Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

Based on my weighting the Spurs are just 10th in the league, but I increased their rankings in anticipation of Tony Parker coming back in a few weeks and the Spurs inevitably picking up their game in the 2nd half of the season.   With these changes the Spurs are 4th behind the Eastern Powers (Boston & Detroit) and the Lakers.  The Celtics have been more than impressive winning big games without Kevin Garnett.  The Lakers are my current favorite to come out of the West after the Pau Gasol trade.  The combo of Gasol and a healthy Bynum come March should more than off-set the Suns’ acquisition of Shaq while also giving them the size and depth to handle Tim Duncan and the Spurs. 

I actually consider Utah and Houston more of a playoff threat than Dallas.  The Mavs just don’t have “IT” this year.  They were beaten 84-76 in Philly on Monday Night.  The Mavs haven’t played nearly to last year’s level and they have that reputation for choking based on last year’s debacle.  Utah and Houston are the hottest teams in the West.  I especially like Utah because they can score efficiently from all parts of the court.  It’s hard for them to have a really bad game because they have multiple great 3 point shooters (Korver, Okur, Williams), a dominant low post scorer in Boozer, excellent mid-range shooting from Harpring, and the ability to be a Top 5 defensive team despite not playing great defense much of the year.  I would not be surprised if Utah ended up coming out of the West.

I would be shocked if Boston did not face Detroit in the Eastern Conference Finals.  Both teams would be 80%+ favorites to win a 7 game series over the 3 to 8 seeds (maybe a 67% favorite over Orland).  It does not look like Cleveland is going to be able to make any major moves since other teams don’t really want any of their players, except LeBron.  GM Danny Ferry should circulate DVDs of Larry Hughes’ 40 point night vs the Magic on 12/11 to bolster his trade value and counter the fact that he is shooting under 37% this year.

It’s been a pretty exciting past few weeks in the NBA with two of the largest mid-season trades in recent memory taking place.  Somehow hope in Lakerland was restored when Mitch Kupchack pulled off an incredible coup by dealing for Pau Gasol.  What’s interesting is that while it can be argued that Kwame Brown is the most disappointing #1 pick in the history of the NBA draft, he at least has contributed greatly to both teams he has played for…  in trade value.  Washington ended up with Caron Butler, the Lakers have Gasol, and who knows, maybe Memphis will be able to use the cap room after Kwame’s contract expires to sign a big name free agent.

The other big trade, in more ways than one, involved Shaq coming back west to join the run-and-gun Suns.  Like everyone else, my first reaction was “huh?”, but after thinking more about the move I believe it just might work out.  Phoenix might have been oh so close to making the NBA finals (and most likely a championship) last year, but it was clear that this trade had a lot to do with what was going on off the court as well as on.  Marion had been unhappy in Phoenix for a while, unhappy players don’t tend to play their best and also tend to dampen the mood in the locker room.  The Suns needed to make a move to trade either Marion or Amare, can’t blame them for choosing to keep the younger of the two.  The Suns also have always had trouble with teams with size, so really this trade does seem to make sense.  The big IF though is Shaq’s health.  Everyone knows that Shaq tends to take time off during the regular season for nagging injuries and who could blame him with the amount of pounding he takes (and gives).  However, when playoff time comes around, he’s been the most dominant force in the game for his entire career.  Shaq also loves to prove people wrong, as he stated in his press conference.  The Suns may be a run and gun team, but come playoff time the games tend to slow down, especially in the 4th quarter.  Now Phoenix has a legitimate threat down low for their half court sets and a big time force in the paint on defense.  The Suns may need to slow things down to keep Shaq involved, but so what.  Great players can adjust, and with Steve Nash still running the show I expect the Suns to be one of the favorites come playoff time.

In other news, Boston keeps rolling along even without KG, Detroit is right up there with them…  and that’s all you need to know about the east.  In the west you’ve got 9 teams winning over 60% of their games.  Not only that, but there’s only 5 games separating #1 Phoenix from the #9 spot and out of the playoffs, that’s nuts!  Portland has started to cool down, but they are still right there in the playoff hunt too.  Because of how tough the west is, it’s no surprise that’s where the big trades are happening as teams try to position themselves as best they can for the playoffs.  Home court advantage could play a huge role in who makes it through, so keep your eye out for more trades to go down in the west before the deadline (calling on Mark Cuban?).