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Jonathan Lee - AccuScore Analyst

The season may be over, but the off-season never ends these days in professional sports. Thursday is the NBA draft and 29 teams will be trying to find that missing piece to bring them a champsion while the Celtics will be looking to stay on top. A smart pick can change the fortunes of a team forever while a mistake can haunt a franchise forever (wonder what Sam Bowie is doing these days?). This year the top of the draft comes down to two players: Kansas State’s Michael Beasley and Memphis’ Derrick Rose. Do the Bulls take the ready-made power forward scoring machine or the hometown point guard with size and athleticism all rolled into one? The right choice could propel them quickly back towards the top of the East. AccuScore analyst Jonathan Lee breaks down the top lottery candidates, as well as some other players that could provide solid value lower down in the order.

The following players have been rated on a one to three point scale in five offensive categories (two point field goal percentage, three point field goal percentage, assists, turnovers, and offensive rebounding) and four defensive categories (defensive rebounding, defensive field goal percentage, steals, blocks). Their rating is based on Jonathan Lee’s analysis of the type of impact they will have on their team. A rating of one indicates the player is no better than an average NBA player of the same position who gets regular playing time. A rating of two indicates positive impact (ex. enough to help a team rise 5 to 7 spots in league ranking for that statistic) and a rating of three indicates major impact (ex. enough to help a team rise 8 or more spots in league ranking).

The maximum offensive score is 15, the maximum defensive score is 12 and the overall maximum score is 27. An average NBA rotation player will score between 12 and 14. A borderline All-Star scores 15 to 17, while any player rated 18+ (or 50% better than your “average” player of the same position) has the potential to be an All-NBA player.

These players are rated on their projected first-year impact and their long-term impact (4th year and beyond). Continue reading to understand each player’s strengths and weaknesses. You will also see which players are likely to have a major first year impact and which ones may have the most long-term potential.

PLAYER
   JONATHAN LEE’s ANALYSIS
IMPACT
OVERALL
OFF
DEF
Derrick Rose
Rose is the likely top pick in the draft, and won’t drop past the two spot.  With the NBA shifting towards a faster perimeter-oriented game, his attractiveness is undeniable.  He has great size for the point guard position, and has superior athleticism to boot.  Rose was the best player at this season’s Final Four and showed terrific leadership skills, and that he knows how to run a team.  The only knock on him is his jumpshot, but that will improve over time.  Up until now he has been able to simply use his athletic ability to get to the rim.  Rose is my top prospect in the entire draft.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
15
7
7
LONG- 
TERM
19
11
8
Michael Beasley
He seems to have fallen behind Derrick Rose on the prospect totem pole, but that is no knock on Beasley.  He is a ready-made power forward with the ability to score inside and out and is a tenacious rebounder.  He probably could have started in the league last season.  Beasley simply dominated college basketball this season posting numbers even more impressive than Kevin Durant, the reigning Rookie of the Year, did two years ago.  There are some questions about his character dating back to his high school days, but he stayed out of trouble at Kansas St.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
15
9
6
LONG- 
TERM
19
11
8
Kevin Love
The question with Love is how much upside is there?  Love is limited athletically and is a bit short to play center in the league.  The skills he does possess however should overshadow any of those concerns.  He was unbelievably productive in college, and legitimately should have been in the Player of the Year discussions with Beasley and Tyler Hansborough considering what he accomplished in his one year at UCLA.  Love has skills rarely seen in a big man with legitimate three-point range, a ready-made set of post moves, terrific fundamentals, and a passing ability comparable to most point guards.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
14
9
5
LONG- 
TERM
17
11
6
Brook Lopez
Bigger is better, at least it is in the case of Lopez.  He measured out as the tallest player in the draft at a shade over 7–feet.  To top that off, he has a freaking 7’6” wingspan and a 9’5” standing reach.  Lopez was the go-to guy for Stanford averaging nearly 20 points and 2 blocks per game.  His athleticism and skill level are good enough, and he is clearly the best center in the draft.  There are questions about his upside.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
13
6
7
LONG- 
TERM
19
9
10
O.J. Mayo
Mayo is currently embroiled in an agent-payment scandal at USC, but that does not affect the type of player he is or will be in the NBA.  Because of the massive hype he received Mayo was seen as a bit of an underachiever in his only college season.  That would be a mistake to characterize Mayo as such because he put up fantastic numbers in the Pac-10 and carried the Trojans into the NCAA tournament.  His defense was also very underrated.  He did not get a chance to showcase his point guard skills in college, but he should eventually play the “one.”  His future could be as a scoring point guard sort of in the mold of Gilbert Arenas.  Mayo is older than typical freshman (he is already 21) but he is already a very good player, by all accounts he has a terrific work ethic, and still has more room to improve.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
15
8
7
LONG- 
TERM
20
11
9
Jerryd Bayless
Seattle has long been rumored to be Bayless’ landing spot in the draft.  If he does fall past number four, he certainly won’t last long.  Bayless is terrific at getting points around the basket, and has deep range on his jumper.  He is more of a combo guard, and struggled at times running the point for Arizona.  He probably has enough skill at the one spot eventually, and would best fit in an up-tempo system.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
14
8
6
LONG- 
TERM
17
11
6
Danilo Gallinari
This season’s top international player, Gallinari is a big of an enigma.  He has stated outright that he wants to play only in New York or New Jersey, and he has only held one-on-none workouts with those two teams.  This could be a reprise of the Yi Jianlian situation a year ago.   Gallinari has great size for the small forward position, and posted strong numbers in the Euro League despite being just 19.  He will need to work on his athleticism and three-point range at the next level.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
13
8
5
LONG- 
TERM
19
12
7
DeAndre Jordan
Another pure upside pick, Jordan already has the body of an NBA big man but nothing close to the game.  He has survived up to this point, and will be drafted on the fact that he is 7-feet and extremely athletic.  Think Dwight Howard without the desire and skill to dominate.  Jordan rebounds well, but scores almost exclusively off dunks and is almost completely devoid of offensive skill.  His motor and heart have also been questioned.  He also fell virtually out of Texas A&M’s rotation in the tournament which must raise a red flag.  Some team however will gamble on his combination of size and athleticism very early in the draft.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
12
6
6
LONG- 
TERM
17
7
10
D.J. Augustin
The best pure point guard in the draft, Augustin has a nice blend of lead guard and scoring skills albeit in a small package.  Augustin was the second shortest player measure at the pre-draft camp at just 5’11” in shoes.  He will need to overcome this disadvantage by gaining strength, and working on his consistency.  Is pegged for the late lottery, and size will likely prevent him from going any higher than that.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
14
9
5
LONG- 
TERM
18
12
6
Russell Westbrook
Westbrook went from unknown back-up to lottery pick in a manner of months.  His rise may be shocking to scouts and outsiders, but many within the UCLA program knew just what kind of potential he had even in his freshman season.  Far from a finished product at just 19 years old, Westbrook will be a pick for the future.  He is more of a combo guard at this point, but possesses good vision and ability to finish at the rim and should eventually end up at the point.  What he will bring immediately to any team is terrific perimeter defense (he was named Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year).  He has probably the most upside of any player coming out this season.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
14
7
7
LONG- 
TERM
20
11
9
Eric Gordon
Gordon’s stock dropped a bit after a poor finish to his season at Indiana.  He is still however one of the best pure scorer’s in this draft and will be perfect for a team looking for help at shooting guard.  He is often described as a bigger Ben Gordon.  Needs to work on shot selection and ball handling, but scoring skills outweigh negatives.  Measured out at just 6’3” at the draft camp.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
11
7
4
LONG- 
TERM
16
9
7
Anthony Randolph
Picking Randolph is making a bet on his future.  He’s certainly talented and he produced extremely well at LSU, but he weighed less than 200 pounds at the Orland pre-draft camp.  Not good when you’re expected to play power forward.  He does terrific length at 6’10” and a 7’3” wingspan, and has the athleticism of a small forward.  Randolph has all the talent in the world, but the only question will be his ability to grow and handle the rigors of playing inside in the NBA.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
11
5
6
LONG- 
TERM
16
7
9
Donte Greene
Long and lanky, Greene is at this point in his career almost strictly a three-point bomber despite being 6-foot-9.  He will bring good size and range to the frontcourt, but seems to do less with his considerable athletic gifts by standing out on the perimeter.  He will make his living in the NBA by shooting and scoring the basketball, and will need to work on hard to improve and vary his game particularly on the defensive end.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
10
6
4
LONG- 
TERM
15
7
8
Darrell Arthur
Nobody has ever questioned Arthur’s talent, but there have been concerns over his lack of consistency and focus.  His play greatly vacillated between indifference and dominance throughout his career at Kansas, but he put on his best performance in this season’s title run.  On paper Arthur looks like an ideal power forward with good hands and skill level.  He has a nice post up game, and can also step away and shoot it very well from mid-range.  He is also a very good defender and rebounder.  It really is up to Arthur just how good he wants to be as all the tools are there for him to become a high-level NBA player.  Could be a big boom or bust type pick.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
11
6
5
LONG- 
TERM
19
11
8
Joe Alexander
He is one of the fastest risers in this draft, and is one of the most athletic players as well.  Alexander has also just scratched the surface of his potential having blossomed in his junior season at West Virginia under Bob Huggins.  He worked in college mostly in the post and from mid-range, and will have to improve his fundamentals, and ability to create for himself in the NBA.  Alexander will take time to become a finished product, but he could pay off big-time for some team.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
12
6
6
LONG- 
TERM
18
9
9
Kosta Koufos
After a bit of an underwhelming freshman campaign (compared to the hype) Koufos appears to be working his way back up the draft board.  He is a skilled big man with good size and strength, and has dominated in youth international play for the Greek national team.  Koufos is more of a finesse player at this point, and lacks some power and toughness in his game, but there is a lot to like especially considering his size, age (19), and already high skill level.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
11
6
5
LONG- 
TERM
16
7
9
Robin Lopez
He and Brook Lopez may be twins, but their games are not completely similar.  Robin is a bit thinner than his brother, but possesses the same great length and is more athletic.  He is also much better on the defensive end being very active blocking shots and on the glass.  He is however much more raw than his brother and needs to work on his lost post game, and learn how to play without fouling.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
13
6
7
LONG- 
TERM
19
8
11
Brandon Rush
Rush’s stock has improved of late as he gets further and further away from his reconstructive knee surgery.  He should continue to improve his athleticism as time passes, and could be even more explosive by the time he puts on an NBA uniform in a real game.  Rush has everything you look for in a perimeter player with good size, athleticism, deep range, and good defensive ability.  He can play either shooting guard or small forward and combines the size and skill that is very difficult to find.  The biggest knock on Rush that he is too passive at times, and he also needs to work on his ballhandling and creating his own shot.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
12
7
5
LONG- 
TERM
19
12
7
Kyle Weaver
He’s a name that did not get a lot of publicity playing out in Pullman, but he was one of the best players in college basketball the past two seasons.  At 6-foot-5, Weaver can do a little bit of everything and has an excellent feel for the game.  Nothing jumps out at first sight, but he just knows how to play basketball.  Weaver has the ability to play some point, and is a fantastic defender.  His jumpshot is a bit funky, but he will earn paychecks by playing defense and contributing in all facets of the game. 
ROOKIE 
YEAR
12
6
6
LONG- 
TERM
15
8
7
Malik Hairston
Hairston often played out of position at Oregon as the fourth man in a four-wing offense.  He did not match the hype he had coming out of high school, but he still does plenty of things well particularly on the offensive end.  Hairston is not the most athletic player out there, but he is smart and unselfish and has a good all-around feel for the game.  Hairston shot 53% from the field last year, and has range out to the three-point line (43%) as well.  He isn’t terribly quick, and is a bit small for the small forward position which will limit his defensive effectiveness.  Hairston should be a good offensive minded small forward in the mold of another former Pac-10 player, Luke Walton.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
10
6
4
LONG- 
TERM
13
7
6
Mario Chalmers
Chalmers will forever be remembered hitting the last second three-pointer to second the national title game into overtime.  He also should be a solid pro.  Chalmers is a great shooter (.516 FG, .468 3P this season) who also happens to play great defense.  He’s got long arms and very good quickness, and as his title performance showed, he’s fearless.  He might not be a pure point guard or even a full-time starting guard, but he can help a team immediately and play a long time in the league.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
14
8
6
LONG- 
TERM
15
9
6
Alexis Ajinca
Ajinca is a 20-year old 7-footer from France.  He is long and wiry, and is compared to LaMarcus Aldridge or Mikki Moore due to his frame.  He prefers to play facing the basket, and lacks the strength currently to play down low.  He has solid potential on the boards and on defense due to his incredible wingspan (7-foot-8) and good athleticism.
ROOKIE 
YEAR
10
4
5
LONG- 
TERM
14
6
8

 

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