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Xavier Nady Trade Impact
Stephen Oh
AccuScore Analyst

The Yankees acquired Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. With their recent winning streak the Yankees have more than tripled their chances of making the playoffs from 15 percent one month ago to 54 percent prior to the trade. Their chances of winning the AL East or making the playoffs was still third in the division to Boston and Tampa Bay.

However, with the acquisition of Nady and Marte the Yankees improved their chances of winning the AL East by 3 percentage points which is a sizable improvement with roughly 60 games remaining in the season.

YANKEES WIN DIV WILDCARD PLAYOFFS
NO TRADE 29% 25% 54%
WITH TRADE 32% 26% 58%
TRADE IMPACT 3% 1% 4%

More importantly, the Yankees’ chances of winning the division and making the playoffs is second to Boston. It looks like the trade could be enough to put the Yankees back into the playoffs and the young Rays (and other wildcard contenders – Minnesota, Detroit, Oakland) out of it.

WIN AL EAST NO TRADE W/TRADE
BOSTON RED SOX 40% 39%
NEW YORK YANKEES 29% 32%
TAMPA BAY RAYS 30% 28%
TORONTO BLUE JAYS 1% 1%
BALTIMORE ORIOLES 0% 0%

Even with the injuries to their starting pitchers Chien-Mien Wang and Phil Hughes, the Yankees’ chances of making the playoffs are a solid fourth in the American League with the trade.

AMERICAN LEAGUE PLAYOFF
Los Angeles Angels 98%
Chicago White Sox 65%
Boston Red Sox 65%
New York Yankees 58%
Tampa Bay Rays 55%
Minnesota Twins 32%
Detroit Tigers 12%