The Jason Kidd trade rumors refuse to go away. Will he go or won't he? It seems very obvious that Kidd would prefer to play for a winner, and I think Rod Thorn would pull the trigger on a trade for the right offer. Of course the Nets would prefer to keep Kidd when they make their move to 2009, but if the team can't compete in the East there would seem little point to keeping an aging point guard in his mid-thirties.

With the Mavericks recent stretch of poor play, losing six of nine, Dallas has surfaced in as the hot rumor as a possible destination for Kidd. Kidd of course began his career in Dallas being drafted second in 1994 out of California and would seem open to playing once again in Texas. In a straight two-team trade Dallas could make an enticing package in a number of ways. Forward Keith Van Horn is unofficially retired, but he could be signed to an expiring contract in order to make the salaries work under the collective bargaining agreement.

The first player New Jersey would likely ask for would be Josh Howard. The small forward out of Wake Forest is having a career year averaging 22.4 points and 7.3 rebounds. He may be deemed "untouchable" by Dallas, but he certainly would be a player New Jersey would be interested in. The second key player would likely be Devin Harris who would be a promising young point guard to replace Kidd in New Jersey.

AccuScore has come up with two different scenarios under which a Kidd trade scenario could be worked out between Dallas and New Jersey (in both cases, cash considerations, draft picks, and Keith Van Horn's contract would be included to make a deal possible).

1. Jason Kidd to Dallas for Devin Harris and Jason Terry
2. Jason Kidd to Dallas for Devin Harris and Josh Howard

The entire purpose of this trade would be for Dallas improve enough to potentially win the Western conference. After playoff meltdowns the past two seasons, regular season success means little to Dallas.

The chart shows Dallas' winning percentage against their likely playoff foes, the Spurs and Suns, if all teams were at full strength. In the first trade scenario (Harris and Terry for Kidd) our simulations showed that having Kidd would help Dallas against the Spurs in San Antonio, but at home the Mavericks would be better off keeping Jason Terry and Devin Harris. Both players seem to shoot much better at home. Harris is also a natural counter to Tony Parker with the quickness and length to keep up on the defensive end.

In the second scenario, the Mavericks would also better off keeping Howard and Harris than they would be with Kidd. As great a player as Kidd is, he is not a good shooter and can not defend both forward positions like Howard can. While Kidd's passing would help Dallas get better looks offensively, but those benefits would be offset by not having Howard to finish those opportunities.

The Nets, predictably, would be significantly worse without Kidd in both scenarios. Josh Howard does not help the Nets very much because he is redundant with Richard Jefferson. Both players' natural position is small forward, and it would be difficult to play both together in the frontcourt. Jason Terry is a better pure shooter and scorer than Kidd, but Vince Carter is already a quality perimeter scorer making Terry a redundant piece as well. Terry could obviously play point guard, but he has shown in Dallas that he is most effective playing off the ball as a scorer.

Harris has shown promise, but he clearly is not the passer and distributor on par with Kidd. Realistically, few players can measure up in these areas. Another factor to consider would be on the boards. Even though Harris (or Terry) would play point guard the loss of Kidd would greatly affect New Jersey on the boards negatively. Kidd is the leading rebounder for the Nets at over eight per game. Terry and Harris average less than six rebounds combined.

As with likely any possible Kidd trade, these scenarios would leave the Nets worse off as Howard and Terry would not fit in well with the current New Jersey roster. Harris would be a nice young player as a replacement point guard, but he is not nearly in Kidd's class as a playmaker and team leader, and likely never will be. Both teams would be better off not making this deal.