Stephen Oh & Aaron Feldstein
AccuScore Analysts

In the most decidedly unexpected of outcomes, the Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies will meet in the World Series. While casual observers and television networks would have rather had the Boston and Los Angeles markets still playing, these two teams have proven over the course of the season to be the best their respective leagues have to offer. Philadelphia has announced that Cole Hamels will start Game 1 followed by Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton, the same rotation that pitched the Phillies to the National League pennant. Tampa Bay has yet to set its rotation, but Joe Maddon will likely go with what got him here. Scott Kazmir has not started since last Thursday so he is the likely Game 1 starter followed by James Shields, ALCS MVP Matt Garza, and Andy Sonnanstine.

Based on the expected pitching match-ups, AccuScore projections make the Tampa Bay Rays the prohibitive favorites to win the World Series. The Rays are winning in 68 percent of simulations, and are heavily favored in each individual game except the two games expected to be started by Hamels.

The edge for the Rays can be attributed to several factors:

While many don’t like the idea of awarding home-field in the World Series to the winner of the All-Star game, at least this season it was heavily influenced by several players actually participating in the Fall Classic. Kazmir pitched a scoreless 15^th inning while Brad Lidge allowed two singles and a walk before giving up a sac-fly to lose the game. The Rays went 57-24 at home in the regular season, and 4-2 in the playoffs.

It is extremely telling that the Phillies are favored in only the two games Hamels is projected to start (Games 1 and 5). He will go up against Kazmir in both games, and while he is the better pitcher, he is giving his team just a 52 percent edge in simulations. Tampa is favored in at least 55 percent of every other contest including at least 65 percent in three games. The Rays have three legitimate aces to throw with Kazmir, Shields, and Garza who was completely dominant in the ALCS. Andy Sonnanstine has pitched very well in both of his postseason starts. When your third best pitcher is the ALCS MVP, you know the rotation is in good shape.

The Phillies have big question marks beyond Hamels. Brett Myers has two postseason wins, but also has given up seven runs in 12 innings. Jamie Moyer has lasted just 5.1 combined innings in two starts, and would be projected to start Game 7. Joe Blanton has actually been Philadelphia’s second best starter but he is eminently hittable having allowed 16 baserunners in 11 postseason innings.

Tampa clearly has the better defensive team, and in the postseason every play is magnified tenfold. The Rays are superior defensively at virtually every position, and have three centerfield types roaming the outfield when Rocco Baldelli is in the lineup. Chase Utley is probably the best defensive second baseman in baseball, but Akinori Iwamura is no slouch himself. Defensive miscues can turn the outcome of a series (just ask Detroit in 2006), and the advantage here lies with Tampa.

Philadelphia does have some things going for them that will help in this series. The Phillies are very solid on the road going 44-37 in the regular season and 2-2 this postseason. Both series clinchers came on the road. They also have two ready-made hitters in Gregg Dobbs or Matt Stairs to man the designated hitter slot in the games played in Tampa which is a luxury most National League teams don’t have. While playing either in the DH-slot hurts their depth and flexibility in the later innings, it is much more preferable than batting a light-hitting utility infielder or a defensive outfielder that is often the case for NL World Series participants. The Phillies also have the best bullpen in baseball with Lidge who has yet to blow a save this season at the back-end. The Rays have a solid bullpen of their own, but their roles are decidedly up in the air with rookie David Price closing out Game 7. The other relievers can also be rattled as evidenced by Boston’s comeback in Game 5 of the ALCS.

Picking Philadelphia to reach this point would not have been a stretch at all. The Phillies were the defending NL East champions, and had three MVP-caliber players in the infield. Tampa Bay though has literally gone from worst to first this season, and looks poised to bring home one of the most improbable championships in baseball history. The Rays had never won more than 70 games in a season, but here they are playing the role of favorites in the World Series. They are young and talented, and have a better pitching rotation, defense, and lineup than their opponents. They have shown they can play small ball (17 stolen bases this postseason) and long ball (22 home runs). Now they have seven more games to prove to everyone they are the best team in baseball.