| Lakers Force Series Back to Boston |
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Survive to play another day. That was the Lakers’ mantra on Sunday, and will continue to be until the end of the series. That really is the only way to look at this situation; it doesn’t matter how you play, it only matters that you win. The Celtics know that as well, and their stifling defense brought them back once again from a big first quarter deficit. The comeback fell just short this time however, and now Boston will have two shots to close out the series at home. Despite the Celtics seemingly dominating the Finals and appearing to be the better team to observers, statistically it is another story. Sunday was the first time either team had won both halves in the series (the Lakers won the first half by three, and the second half by two). The statistics have been so close in fact, that AccuScore projects Boston to be just a 53 percent favorite at home in Game 6, the exact same percentage they were favored by in Game 1. That means that even after five games of battling it out neither team has yet to gain a significant statistical advantage. What has been abundantly clear is that Paul Pierce is the best player in this series. Outside of Game 3, he has been the dominant force in this NBA finals, and the Lakers continue to look for answers to defend him. Look for Phil Jackson to try and find some other wrinkle in an attempt to slow him down. Kendrick Perkins will still be a question mark due to his shoulder injury as will be the status of Rajon Rondo’s ankle. Because of this, both teams will likely continue to play small ball against each. That means more Eddie House, Sam Cassell, and Tony Allen for the Celtics, and plenty of Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic for the Lakers. The emotion will be ramped up in the Garden for Game 6 as the Boston fans clamor to see its first title since 1986 on their home floor. The Lakers will pull out all the stops to try and prevent that from happening. Except maybe playing Chris Mihm again. Trackback(0)
Comments (5)
Numbers!
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Jonathan Lee AccuScore Analyst
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I heard a guy at the office was giving 4 to 1 odds against the Lakers (or would that be 1 to 4?). Anyways I asked him about it, and said I'd bet him $20 on the Lakers winning. he said "So if the Lakers lose you give me $20, and if the Lakers win, I give you $80". I said, "Yep". He hesistated and said, "I'll think about it". Maybe I shouldn't have been so eager, because I'm still waiting ... |
caley
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Hi all... Using Vegas odds of LA: 170 BOS: -200 i calculated the Vegas%Win as follows - LA: 35.71% BOS: 64.29% Match the Accuscore SIM%Win of LA: 47% and BOS: 53% and it seems like the clear pick is LA given the Vegas odds above. My question is... what is the difference between a "side value prediction" and a "money line prediction"?? following the example given on the Accuscore website: http://accuscore.com/download/DLRARCHIVE.pdf LA is given the side value prediction because the SIM%Win outweighs the Vegas%Win. Boston is give the money line prediction because BOS is over 50% chance to win??? This doesn't make sense to me. When the Accuscore system gives a side value prediction don't you use that information to bet that team on the money line?? Or does it mean you should bet the spread?? My guts are telling me to bet LA on both the Spread and the Money Line. Please help. Does side value prediction mean to bet that team's money line or spread? Cheers. |
NUMBERS!
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Thanks, Jon. Hey, that's not very bad odds for the Lakers. YES, WE CAN! |
jonlee
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Correct. |
Numbers!
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Check my math, please. Using the 53% for Boston for the rest of the series, I have Boston at a 78% chance to win the whole series, and Los Angeles at 22%. |
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