kevin Durant	23.7	2.5	4.0	8.9	43.6%	4.9	87.4%	0.9	0.9	1.1
Chris Wilcox	13.1	1.2	6.9	5.1	52.0%	2.9	66.3%	0.0	0.5	0.8
Jeff Green	10.2	1.6	4.3	3.8	41.9%	2.3	74.2%	0.3	0.6	0.7
Earl Watson	10.0	6.3	2.8	3.9	42.5%	1.4	74.6%	0.9	0.2	1.3
Joe Smith	9.5	0.9	5.4	3.6	46.0%	2.2	77.4%	0.0	0.6	0.6
Nick Collison	9.2	1.3	8.3	3.7	49.0%	1.7	74.7%	0.0	0.8	0.7
Russell Westbrook	8.5	3.9	3.1	3.1	39.2%	1.5	79.2%	0.7	0.2	1.6
Desmond Mason	6.1	0.9	2.4	2.4	45.9%	1.2	67.4%	0.0	0.2	0.5
Damien Wilkins	5.7	1.2	1.8	2.1	41.9%	1.0	81.4%	0.4	0.1	0.7
Johan Petro	3.9	0.3	2.6	1.7	46.5%	0.5	70.6%	0.0	0.3	0.4
OTHER	0.4	0.1	0.3	0.2	42.4%	0.1	67.1%	0.0	0.1	0.1

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LOLWTF said:

Are you guys nuts. Since when is Rashad going to outplay Randy Foye.

October 28, 2008

jbwik said:

Claude - I was wondering the same thing. Just think how much better the Wolves will be with another 12-14 points and 6 boards a night! Since Accuscore doesn't assign minutes played, I assume we can just add Gomes's numbers in. SWEET! Oh, wait, maybe he'll steal some of Craig Smith's points. Othewise, the stats project pretty well except for Foye being a little light.

October 28, 2008

lol said:

randy foye only averaging 12 points and 4 assists?

October 28, 2008

ClaudeGeorge said:

What happened to Ryan Gomes? Surely he is not part of the other category.

October 27, 2008

Adam T. said:

7 points and 2.2 rebounds. Hilarious. Especially with Webster out 8-10 weeks. Outlaw had better numbers than Webster last year when both were healthy.

Outlaw will put up 12-14 points with 6 boards a game. Easy.

October 25, 2008

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