When trying to answer the question of whether this is a good trade for the Dallas Mavericks you have to weigh the short term vs. the long term.  Jason Kidd is a lot older than Devin Harris (the principle trade components) so Dallas could be hurting their future by making the trade.

However, the goal for the Mavericks is to win the NBA Championship this year even if it means winning fewer games in 2009, 2010, etc.  Ask Dwayne Wade if he’d rather have his Championship ring or have finished 4th in the East last year, this year and next.

Unlike most very good teams, Dallas is in the bottom third of the league in assists per game.  Despite averaging just 20 assists per game they still rank 6th in team Field Goal Percentage.  That means they are a team with great perimeter shooters (Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Jason Terry) who can nail shots even with a hand in their face.  Dirk Nowitzki’s forecasted FG% without Dirk Nowitzki against top teams in the West is 44.2%, but with Jason Kidd it increases to 45.0%.

AccuScore ran two simulations for the Dallas Mavericks playing home and away against the top teams in the West.  We assumed all teams are 100% healthy (ex. Lakers with Bynum, Spurs with Parker, Phoenix with Shaq, etc.). 

This analysis clearly shows that Dallas is better off with Jason Kidd, at least for this year.

The Mavs go from a slight overall underdog against these Top 5 teams, winning 46% of all simulations, all the way to an even 50% (a +4 percentage increase).

I wanted to see how Kidd really helps the Mavs. This is how the team performed in simulations vs. the Lakers at home.  Jason Kidd is not a high percentage shooter so his sub-par shooting does result in the Mavs shooting slightly worse from the field, but barely (just 0.1% difference).  This reduction is more than offset by improved Three Point shooting from the likes of Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitzki and more possessions thanks to Kidd’s great rebounding from the PG position.