If any team needed to come out on top in the Johan Santana sweepstakes, it was the Mets.  The Mets barely missed the playoffs last year, losing the NL East by a game to the Phillies, and losing the wild card by one game to the Rockies.  The worst part for the Mets was that after starting September with an 8-1 record, they finished 6-13, with 12 of those losses coming to division opponents.  A breakdown of those final 19 games shows that the offense was doing their job, putting up an average of 5.63 runs per game.  It was the pitching, more specifically the starters, who dropped the ball.

Mets starters averaged a 6.73 ERA during this losing stretch.  Their starters put up an ERA under four in just seven starts.  They put up an ERA of over 10 just as many times.  Their starters during this stretch averaged just five innings, and about four earned runs per start.  It’s safe to say that the Mets desperately needed an ace who could put up a solid performance every five days, and preventing their offensive efforts from going to waste.

Enter Johan Santana.

It’s safe to assume that two or three starts from Santana during this stretch would have been the difference between going home early, and winning and extra two games to win the NL East.  The Mets struggled against divisional opponents during that final stretch, but the story was the same throughout the season.  The Mets finished with a 35-37 record against NL East teams, far worse than their 53-37 record against the rest of the league.  We know Johan Santana will be a huge upgrade to the Mets, but AccuScore wanted to see just how much.  We took the 2007 rosters, and compared Mike Pelfrey with Johan Santana against all of the NL East teams.

Santana gives the Mets a significant upgrade over Pelfrey against every NL East opponent in every situation.  On average, Santana gives the Mets a 26% greater winning percentage.  Over 35 starts that upgrade equals 9.1 more wins.  If you assume that Santana starts 15 of the 72 games that the Mets played against the NL East, that comes out to three more wins.  Both of these upgrades would have put the Mets in the playoffs, perhaps even with the NL’s best record.  Besides wins, how else does Santana help the Mets?  Let’s take a look at the stats of Santana and Pelfrey during these simulations.

During their losing stretch in September the Mets’ starters only pitched six or more innings six times.  On seven occasions the Mets starters pitched fewer than five innings.  We see that Pelfrey is only going over five innings in 30 percent of simulations.  Santana on the other hand is going over six innings in 80 percent of simulations.  Santana’s average start with the Mets yields about seven innings, two earned runs, six hits, and seven strikeouts.  Not only does he give the Mets a fantastic opportunity to win the game, but at the same time he gives the bullpen a rest every five days, and takes the pressure away from the offense.

The Mets can expect great things for the 2008 season.  We know the offense will return, with stars like Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Delgado roaming the lineup.  After seeing how Santana upgraded the 2007 Mets, it wouldn’t be far fetched to assume that the 2008 Mets will be heavy favorites to run away with the NL East title this year.