Chris Webber has come full-circle in his NBA career returning to his original team, the Golden State Warriors.  He was acquired of course after being selected from by the Orlando Magic No.1 overall for Anfernee Hardaway and three first round draft picks.  His impact was immediately felt as Webber averaged nearly a double-double in his rookie season leading Golden State to its last playoff appearance prior to last season.  He famously then had a falling out with coach Don Nelson and was traded to the Washington Bullets.  Webber now returns to the Bay to rejoin the Warriors, and make amends with his first professional coach.

On the surface, it would seem that the signing of Webber would have little impact on the Western Conference race.  The Warriors play an up-tempo style to the extreme averaging over 109 points per contest with a bulk of that coming from the perimeter.  Their weakest area is rebounding where they rank next to last in margin just ahead of the Phoenix Suns.  Webber is no longer the athlete he once was, and it is questionable how he will be able to keep up with the run-and-gun style.  With his athleticism compromised it is also questionable how much he will help on the boards as he is clearly no longer an elite rebounder.

Golden State is currently in a virtual tie for seventh (as of 1/29) with Portland and Denver though, and any boost from Webber would be beneficial in order to break the logjam in the West.  Webber does give this team another legitimate big man to throw on the floor besides Andris Biedrins.  On this team, he will only need to hit open shots, and help facilitate scores for his teammates which he can do effectively with his superb passing ability.  Webber should be able to find cutters in the lane as well as find open three point shooters passing out of the post.

Webber should  also benefit from having such athletic playmakers on the perimeter.  He will likely have plenty of wide open mid-range shots because opposing big men will have to help defend on dribble penetration by the likes of Baron Davis and Monta Ellis.  Webber has always been an excellent shooter, and he should be able to hit over 47% of these mid-range shots.  Webber, as previously stated, is not a great rebounder at this stage of his career, but his mere size and basketball acumen will automatically make him the second best rebounder for the Warriors.  He will also provide a solid interior defensive presence against opposing big men.  Biedrins is and excellent rebounder and weak-side help defender with his athleticism and wingspan, but he lacks the bulk to really bang down low in the West against the likes of Carlos Boozer, Tim Duncan, or Yao Ming.  Webber gives Golden State a beefier defender in the post.

Even at his advanced age given all the factors, it does appear that signing Webber is an excellent idea for Golden State.  The Warriors will be in a dogfight for the playoffs all season, and any boost to their team will be huge.  Add to the fact that Webber will only be making a pro-rated portion of the veteran’s minimum salary, and this deal is even better.  AccuScore simulated games at home and on the road against the Warriors chief rivals for the final playoff spots in the West:  Houston, Portland, and Utah.  All teams are at full strength.  Without Webber, Golden State has an overall winning percentage of 49%.  With Webber the Warriors go from slight underdogs to slight favorites overall against these key competitors.

These simulations have Webber playing 25 minutes per contest, a few minutes less than he averaged last season in 61 games with Philadelphia and Detroit.  Webber provides an average impact of +3 percentage points, which translates into 2.5 more wins over an 82 game season.  In the West, that margin would currently drop a team from having homecourt advantage in the first round to completely out of the playoffs so this impact is huge.  

Interestingly, Webber’s impact is completely negligible against the Trail Blazers, but against teams with bigger frontlines and dominant low post scorers (Boozer for Utah, Yao for Houston) Webber has a large positive impact.  The Trail Blazers do not have this type of the player having big men more similar to Webber in that they excel facing the basket, and in pick-and-roll situations.  Webber provides a bigger defender against the traditional low-post back-to-the-basket type of player, and should help the undersized Warriors defensively considerably.  Offensively, he demands attention in the high post due to his shooting and passing abilities.  He can force opposing big men to defend him 15 to 20 feet away the basket taking them out of rebounding position and providing more lanes for guards like Davis and Ellis to get to the rim.