Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

We’re down to the stretch run and even though I don’t think the Celtics or Pistons are better than the Western Conference powers they will continue to beat up the weak East and finish 1 and 2 in the Power Rankings.  I do think the Cavaliers made good moves replacing “shooting” guard Larry Hughes with Delonte West and Wally Sczcerbiak.  The fact is, Hughes is a lousy perimeter shooter.  Daniel Gibson proved that if you can hit open jumpers you can thrive playing with LeBron.  The Cavaliers also aren’t losing a great defender in Hughes.  Hughes averaged nearly 3 steals his final season in Washington, but never came close to that since.  Besides, a lot of steals is not necessarily a good indicator of good defense. It just means you gamble a lot which often leaves your teammates vulnerable when you don’t get the steal.  I also like Joe Smith off the bench.  I think he is a better scorer than Drew Gooden. Remember, the guy had the talent to be the #1 Pick over Antonio McDyess, Rasheed Wallace, and Kevin Garnett.

Out West, the Lakers are cruising and when Andrew Bynum comes back they are the most talented and deepest team.  They are edging out a thriving Utah team.  It is crucial that Utah hold onto a Top 4 Seed because their chances to advance in the Playoffs hinge more on home court advantage than any other team.  I do think Jason Kidd will help Dallas this year, but they are not going to catch San Antonio for the 4th Spot in the West.  For much of the season, the Spurs have not played the type of defense that they rode to Championships, but they are showing signs of turning it on now.  With Tony Parker back from injury and Manu Ginobili emerging as one of the 3 most clutch players in the league I like San Antonio’s chances of meeting the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

A few final notes on a couple of my personal favorite teams.  Washington is finished with Caron Butler likely done for the season.  Tragically, the East is so pathetic that even with a 30% winning percentage the rest of the season they could still end up in the playoffs and out of the lottery.  I hope that they do not let Gilbert Arenas come back and risk further injury and instead work on re-signing Arenas and getting every one healthy for next year.  Out West, the Suns are in trouble.  I know the team is still figuring out how to integrate Shaq, but some of their horrible blowout losses (at home to Detroit, at New Orleans) cannot be attributed solely to the “newness” of playing with Shaq.  If Shaq was capable of dominating the boards (7 to 9 boards in 30 minutes IS NOT dominating, 12+ in 30 minutes is dominating), playing good defense and delivering good outlet passes then it would take around 2 seconds for Steve Nash to figure out how to “integrate” Shaq.  Our simulations showed Shaq hurt the Suns chances and there is no reason to believe that this isn’t the case after seeing their recent performances.

It’s amazing how one trade can lead to a total change in the entire NBA landscape.  Pau Gasol to the Lakers set off a frenzy of trade activity before the deadline with teams, mostly in the west, trying to match what the Lakers were able to pull off.  While the Lakers move was a no-brainer, other teams took huge risks in the hope that reshuffling their lineups would pay-off big.  The Lakers have been on a roll with Gasol in the lineup, winners of 10 straight, and still have Andrew Bynum coming back which should make them even stronger.  Phoenix has put their hopes on the “Big Cactus”, aka Shaq, which so far has produced mixed results. 

With Shaq in the lineup the Suns are just 2-3, with blowout losses to Detroit and New Orleans.  Perhaps it will just take time for them to gel and adjust to having the big guy, or maybe they just don’t have the defense and outside shooting to go along with Shaq.  After some delays, Dallas was able to make the move to acquire Jason Kidd from the Nets.  While Kidd’s best days are probably behind him, he’s still one of the top point guards in the league.  What he lacks in outside shooting, he more than makes up for in his ability to pass and rebound.  He should make the players around him better and provide Dirk the easy scoring opportunities he seems to have been missing this year.  The problem is what the Mavs had to give up to get him, losing a key big man in Diop and a rising star in Harris.  The Mavs are mortgaging their future to make a run at a championship now, but after getting embarrassed in the first round last year, the Mavs had to make a move and this was probably the best option out there.

 Out east, the only team to make a big move was the Cavs.  The pickups of Wallace, West, Szczerbiak and Smith should add key pieces around Lebron to make Cleveland the clear #3 team in the east.  We’ve already seen that Lebron is capable of carrying a team all the way to the NBA finals, with the extra help this team is a definite contender now to repeat that.  One final note, looks like Tracy McGrady will have to keep waiting to finally win a playoff series.  With Yao Ming out for the rest of the season, all realistic hopes the Rockets had are now gone.  Even after winning 13 straight, they are still only 2.5 games from being out of the playoffs in the wild west. 

Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
View Blog

Saturday is the deadline for players to be eligible for the playoffs so except for any veteran buyout candidates that switch rosters today, what you see is what you will get from your favorite team the rest of the year.

The Celtics have remained atop the rankings all year because of their great record and general weakness of the East, but showed their vulnerability in losing three straight in their latest western road trip.  I still think this team will earn a top seed, but I don’t know if P.J. Brown and possibly Sam Cassell will strengthen the bench enough to make a run all the way to the title.  This team has a strong dichotomy with the key players being either old or young with nobody of importance sitting squarely in their prime.

The Lakers have moved to the forefront in the West with their acquisition of Pau Gasol, and have ripped off nine straight wins looking pretty much unstoppable on offense.  The biggest deficiencies for L.A. have been post defense, vulnerability to dribble penetration due to the lack of a true shot blocking presence, and the lack of athleticism on the wing.  The first two problems will be fixed with the eventual return of Andrew Bynum in three to four weeks.  Gasol is more of a finesse player, and is adequate as a second post defender, but Bynum solves many of the defensive issues that the Lakers currently have.  Trevor Ariza should be ready to return sometime in the playoffs as well and solve the third problem making the Lakers a complete and dangerous team.

Houston has moved up all the way to the No.4 spot with its recent 12 game winning streak, but Yao Ming of course will not play again this season with a foot injury.  The Rockets will have to wait yet another season to win a playoff series.  The rest of the West is bunched up just like in the standings with Utah, Phoenix, Dallas, Denver, San Antonio, and New Orleans battling for position.  All of these teams might be favorites in the East, but instead they will fight just for seeding and homecourt the rest of the way.

LeBron James and the Cavs don’t profile well statistically because of their poor offense and inability to create turnovers.  Still, in any playoff series they will have a chance because James is likely to be the best player on the court at all times, and that of course was enough last season against the Pistons.  Their big deadline trade completely reshaped the roster so it will be interesting to see how the roster gels, and the minutes get doled out.  This is the one Eastern conference team I will be watching to see how they fare in the coming weeks.