Lakers-Celtics Finals Preview

Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

Jonathan Lee AccuScore Analyst
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Stephen Oh’s Take

The Lakers have dominated the Playoffs despite playing in perhaps the most competitive conference in league history. They totally dismantled the Spurs. They played so well that Sasha Vujacic looked like Michael Cooper when he was defending Manu Ginobili. Boston ended the Eastern Conference Finals with an impressive second half comeback in Detroit, but beating Detroit in a big Eastern Conference Final is no longer a huge accomplishment considering Cleveland and Miami were both able to beat-down Detroit in Game 6.

The AccuScore baseline simulation clearly shows that the Lakers are statistically better than Boston. They are winning 61% of series simulations despite Boston having home court advantage. In pre-series simulations the Lakers are nearly even money on the road winning 47 percent of simulations and are solid 65 percent favorites at home. While my heart is with Boston because I want KG to win a championship, my head is with the Lakers. Here’s why:

1. There are three superstars in this series: Kobe, KG, and Paul Pierce. The only advantage Boston has is the fact that two of the three are Celtics. Unfortunately for Boston, I feel that the only other Celtic that would see significant minutes if they were on L.A. would be Ray Allen. Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo have played very well, but if they started the season as Lakers I believe Rondo would be the third-stringer to Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar and Kendrick Perkins would play behind Gasol and Turiaf.

2. Pau Gasol seems like he’s growing. Prior to joining the Lakers I probably saw Gasol play five times over the years since Memphis never got much attention. I know he was listed at 6’11” or 7’0” tall, but he looks like he’s well over 7 feet these days. He is not a good defender, but he is extremely effective clogging the middle with his arms straight up in the air. Perkins is not tall enough or quick enough off his feet to score over Gasol. KG seems to have lost a few inches off his vertical leap since coming into the league and I feel he will also struggle to finish around the basket. The Lakers will have a huge advantage getting easy layups and dunks.

3. Lamar Odom is a great defensive option on KG. When Lamar Odom is motivated and playing without pressure like he is on this Laker team (3rd offensive scoring option) he is a top-12 player in terms of his ability to fill a stat sheet. He has the height to get a hand in KG’s face and he has the quickness of a small forward to defend KG’s perimeter game. Garnett got a ton of wide open 18-footers against Detroit because Rasheed Wallace was playing a little soft. I think Odom will be better defending KG than any of the Pistons were.

4. If Rondo had another two years of experience I think his size, quickness and athleticism would give him an edge over Fisher. Unfortunately at this point, Rondo will be outplayed by Fisher on both ends of the court. On defense Rondo made several errors helping on defense rather than staying with his primary defensive assignment (Chauncey Billups) leaving him wide open for big three pointers. If Rondo has to help on Kobe or makes a mental error and unnecessarily doubles down on Odom or Gasol he will leave Fisher wide open. On the other end of the floor you’ll see Fisher pressure the ball and Rondo could struggle executing pick and rolls in the fourth quarter when the pressure is on.

Those are four reasons why I think the Lakers will win, and I didn’t even mention the fact that Bryant is the best player in the league who is also playing at his best. I think L.A. will win in six games because they will win one of the first two games in Boston. I do not think anyone can beat Boston three games in a row so I see the series going back to Boston with LA winning 3-2. I see Boston taking a lead in Game 6, but Kobe eventually leading the Lakers to a victory. However, if the series goes seven games I do think Boston will have the edge at home in a Game 7. I am a believer in Paul Pierce’s ability to deliver like he did against Cleveland and I feel the pressure of Game 7 would get to the Lakers’ young bench players.

Jonathan Lee’s Take

Right at this moment the Lakers are the best team in the NBA. Led by Kobe Bryant they rolled through the playoffs with a 12-3 record even though the West was perceived to be the toughest it has been perhaps in history. Everything is clicking for them at the moment. Boston ran through the regular season with at 66-16 record and looked to be an unstoppable force destined to reach this point. It hasn’t worked out that way as the Celtics seem to have lost their way just enough for people to question just how good they truly are. None of the key players for Boston have ever reached this point, and Doc Rivers tried his hardest to coach his team OUT of the playoffs by juggling minutes and changing rotations and strategies almost minute to minute. We’ll soon find out which team is best as these two rivals meet for the first time in 21 years in the NBA Finals. This was the match-up that everybody, myself including, has hoped for months for. There is no conspiracy at work here, these two teams proved themselves to be the best over the course of the year.

Our simulations have L.A. as the strong favorites because they have been so impressive this postseason. Kobe has shown that knack of the all-time greats to know and feel when to take over a game, and he has the ability to do it. Twice against the Spurs he saw that his team need him, and the defense could do nothing to stop him. He has learned how to do this without stamping out the contributions of his teammates which is the biggest difference in him this season. If the Lakers had Andrew Bynum, I don’t this would be much of a contest. They don’t so there are a few key factors to keep an eye in this series.

I definitely agree with Stephen that Lamar Odom is a perfect match for this series with Boston. He has figured out this postseason that no power forward in the league can stay with his quickness. He also showed more mental focus against the Spurs figuring out how to remain effective despite previously playing poorly in the same game.

Kendrick Perkins is a very physical player and has improved considerably over the past month, but he is no Tim Duncan which is wonderful news to Pau Gasol. The 7-foot Laker savior showed more aggressiveness on both ends of the court against the Spurs, and he will now be able to utilize his size and skill advantage against a shorter less-experienced Perkins. Boston may need to double-down on Gasol, and he has a terrific knack for finding cutters in traffic as well as spot up shooters.

Derek Fisher is not half the athlete Rajon Rondo is, at least not anymore but he is heady and skilled and understands what this stage is all about. Rondo has shown that his confidence wavers particularly with Sam Cassell looming over his shoulder and calling for more playing time and shots. Fisher, and even Jordan Farmar should be able to find space for their three point jumpers and dribble drives as Rondo tends to drift and gamble on defense. Rondo needs to focus on pressuring the basketball and attacking the rim at all times. Rivers needs to instill some trust in Rondo, and allow him to play through mistakes in order to keep his head into this series.

The issue of the bench must factor into this series. The Celtics are essentially playing a seven man rotation with just P.J. Brown and James Posey getting steady minutes. They would be wise to use the physicality of Leon Powe and Glen Davis and the shooting of Eddie House to change the complexion of games even if only for 5-8 minutes per game. This won’t happen though as they have not seen the floor in the playoffs despite being major contributors all year. Phil Jackson is clearly the better coach in this match-up, which gives L.A. a major edge. He trusts his bench to play, and play well and they often reward him by bringing the Lakers back with shooting and high-energy plays.

The Celtics won both times these teams faced off in the regular by comfortable margins. Throw those games out of the window, forget them. It is complete fallacy to try and look at those games and try to glean any insights into how this series will go. Both teams are very different from those games, and the two have not squared off after the arrival of Gasol who of course will have a sizable impact. Plus, the youth factor plays a role here as the Celtics are the older team and their starters have logged heavy minutes throughout the players without much help from the bench. Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen need to score and score consistently upwards of 70 points combined in each game. There will likely be precious few points coming from other players for Boston. Los Angeles executes offensive as well as anyone in the league, and Bryant of course could probably score 60 against a constant quadruple team. The Lakers are simply the better team right now, and they have the ultimate closer on their side, the best player on the planet in Kobe Bryant. He did not get to this point to lose again in the Finals. Kobe will get his first ring sans-Shaq, Phil Jackson will break Red Auerbach’s title record with 10, and Los Angeles will get to raise another banner and have a parade down Figueroa. The pick is Lakers in six.

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Brian215 said:

Make me an offer. I'm willing to write for you guys at the right price. Read my previous comment and then your analysis. Obvious Laker fans.

June 18, 2008

Who's Attacking? said:

Thank you for answering my question, even though you did it in a totally douchebag manner. I wasn't attacking anybody, I was asking how it worked.

June 05, 2008

LearnMath said:

"Question", if you think that you are discussing probability you don't know statistics. If a team is a 51% favorite at home, they are not expected to win all four home games. The odds of that are 51%*51%*51%*51% = 6.7% and they would actually be expected to win 2 of those 4 games. If the opponent has a 99% of winning the 3 road games, they have a 97% chance of winning all three. Thus the team with 4 home games would actually be expected to go 2-5 over those seven games. Know math before you attack somebodies statistics...

June 04, 2008

Question said:

Just in a probability sense, it seems strange because if a team was favored 51% and 49% against for each of its 4 home games, and 1% favored and 99% against for 3 games, they still would be expected to win 4 games and lose 3 (even if they lose the 3 by a lot), so that's a little weird.

June 04, 2008

jonlee said:

Each team is favored at home, but each game in Boston is currently closer to 50/50 with Game 1 having the Celtics as 53% favorites. The Lakers are much bigger favorites at home which adds up to them being favored overall in this series.

June 04, 2008

Question said:

How can the Lakers be favored by accuscore for the series?

Are they favored for at least one of games in Boston?

June 04, 2008

Brian215 said:

This is the most biased analysis I've seen so far! Rondo and Perkins would sit behind Farmar and Turiaf? Please!!! Rondo has been up and down this postseason but mostly up and did start all year on a team that won 66 games!!! Perkins had a 18-16 game #5 against a Detroit frontline that plays much better physically and defensively than the Lakers. Ray Allen, seven time all-star, lit up the last 2 games of the Pistons series and goes without mention in your analysis? Lamar Odom is a great matchup? Against who? Garnett the Defensive Player of the Year? Its hard to even reply seriously with such an inane analysis.

June 04, 2008

Mfinizza said:

J Lee and Stephen Oh, both well said, I agree with with you. I think that the Lakers are just going to run the heck out of Boston. It should be a fun series. smilies/wink.gif