Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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The Tampa Bay Rays have introduced themselves to world grabbing a commanding 3-1 series lead over the defending World Champion Red Sox.  While the result may be surprising to some, it really shouldn’t be.  The Rays were the better team all season winning the AL East by two full games.  They are young, talented, and are completely unaffected by the pressure of the moment.  And now they are just one game away from the World Series.

Tampa is the 87 percent favorite to win the series with two of the remaining three games at home.  The big news is that manager Joe Maddon will go with Scott Kazmir in Game 5, not James Shields as originally scheduled.  He will go up against Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka.  The move is significant because it improves the Red Sox’s chances of winning and keeping the series going for at least another contest.  With Kazmir starting, the Rays are projected to win just 39 percent of the time in Game 5.  If Shields had started that number would jump to 48 percent, still not a favorite but at only a slight disadvantage. 

The change however, does benefit Tampa Bay in the following game.  Shields is a 55 percent favorite against Josh Beckett in Game 6, an improvement of eight percent over Kazmir.  Maddon’s switch puts his team at a bigger disadvantage in the final game at Fenway, but increases the likelihood of closing out the series in six games.  Jon Lester’s struggles in his start this series and the Rays bats coming alive also give Tampa a 52 percent edge in a potential Game 7.

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