Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREVIEW – ROUND 1

BOSTON CELTICS VS ATLANTA HAWKS
(Celtics 99.5% Favorites)

Stephen Oh’s Take
Kevin Garnett has instilled a ton of confidence in the Celtics’ young players (Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, Tony Allen) and gotten them to play with great defensive intensity. The combination of these youngsters and a couple smart veteran signings (Sam Cassell, PJ Brown) would actually be favored over the Hawks in a 7-game series if they had home court advantage, even if Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen did not play! The series would be very close (Boston 55% favorites), but they would nonetheless be favored. Assuming no major injuries, the Celtics should finish off Atlanta quickly and have plenty of time to rest up for the winner of the Cleveland/Washington series which could go 7 games.

Jonathan Lee’s Take
This is the biggest mismatch of the playoffs. The Hawks are a nice story, but the Celtics are the best team in the NBA. I predicted earlier in the season that if Atlanta got a point guard it would make the playoffs. The acquisition of Mike Bibby made that prediction come true as Atlanta had an 11-3 spurt over March and April to clinch a playoff berth. Boston though is a far superior team at every position. For all the hype out West, this has been the best basketball team in the world over the past year. Rajon Rondo will be a key throughout the playoffs, but Sam Cassell has been added for insurance at the point. I think this will be the only sweep of the playoffs.

DETROIT PISTONS VS PHILADELPHIA 76ers
(Pistons 95.2% Favorites)

Stephen Oh’s Take
Detroit is not vastly superior to Philadelphia in any one key area of the game (shooting percentage, rebounding, turnover margin, depth), but they are tangibly better in every key area of the game. In other words, they might out-rebound Philly by just 4, shoot only 2% better from the field, 5% better from the line, and commit 2 fewer turnovers. Each of these phases give Detroit a 2 point net advantage on the scoreboard and when you add all 4 of them together you have Detroit with an 8 point advantage on a neutral court (call that +12 at home, +4 on the road). When you factor for playoff experience and home court advantage Detroit is winning a resounding 95 percent of playoff series simulations.

Jonathan Lee’s Take
Philadelphia probably has no business being in the playoffs, but they are young, athletic, and play hard at all times. That’s enough in the East these days. The Sixers shoot almost no three pointers yet have found a way to be effective with Andre Miller having found the fountain of youth at the point guard position. Detroit is not nearly as dominant on defense as they have been in the past, but the bench has improved significantly with the emergence of Jason Maxiell, Amir Johnson, Rodney Stuckey, Jarvis Hayes, and Arron Afflalo. Detroit’s starting five is just too good for Philly to hang with in a seven game series. Don’t be surprised if the Sixers steal two games however.

Stephen Oh’s Take
I expect Orlando to lose one of the first two home games. They are the only team I can remember winning over 50 games with more road wins than home wins. However, even if they split the first two, Orlando’s superior road play this year should help them win one or even two games in Toronto. Dwight Howard is forecasted to hold Chris Bosh to under 44 percent shooting from the field while also averaging 20 pts and 15 rebounds. Toronto has much better point guards, but Orlando does not need clutch play from Jameer Nelson or Carlos Arroyo. Hedo Turkoglu has proven to be a superior decision-maker and clutch shooter from the perimeter or off the dribble than either point guard and Orlando will win this first round series.

Jonathan Lee’s Take
Is there any way the Raptors could trade a point guard to the Magic? Then we’d be talking about a serious Eastern contender. Instead these two rather unexciting teams clash in the first round. The Magic have been the third team out East pretty much all season thanks to the borderline MVP play of Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu. Chris Bosh is the stalwart for the Raptors along with the two-headed point guard Jose Calderon and T.J. Ford. Every other player in this series is a role player. Howard should prove too physical for Chris Bosh or the underwhelming Andrea Bargnani to deal with inside. Rasho Nesterovic actually has been very effective over the last month manning the post for the Raps.

Stephen Oh’s Take
Gilbert Arenas may think it is impossible for them to lose 3 straight years to Cleveland, but as a Wizards fan who has carefully watched this team for the last 20 years, I can tell you that is more than likely to lose this series the exact same way they lost the previous ones.

1. LeBron James’ superior ability to get to the basket
   
2. The referees’ give LeBron the benefit of the doubt on close calls.
3. The Wizards defenders are either too small (Arenas, Deshawn Stevenson, Caron Butler), not nearly quick enough on the defensive end (Antawn Jamison, Darius Songaila) or they too inexperienced (Andray Blatch) to stop LeBron from getting a lay-up when the game is on the line.

However, this assumes LeBron can play with a bad back. Last year the Wizards were devastated by injuries in the playoffs. If the basketball gods give them a break and LeBron is seriously limited by injury in 2 games then Washington is the favorite.

Jonathan Lee’s Take
The Wizards and DeShawn Stevenson and Gilbert Arenas get their wish in the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round. The Cavs have struggled since their big deadline deal. Ben Wallace has provided almost nothing and the point guard issues remain, but the only thing that matters in this series is that LeBron James plays for Cleveland and not Washington. Everybody saw how James can completely takeover a series last season. I fully expect that to happen once again as the Wizards have nobody to defend James. I think the Wizards are actually a better team, but LeBron puts the Cavs over the top by himself. The Wizards can make this exciting however with their multitude of options on offense starting with Arenas, Stevenson, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler and then Roger Mason, Nick Young, and Andray Blatche off the bench. LeBron though trumps them all as the key to a win in this series.

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akronoh said:

yo, lebron is mvp for sure

April 29, 2008

bli112 said:

cleveland vr's boston

April 24, 2008

Jys mathalu said:

Cleveland is not what they wer last year and washington has improved however they have no answer for LBJ and they have not quite caught the CAVS yet. However this is probably their best chance for years to come.

April 21, 2008

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