Skip to content
NBA Power Rankings - 01/17/08 Print E-mail
DETERMINING POWER RATINGS

The AccuScore computer reviews team statistics to date and rates teams along multiple statistical dimensions including average margin of victory, field goal percentage, opponent field goal percentage, rebounding differential, turnover margin, points scored and points allowed.

The team that is best in any area is scored 100% and the lowest rated team is 0%.  Every other team is rated 1-99% based on their relative strength in that dimension.  AccuScore looks at relative power because it is more informative than numerical ranking.  For example, Boston has started the season with a sizable lead in margin of victory and at 100% is a full 15 percentage points higher than #2, San Antonio.  The difference between #2 San Antonio and #3 Utah is just 5%.   The difference between #5 Orlando and #12 Houston is less than the difference between #1 and #2.

Our analysts are provided with the raw data.  They are allowed to weight the different statistics by importance.  For example, one analyst might prioritize turnover margin and weight it by 2x while de-valuing rebounding differential and scoring it just 0.5.  In this example, a team’s rating in turnover margin would be worth 4 times as much as their rebounding rating.  In addition to customizing the power rating formula, the analyst is given the option to adjust a team’s rating in any category if they feel that team will be improving or getting worse in that statistical category in the near future.

Each Analysts’ individual power rating is posted along with the average of each team. 

Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

I'm reaching the point in the season where I abandon my preconceived expectations and rank teams based on the numbers. The Utah Jazz are surprisingly high on the power rankings despite having a poor road record and by being in the bottom quartile of the league in defensive FG%. There excellent ranking in rebounding and turnover margin keep them a Top 5 team despite having the 9th best record in the West. Of course they are just 5 games back of the best record in the West.  Look for Utah to start moving up the standing soon.

Houston is showing signs of turning this around. They are 10th in the West, but statistically they are ahead of the Spurs!!San Antonio is simply not playing great defense.I don't think the Rockets will catch San Antonio because the Spurs are a strong second half team, but if Tracy McGrady comes back and can stay healthy I do think they can get back into the playoffs. I am convinced that Portland is the real deal. Brandon Roy should get serious MVP consideration. I don't think they’ll win the division but I do think they will make the playoffs. LaMarcus Aldridge provides low post scoring, in addition to having a nice mid-range jumper and the guards may be young, but they shoot fairly well from the perimeter.

So right now I have 10 teams making the Western Conference playoffs. That obviously doesn’t make sense, but the fact is the difference between the best in the West and the #10 Team is not that great. Sacramento just beat Dallas without Bibby and Artest, so one could argue that there are 11 solid to good teams in the West.

In the East you still have Boston and Detroit leading the way, but you have to pay attention to the Wizards.  Caron Butler has quietly been the best Small Forward in the league since Gilbert Arenas went out.  He just led the Wizards to back-to-back wins over Boston and was THE clutch performer in crunch time. Washington lost Arenas' offensive talents, but they have become a very good defensive team especially on the boards and in turnover margin. When Arenas comes back and plays a more pure PG role the team could make a legit run to the Conference Finals.

Written by AccuScore anaylst - Chris Wells

So the Celtics are still on top and the Twolves are still on the bottom, not much is new right?  Well, sort of.  While Boston continues to be the top team in the league in terms of record and my power rankings, they have recently shown some vulnerability having lost to the Bobcats and twice to the Wizards in the past week.  Their offense went cold in those games and it will be important for the role players to step up for the Celts to get back on track.  The Lakers have moved up to #3 on the strength of a 7-game winning streak.  But the loss of Bynum will certainly hurt them over the next 2 months.  It will be interesting to see how Kobe and the rest of the team responds to this setback.  If the Seattle game was any indication, look for #24 to up his shots and his scoring as he tries to carry the team.

Those of us who thought the Blazers had no chance of keeping up their solid play have so far been proved wrong.  Prior to a couple of tough road losses to the Raptors and Celtics, the Blazers managed to win 17 of 18 and are now sitting on top of the Northwest division.  Brandon Roy continues his outstanding play, along with LaMarcus Aldridge, making this team a real threat to make the playoffs in the extremely tough western conference.  Did anyone catch the battle of the disappointments?  Shaq came back from injury and looked good, scoring 24 with 10 rebounds.  But it wasn’t nearly enough as the Bulls pulled away in the second half.  It’s amazing that it’s only been a couple seasons since the Heat won a championship.  For the Bulls, as bad as they have been they are lucky to be in the east and remain just 2.5 games out of the 8th spot for the playoffs.

Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
View Blog

Boston lost three of four. Detroit lost to the Knicks...by 24. Despite these recent tumbles, it is clear that the Celtics and Pistons are the top two teams in the East, and which team is best won't be decided until the Conference Finals. No other team is within 5 1/2; games in the East. Washington and Orlando are probably the next best teams out East and they rank just 8th and 13th in my rankings.

The West is a completely different story. Only five games separate the top nine teams in the conference, and only one game separates the top five squads.  The Lakers have won 17 of 20 games, and have yet to lose in the New Year which has propelled them to the top of the standings in the West, and third in my rankings.  Of course Andrew Bynum, a key figure in the recent surge for Los Angeles, is out for two months so I see the Lakers eventually settling in the 6-8 seed range for the playoffs.

With the standings so close, seeding seem that it will matter much less than the individual match-ups that will occur in the Western playoffs. I see the Lakers, Jazz, Mavericks, Suns, and Spurs all capable of reaching the Finals so this year’s playoffs will definitely be the best in recent history. The Warriors, Rockets, Blazers, Nuggets, and Hornets could also certainly win an opening round series.  Of course, two of these teams won’t even make the playoffs so this will be a dogfight to the end.

One happy note for the East; the Knicks won two games in a row beating Detroit and Washington. Congratulations to them for remembering for a few days they are an actual professional basketball team and leaving behind the soap opera.

Aaron Feldstein - AccuScore Analyst

Boston and Detroit are obviously the best two teams in the East, but one team to look out for is the Washington Wizards. Despite a recent loss to the Knicks, the Wizards are playing with a ton of confidence and managed to beat the Celtics in Boston. When Arenas comes back look for this team to be extremely dangerous in the playoffs. The Bulls are a complete with mess. The firing of Scott Skiles and the antics of Joakim Noah are the visible elements of a Bulls team that is imploding. Many people expected them to come out of the East at the beginning of this season, but as of now they're sitting in last place in the Central decision. I'm sure the front office is regretting that they didn't go after Kobe when they had the chance.

The wild, wild west is once again a mad race as only a few games are separating the top teams. Their are at least three extremenly competitve teams in each division in the West and the teams that started the season out slowly are starting to pick up steam. Utah hasn't lost in 2008 and Portland appears to be the real deal.

The Lakers have surprised everyone this year and with the loss of Bynum, expect Kobe's numbers to go up significantly. If they can't find a consistant second scoring option look for them to slide a little in the West. Look for Fisher to be more assertive and if problems in the middle continue, look for the Lakers to possibly go after Chris Webber or another low post presence. Dallas is also starting to come around now that the defense has picked up. The Maverick's will probablyfly under the radar, which is good for this team, but expect them to avenge last years playoff performance.

Trackback(0)
Comments (0)add comment

Write comment
quote
bold
italicize
underline
strike
url
image
quote
quote
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley

busy
 
< Prev   Next >