Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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Was it a foul or wasn’t it?  Whether or not Derek Fisher fouled Brent Barry at the end of Game 4 will be discussed in San Antonio for the rest of time, but nothing will change the fact that the Lakers have complete control of this series having to win just one of the next three games, two of them in Los Angeles.  AccuScore simulations now make the Lakers 95 percent favorites to close out the series, a number that matches the historical likelihood in which teams go on to win in the playoffs with the same lead.  The foul/non-call should not be the issue.  There were several other factors that will ultimately prevent San Antonio from once again winning consecutive NBA championships. 

Manu Ginobili’s absence has devastated the Spurs… At times Ginobili looks like he is one of the 10 best players in the NBA dominating games with his unique style of shooting and ability to get to the basket.  In this series he has, with the exception of Game 3, all but disappeared.  It is no coincidence that the only win the Spurs have had so far against the Lakers was in Game 3 when Ginobili scored 30 points.  Because of the style San Antonio plays, it needs all three of its starts, Ginobili, Tony Parker, and Tim Duncan to score.  Over the course of the year, both regular season and playoffs combined, the trio has played together in 73 games.  When all three players score in double figures and shoot at least 40 percent from the field the Spurs are 21-4.  In the other 48 games they are just 28-20 meaning the team winning percentage drops from 82 percent to just 58.4 percent.  Clearly, San Antonio is at its best when Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili are scoring at the same time, and that has not happened in this series.

Granted, Ginobili is nursing several injuries including ailments with his ankle, calf, and finger.  He is however, hurting his team by being on the floor and providing nothing in terms of shooting, passing, or defense.  Instead of the All-NBA performer everybody knows he is, Ginobili looks like a 9^th or 10^th man on a roster right now against the Lakers.  If the Spurs want to get a win and extend this series Ginobili must find a way to contribute offensively.  They cannot count on another outburst by a veteran like Barry again.

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