NBA Preview: Central Division

Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

The Detroit Pistons are once again forecasted to win the Central Division with a projected record of 50-32. The Cleveland Cavs are at 83% to make the playoffs behind Lebron James who is forecasted to average 29.6 ppg. AccuScore has complete forecasts for all Central Division teams below:

DETROIT PISTONS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Detroit Pistons			50	32	95.1	90.5	53.6%		91.3%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	15%	19%	20%	20%	16%	8%	2%	0%	0%	0%
The Pistons play with the swagger of a 4 time Champion. Unfortunately, this core of Pistons has one Championship and the swagger results in playing below their potential. The leading scorer for the Pistons in simulations is Richard Hamilton at just 17.6 points per game. While balanced scoring can be a good thing, the Pistons need a clear dominant scorer to lift them when perimeter shots are not falling. Chauncey Billups has a well-earned reputation for hitting big shots, but he has not lived up to his reputation the past few seasons. At this point in his career Rasheed Wallace's forecasted 13 points, 7 rebounds and 1.5 three pointers per game are not likely to change. However, Wallace should be a 22 point, 11 rebound per game dominant low post player who shoots 55 percent from the field. If he embraced the low post part of his game the Pistons would have their dominant scorer and would have a legit shot at winning a championship.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Richard Hamilton	17.6	4.2	3.8	6.5	45.2%	3.9	86.2%	0.6	0.2	0.9
Chauncey Billups	14.8	5.8	2.9	4.4	43.6%	4.6	89.1%	1.5	0.2	1.0
Tayshaun Prince	13.6	3.6	5.4	5.2	44.5%	2.5	77.5%	0.8	0.5	0.7
Rasheed Wallace	12.6	2.2	7.3	4.7	42.0%	1.9	76.9%	1.4	1.6	1.1
Rodney Stuckey	10.9	3.9	3.1	3.9	43.8%	3.0	83.4%	0.1	0.1	1.1
Antonio McDyess	9.0	1.3	8.4	3.8	48.6%	1.4	66.4%	0.0	0.8	0.8
Jason Maxiell	7.3	0.5	4.9	2.8	52.2%	1.7	58.6%	0.0	1.2	0.5
Kwame Brown	5.3	0.9	3.8	2.2	54.5%	0.9	46.1%	0.0	0.5	0.5
Arron Afflalo	3.1	0.6	1.4	1.2	40.7%	0.6	77.5%	0.1	0.1	0.4
OTHER	0.9	0.1	0.7	0.4	43.2%	0.1	72.3%	0.1	0.1	0.1

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Cleveland Cavaliers			47	35	96.6	93.4	35.5%		83.4%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	6%	15%	20%	20%	19%	14%	5%	1%	0%	0%
The Cavaliers added Maurice Williams which was a good move. However, the Bucks did not exactly win a lot of games with Williams at PG and while the Cavs are forecasted for improvement, the improvement is just 2 games. However, two or three games can be the difference in getting home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Currently, the Cavs are forecasted for the 5th best record in the East, just 1 game back of Philly. While it is hard to believe that one or two games in December are that important in a 6 month, 82 game season, the Sixers and Cavs play a home and home pair of games on December 10 and 12 which could end up determining home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
LeBron James	29.6	8.2	7.2	10.0	46.1%	8.1	71.6%	1.4	0.9	1.6
Maurice Williams	15.3	6.0	4.0	5.9	46.5%	2.3	85.9%	1.1	0.1	1.2
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	12.4	1.5	8.0	4.8	47.7%	2.7	80.8%	0.0	1.4	0.6
Daniel Gibson	8.8	2.1	2.1	2.9	43.6%	1.3	79.5%	1.7	0.2	0.7
Sasha Pavlovic	8.1	1.6	2.5	3.0	40.2%	1.2	71.7%	0.8	0.2	0.8
Anderson Varejao	5.9	0.8	7.0	2.3	46.5%	1.3	59.1%	0.0	0.6	0.9
Ben Wallace	5.0	1.5	8.5	2.0	43.9%	1.0	42.6%	0.0	1.7	1.3
Wally Szczerbiak	4.9	0.5	1.1	1.9	43.7%	0.7	87.8%	0.5	0.1	0.2
Delonte West	3.8	0.9	1.1	1.5	42.1%	0.4	81.8%	0.4	0.2	0.5
J.J. Hickson	2.3	0.2	1.1	1.0	48.7%	0.3	64.6%	0.0	0.2	0.1
OTHER	1.2	0.1	0.6	0.5	46.6%	0.1	67.3%	0.0	0.1	0.1

CHICAGO BULLS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Chicago Bulls			29	53	103.5	107.5	1.0%		15.2%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	0%	0%	0%	3%	10%	17%	21%	22%	28%	13%
The Bulls collapsed when the team decided to tune out Scott Skiles and ignore his defense first strategy. The team has tremendous depth at every position, but the problem is they are too balanced with their starters not necessarily being much better than the player listed as 3rd on the depth chart. Does anyone really think that starting SG, Larry Hughes, is better than Ben Gordon or Thabo Sefolosha? Number 1 pick Derrick Rose is a great player, but one of his best traits was his willingness to prioritize his older teammates' concerns over their statistical production over his own. AccuScore is not projecting a great statistical season from Derrick Rose as he will have some rookie growing pains and likely defer to teammates in a crowded Bulls backcourt. The Bulls are forecasted to struggle because they are no longer a good defensive team and will not have the consistent PG leadership this season needed to run a Phoenix style offense that Vinny Del Negro will try to implement.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Luol Deng	16.0	2.5	6.4	6.3	47.6%	3.4	77.9%	0.1	0.6	1.2
Ben Gordon	15.4	2.9	2.7	5.2	42.8%	3.6	88.1%	1.5	0.1	0.8
Andres Nocioni	11.8	1.2	4.3	4.1	43.2%	2.3	81.2%	1.3	0.5	0.5
Drew Gooden	10.7	1.2	8.3	4.3	44.9%	2.1	74.3%	0.0	0.7	1.0
Kirk Hinrich	10.2	4.6	2.6	3.7	43.2%	1.7	82.1%	1.0	0.2	1.1
Derrick Rose	10.1	4.5	3.0	3.7	39.2%	1.7	72.8%	0.9	0.2	1.7
Larry Hughes	9.9	2.4	3.0	3.5	37.6%	2.1	73.6%	0.7	0.3	1.3
Joakim Noah	7.7	1.3	6.8	2.8	46.8%	2.1	68.9%	0.0	1.3	1.2
Tyrus Thomas	6.3	0.9	4.6	2.3	42.1%	1.7	68.1%	0.0	1.3	0.8
Thabo Sefolosha	5.7	1.6	3.3	2.3	41.5%	0.8	66.1%	0.4	0.4	0.9
OTHER	1.9	0.2	0.4	0.8	50.3%	0.2	59.4%	0.0	0.1	0.1

INDIANA PACERS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Indiana Pacers			40	42	105.8	106.1	12.4%		57.1%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	0%	3%	11%	19%	20%	21%	16%	8%	2%	0%
The Pacers will not get much national attention this season with no real stars on the team. However, they do have a number of solid role players that could surprise people if they become a defense first team. The problem is TJ Ford is a good offensive player but opposing point guards can take advantage of his lack of size and with Jermaine O'Neal gone the team does not have good shot blocking. Rookie Roy Hibbert will be too inexperienced to provide an intimidating interior defensive presence this season. Expect a number of surprising wins from this team when their perimeter shooters get hot on the same night. Then expect them to lose badly to sub-par teams when the shots are not falling.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Danny Granger	20.3	2.5	6.0	6.8	44.4%	4.6	83.4%	2.1	1.0	1.0
Mike Dunleavy Jr.	18.6	4.3	5.9	6.3	44.8%	4.3	81.3%	1.7	0.4	1.1
T.J. Ford	13.3	7.2	2.8	5.1	45.0%	2.8	83.4%	0.3	0.1	1.1
Troy Murphy	12.7	2.5	7.6	4.4	44.1%	2.8	76.8%	1.2	0.5	0.7
Jarrett Jack	9.0	3.4	2.1	3.1	43.9%	2.2	86.8%	0.7	0.0	0.8
Jeff Foster	6.6	1.5	8.9	2.6	51.2%	1.3	61.4%	0.0	0.4	0.7
Rasho Nesterovic	6.5	1.0	3.7	3.0	53.0%	0.5	70.5%	0.0	0.7	0.3
Shawne Williams	6.1	0.8	2.1	2.3	43.2%	0.9	70.7%	0.6	0.3	0.2
Brandon Rush	4.5	0.9	0.8	1.7	39.4%	0.8	73.6%	0.4	0.1	0.3
Roy Hibbert	2.2	0.5	2.2	1.7	47.3%	0.7	61.2%	0.0	0.4	0.1
Maceo Baston	2.6	0.2	1.3	1.0	63.4%	0.5	76.8%	0.0	0.3	0.2
OTHER	2.0	0.3	0.5	0.8	42.8%	0.2	69.4%	0.1	0.1	0.2

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Milwaukee Bucks			25	57	99.0	107.1	0.2%		6.4%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%	12%	19%	21%	44%	26%
The Bucks are forecasted for just 25 wins and a 6% chance of making the playoffs. Michael Redd and Richard Jefferson will score plenty of points, but like the NJ Nets with Vince Carter and Jefferson, you can have both your SG and SF score 20+ points and not have a winning team. With Mo Williams gone the Bucks are left with Luke Ridnour and Ramon Sessions to handle PG duties. Rookie Joe Alexander is not projected to get a lot of action in his rookie season. He has a wide range of skills, but he is perceived to be pretty raw and will likely not get much time with Jefferson firmly planted at SF and Charlie Villanueva at PF. Milwaukee won 26 games last year and are headed for virtually the same record this season.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Michael Redd	24.3	2.7	4.2	8.6	43.3%	5.0	82.8%	2.1	0.2	0.9
Richard Jefferson	21.0	2.8	4.5	7.4	44.8%	5.1	79.3%	1.1	0.2	0.9
Andrew Bogut	12.6	2.9	9.5	5.2	50.9%	2.1	58.8%	0.0	1.3	0.7
Charlie Villanueva	11.3	1.2	6.0	4.3	43.9%	1.9	78.9%	0.7	0.4	0.5
Ramon Sessions	8.7	8.0	4.5	3.3	43.3%	1.9	79.1%	0.2	0.3	1.0
Luke Ridnour	6.8	3.6	1.6	2.6	41.9%	1.2	83.7%	0.4	0.2	0.8
Charlie Bell	4.2	0.9	1.4	1.6	41.8%	0.4	78.6%	0.5	0.0	0.5
Tyronn Lue	3.0	0.7	0.7	1.1	43.0%	0.4	86.7%	0.3	0.0	0.2
Joe Alexander	2.1	0.2	1.5	0.9	49.5%	0.2	65.1%	0.0	0.2	0.2
Dan Gadzuric	1.9	0.1	2.0	0.9	49.1%	0.2	50.5%	0.0	0.3	0.2
Francisco Elson	1.9	0.2	2.0	0.9	47.9%	0.2	72.7%	0.0	0.3	0.2
Adrian Griffin	1.4	0.5	1.1	0.6	41.6%	0.1	74.7%	0.0	0.0	0.3
OTHER	0.8	0.1	0.7	0.4	42.9%	0.1	70.3%	0.0	0.1	0.2

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jayz52 said:

u omitted amir johnson's name from the pistons....he's a starter u know.

October 29, 2008

bankier said:

Have U changed the data for MIl? I have Rindour on my rooster and I am pretty sure that he hed different stats...and he should as he is the 1st PG on the team!!!

October 28, 2008