NBA Preview: Atlantic Division

Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

The Atalntic Division is coming off a year in which a couple teams made vast improvements (Toronto and Philadelphia) and one team dominated the entire regular season and playoffs (Boston). AccuScore has run millions of simulations for the upcoming season and the preliminary results are posted below for each team.

BOSTON CELTICS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Boston Celtics			58	24	98.3	89.4	72.6%		99.4%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	45%	21%	18%	12%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
The Celtics lost their top bench player, James Posey, and the improvement of Eastern Conference teams like Philadelphia results in 'just' 58 forecasted wins, down from their league leading 66 last season. The Celtics are still the overwhelming favorite for best record in the East. They have a 73 percent chance of winning the Atlantic. The Celtics will rely on their defense to carry them allowing under 89.4 points per game in 2008-2009 simulations (lowest in the league). The Celtics' biggest challenge this season will be internal -- Can they keep their Big 3 healthy? Can they maintain their defensive focus and avoid complacency after winning? Can Rajon Rondo become a consistent 14 point, 8 assist per game PG or will he continue to be a 24 points one night, 4 points the next, type player?
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Paul Pierce	19.3	4.4	5.5	6.0	43.2%	5.6	81.4%	1.7	0.4	1.2
Kevin Garnett	18.9	3.6	10.8	7.3	46.8%	4.1	81.6%	0.1	1.3	1.2
Ray Allen	16.7	3.3	4.1	5.5	42.2%	3.6	90.5%	2.1	0.2	1.1
Rajon Rondo	9.6	5.2	4.7	4.0	46.2%	1.6	64.6%	0.1	0.2	1.7
Kendrick Perkins	6.2	1.1	6.2	2.5	53.6%	1.3	62.9%	0.0	1.5	0.4
Sam Cassell	6.0	2.0	1.5	2.3	42.9%	1.1	87.0%	0.3	0.1	0.5
Darius Miles	4.9	0.7	1.8	2.1	48.3%	0.7	57.6%	0.0	0.4	0.5
Eddie House	4.7	1.0	1.4	1.8	41.1%	0.3	90.3%	0.8	0.1	0.5
Leon Powe	4.4	0.1	3.2	1.6	51.9%	1.3	70.7%	0.0	0.2	0.2
Tony Allen	4.2	0.7	1.6	1.5	46.5%	1.0	76.5%	0.1	0.2	0.7
Glen Davis	2.8	0.2	2.2	1.0	47.4%	0.7	65.4%	0.0	0.2	0.3
OTHER	0.7	0.1	0.7	0.3	39.8%	0.1	69.9%	0.0	0.1	0.1

NEW JERSEY NETS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
New Jersey Nets			25	57	97.1	104.8	0.0%		6.2%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%	12%	19%	21%	43%	26%
When two of the four projected scorers are rookies you know you have a team that is rebuilding and not expected to win many games. AccuScore is high on Chris Douglas Roberts because he is such a good transition player and with the speedy Devin Harris at PG he should get plenty of transition points. Douglas Roberts is also a good, hard-working, defensive player which should earn him more time than some other SF options on the team like Yi Jianlian. Vince Carter's tendency to miss a lot of games due to injury also opens up minutes at SG/SF for Douglas Roberts. Rookie Brook Lopez is the only player on the roster who can average over 7 points in the low post which is why he is projected to put up more points than other big men on the team. Do not expect these rookies to necessarily be averaging these numbers in the first month of the season, but as the season progresses look for them to emerge.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Vince Carter	20.0	5.1	5.4	6.7	41.1%	5.2	80.2%	1.4	0.5	1.2
Devin Harris	15.2	5.8	2.9	5.3	47.8%	3.9	81.4%	0.6	0.3	1.5
Chris Douglas Roberts	12.6	2.7	4.7	4.8	43.0%	2.5	72.8%	0.5	0.9	1.6
Brook Lopez	8.1	1.2	6.9	3.2	44.2%	1.7	61.1%	0.0	1.3	0.5
Yi Jianlian	8.1	0.9	4.7	3.0	38.9%	2.0	84.8%	0.1	0.9	0.7
Bobby Simmons	7.4	1.4	2.9	2.8	40.5%	1.1	78.9%	0.7	0.1	0.8
Josh Boone	7.1	0.6	5.7	2.8	51.0%	1.5	49.2%	0.0	0.7	0.5
Eduardo Najera	5.7	1.1	3.4	2.2	47.2%	1.0	71.9%	0.4	0.4	0.9
Sean Williams	5.3	0.4	4.0	2.1	49.5%	1.1	60.9%	0.0	1.4	0.5
Keyon Dooling	4.1	0.8	0.2	1.5	44.5%	0.8	84.3%	0.2	0.0	0.1
Jarvis Hayes	3.9	0.4	0.3	1.5	42.4%	0.4	79.7%	0.5	0.0	0.1
Trenton Hassell	2.2	0.7	0.2	1.0	44.4%	0.3	78.7%	0.0	0.0	0.0
OTHER	4.4	0.5	0.5	1.8	45.5%	0.4	75.1%	0.3	5.0%	0.2

PHILADEPHIA 76ERS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Philadelphia 76ers			48	34	99.4	95.8	16.3%		85.8%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	7%	17%	21%	20%	18%	12%	4%	0%	0%	0%
The Sixers are forecasted for a significant 8 win improvement with the addition of Elton Brand. The team has a 24 percent chance of winning 55+ games. Brand is a perfect fit for a team whose obvious weakness was low post scoring. Brand will also pair with Samuel Dalembert to form one of the best shot-blocking front courts in the league. The main reason why Philly is not forecasted to seriously threaten Boston for the Atlantic (Philly wins division just 16% of the time) is they still lack a consistent three point shooter. No one is currently forecasted to average even 1 made three pointer per game this season and Andre Miller is probably the worst long-range shooting PG in the league. The Sixers will win a lot of games thanks to excellent offensive rebounding with Brand, Dalembert and super athletic players like Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Andre Iguodala	18.5	5.4	5.6	6.3	45.0%	5.0	76.3%	0.9	0.5	1.7
Elton Brand	17.8	2.7	9.1	6.8	51.5%	4.1	76.1%	0.0	2.2	1.0
Andre Miller	15.1	7.4	4.0	6.1	48.3%	3.0	77.1%	0.0	0.1	1.2
Samuel Dalembert	10.4	0.7	9.6	4.1	51.5%	2.2	72.2%	0.0	2.3	0.5
Louis Williams	10.2	3.1	2.0	3.5	42.3%	2.5	76.4%	0.6	0.1	0.9
Thaddeus Young	10.1	1.1	5.1	4.3	52.8%	1.5	75.2%	0.1	0.1	1.0
Willie Green	5.7	0.8	1.1	2.4	43.1%	0.6	72.0%	0.3	0.1	0.4
Kareem Rush	4.0	0.6	1.0	1.6	40.9%	0.2	71.8%	0.7	0.1	0.3
Royal Ivey	2.6	0.7	0.7	1.0	42.2%	0.3	71.9%	0.2	0.1	0.3
Reggie Evans	2.4	0.2	3.2	1.0	48.5%	0.5	48.9%	0.0	0.1	0.4
Theo Ratliff	1.9	0.1	1.4	0.8	50.0%	0.3	66.9%	0.0	0.6	0.1
OTHER	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.4	43.9%	0.1	68.0%	0.0	0.2	0.1

TORONTO RAPTORS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
Toronto Raptors			46	36	99.8	97.5	10.2%		78.0%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	3%	11%	19%	21%	20%	16%	8%	2%	0%	0%
Jose Calderon is expected by the Raptors and AccuScore to be an All-Star PG this season nearly averaging a double-double, a better than 4.5 to 1 assist to turnover ratio, while shooting over 51 percent from the field. The addition of Jermaine O'Neal provides much needed interior defense and low post scoring and it allows Chris Bosh to play PF and not get beat up by Centers all season long. O'Neal is definitely past his prime so Toronto is not adding an All-Star to the squad. They are adding a good player and are forecasted for 46 wins (a nice +5 win improvement on last season's total. Toronto does have a 33 percent chance of winning 50+ games. To do this they need former #1 pick Andrea Bargnani to be more than the 38%, 10 point per game player he is in simulations. If he can become a poor man's Dirk Nowitzki and average 14 points, 6 rebounds on 45% shooting the Raptors will still be disappointed by the #1 pick, but they will be a legit threat in the East.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Chris Bosh	21.1	2.4	9.5	7.5	44.8%	6.1	81.3%	0.2	1.2	0.9
Jose Calderon	14.0	9.5	3.4	5.6	51.8%	1.9	86.7%	1.0	0.1	1.2
Jermaine O`Neal	13.5	2.1	7.3	4.9	41.3%	3.6	75.6%	0.0	2.2	0.5
Anthony Parker	11.5	2.4	4.2	4.1	44.6%	1.8	81.9%	1.5	0.2	1.0
Andrea Bargnani	9.9	1.1	3.7	3.4	38.3%	2.0	83.1%	1.2	0.6	0.4
Jamario Moon	7.9	1.3	6.2	3.2	45.3%	0.9	74.7%	0.5	1.4	1.0
Jason Kapono	7.5	1.0	1.8	2.9	46.5%	0.7	86.1%	0.9	0.0	0.5
Carlos Delfino	4.0	0.7	1.9	1.4	40.5%	0.5	75.6%	0.6	0.1	0.4
Kris Humphries	2.8	0.2	1.8	1.2	48.4%	0.4	61.6%	0.0	0.2	0.2
Hassan Adams	2.8	0.2	0.9	1.2	54.2%	0.4	71.2%	0.0	0.1	0.2
Joey Graham	2.7	0.2	1.2	1.1	47.4%	0.5	85.1%	0.1	0.0	0.2
OTHER	3.5	0.9	0.9	1.4	45.5%	0.4	72.1%	0.2	0.0	.4

NEW YORK KNICKS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST				BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS			W	L	PS	PA	WIN DIVISION		PLAYOFFS
New York Knicks			25	57	107.8	113.5	0.0%		5.7%
WINS	60+	55-59	50-54	45-49	40-44	35-39	30-34	25-29	21-24	<=20
Win Total Range	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%	11%	17%	21%	47%	30%
It's hard to tell what will happen in NY. The team will certainly play at a fast paced so expect over 107 points per game from the Knicks offense. Unfortunately the defense is allowing over 113. Based on early preseason action it looks like Zach Randolph is still going to be the first option on offense even though you would not think he is a fit for Mike D'Antoni. Stephen Marbury is playing off the bench with Chris Duhon starting. No offense to Duhon, but it is hard to imagine him being the starting PG on a winning team any time soon. At the very least things should be very interesting in NY. We will get to see if it was Steve Nash that made D'Antoni look good in Phoenix, or is it D'Antoni's system that can make a good player seem great and below average players, like the Knicks, look average.
PLAYER FORECAST	PTS	AST	REB	FGM	FGP	FTM	FTP	3PM	BLK	STL
Zach Randolph	18.4	1.7	9.7	7.4	46.2%	3.4	79.4%	0.2	0.2	0.9
Jamal Crawford	18.2	5.1	2.9	6.2	40.6%	4.0	85.3%	1.9	0.2	1.1
Eddy Curry	14.3	0.6	5.4	5.4	57.5%	3.5	62.4%	0.0	0.5	0.4
Chris Duhon	10.2	6.5	2.8	3.5	39.2%	1.5	79.1%	1.5	0.1	1.0
David Lee	9.7	1.3	8.9	3.8	58.1%	2.2	81.0%	0.0	0.4	0.8
Nate Robinson	9.3	2.0	3.1	3.3	43.0%	1.7	78.3%	1.0	0.1	1.0
Quentin Richardson	8.3	1.8	5.4	3.0	38.8%	1.1	70.2%	1.2	0.2	0.8
Stephon Marbury	7.2	2.5	1.4	2.4	41.6%	1.8	76.4%	0.6	0.1	0.6
Allan Houston	3.3	0.4	0.2	1.3	41.3%	0.3	81.0%	0.5	0.0	0.0
Fred Jones	2.4	0.4	0.3	0.9	39.4%	0.3	82.9%	0.3	0.0	0.2
Wilson Chandler	2.4	0.2	0.6	1.1	46.4%	0.2	64.1%	0.1	0.1	0.1
OTHER	3.2	0.4	0.7	1.3	41.0%	0.3	66.8%	0.2	0.1	0.2

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Terrible Projections said:

What did you guys run NBA Live 08 10,000 times to get these stats?

Terrible.

October 28, 2008

jamie said:

how do you guys have the knicks finishing so high?? they blow chunks.

projections in terms of the teams records look fine.

October 28, 2008

Cliff M said:

delfino has a predicted statline haha

October 28, 2008

POKERMAN195 said:

Terrible Projections, u r not looking at the fact that Jermaine will get the ball more than Bosh, so yes Bosh's stats will suffer just a little bit but not much. AMITYVILLE HORROR is correct, once Curry gets his wind, he is going to be nice trade value in the future depending on Jared Jeffries play this year. This system will open up everyones eyes to the KNICKERBOCKERS!

October 28, 2008

Amityville Horror said:

Once Curry gets his wind under him, he is going to be a beast,practically unstoppable. This new system has him motivated. Everybody loves to run and gun and Curry is still very young and he wants in on it. This system put Phoenix on da map in which they also had no defense!! Nate and Stephon will run the system better than Nash did and Jamal and Zach are gonna be on fire!!! LOCK AND LOAD FELLAS, HERE WE COME

October 28, 2008

jesus124312 said:

david lee will average 15 ppg and 10 rpg this year, this guy doesn't know what he's talking about

October 28, 2008

Adam T. said:

Accuscore doesn't even have Ryan Gomes for Minnesota listed anywhere, nor Amir Johnson for Detroit. It's as if they aren't part of the team. Or, more likely, that this guy doesn't know his basketball and forgot that Ryan Gomes was a starter last year and Amir Johnson is a likely starter this year. Terrible. And he also predicts Travis Outlaw to score 7 points and get 2 boards a game, even though Martell Webster is now injured (and last year Outlaw was 12 and 5 from the bench when Webster was healthy).

Accuscore has no credibility with me.

October 27, 2008

Terrible Projections said:

Horrible. Chris Bosh at 44% shooting? He is a career 49% why would he go down with the addition of Jermaine O'neal.

VC at 20ppg? Are you kidding me. Who else is going to score that terrible team.

Lmao @ Eddy Curry 14.6 ppg. Guy can't even run up and down the court with D'antoni's style.

Terrible.

October 27, 2008

pokerman195 said:

The Knicks r the most talented/scorers at every position. Their problem was chemistry. Coaches new system will show that. The knicks r going to be very exciting this year. This fast tempo plays beautifully with the play of Jamal,Nate,Zach..and yes Curry, cause these guys are pure scorers..add alittle hustle with David Lee and Jared Jeffries, and u have the makings of the new Knick Dynasty with the prospects of getting LeBron/and or others!!

October 27, 2008

KC said:

Are you serious? Knicks playoffs? that team sucks...maybe next year.

October 27, 2008

Wow said:

Seriously, like to not even know what the roster is from top to bottom shows a lack of respect toward your job. We all can complain about the values being way off (you clearly didn't watch preseason to get a sense of what the Knicks plans are) but to not even have the roster players right is a smack in the face in anyone who has intelligence. Please reprimand the worker who is behind this article, it's flat out distasteful.

October 26, 2008

James S said:

C'mon guys - why should we take this even vaguely seriously when it has Fred Jones, Allan Houston, Curry playing minutes, Chandler doing nothing, Nate doing little, etc etc etc. No wonder that ESPN shows accuscore for mots teams but not the Knicks. Did you sanity check this stuff? You've spat out results but haven't even vaguely checked to see if they're reasonable.

October 26, 2008

Adam T. said:

First of all, the lineup from top to bottom is worse than Phoenix's. I can't imagine the Knicks winning more than 35 games this year unless they dump Curry and get a better PG for their system.

I agree with everyone else who said Chandler and Lee will have better seasons (as will Marbury), and that Curry won't. Randolph will put up his points in the half-court offense.

Anyway I predict Crawford to make the all-star team, because his shooting percentage will finally be average (say 44%) and the Knicks will win 28 games, still good for last place, barely behind New Jersey.

October 25, 2008

Peter O said:

Bad predictions

Curry is on the sh*tlist, and Marbury will probably work his way into the starting lineup.

In the preseason, Chandler's one of the top scorers/game on the Knicks, and Robinson too.

Robinson's probably going to be getting about 14-18 pts/game
Chandler's probably 8-14 pts/game depending on the PG
and Curry's probably going to be SINGLE DIGITs pts AND rebs b/c Randolph and Lee are getting most of the rebounds

These predictions/simulations you guys run should consider the preseason as well. Duhon's going to be moved to bench less than halfway into season for sure - no team is going to win with him as starting PG (even Rondo is WAY better - no joke).

October 25, 2008

Isiah Thomas said:

I didnt take sleeping pills because the knicks are good

October 24, 2008

jffffffffd said:

This Projectictions for the knicks are terrible i mean it has Eddy the fat boy curry geting 14 per game when he is not even starting and it has David Lee only getting 10 and 9 Curry does not really fit this system and has looked terrible in the preseason But Heres My projection
Crawford=21 pt 4 Assist
Randolph 18 pt 10 Bound
Lee=16 pt 10 Bound TWO 10 BOUNDERS!!!!!!!!!!
Marbury=12 Pt 6 Assist
Nate My Name Robinson=11 pt 3 assist
Duhon 9.5 Pt 7 Assist
Q RICH 8.4 PT 3 Bounds
Chandler 9 pt 4 Bound
Houston 6 pt
FRED JONES IS NOT ON THE ROSTER AND EDDY CURRY SUCKS
Projected Record 40-42 Playoffs

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