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Previewing the American League West Print E-mail
Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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  2008 FORECAST     PLAYOFF%     FORECAST     MLB FUTURES  
  AL WEST     PLAYOFF     WIN DIV     W     L     LINE     PRED  
  Los Angeles Angels     56.3%     52.6%     87.4     74.6     91.5     UNDER  
  Seattle Mariners     39.0%     34.7%     84.7     77.3     84.0     OVER  
  Oakland Athletics     12.0%     10.4%     78.2     83.8     73.5     OVER  
  Texas Rangers     2.6%     2.3%     72.3     89.7     74.5     UNDER  

OVERALL OUTLOOK
The Angels won yet another division title last season, and they are the heavy favorites once again.  AccuScore projections show that this season will likely be much like last year with the Angels on top, the Mariners chasing, and Oakland and Texas rebuilding below .500.  That is in line with how most people view the division.

Los Angeles and Seattle should battle most of the year for the division crown, but the Angels are built much better for the long run with more balance between pitching and hitting.  Oakland and Texas do not look like they are contending this season, but will be developing young talent for the future.  The A’s began the rebuilding process in earnest over the offseason restocking the farm system in a big way jumping to the top of many publications’ organizational rankings. 


LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM
Reaching the playoffs is the only real end for the Angels.  Mike Scioscia will once again rely on small ball to score runs, and expect a strong rotation and bullpen to keep them in position to win games.  There is a surplus of outfielders with newcomer Torii Hunter forcing out Gary Matthews Jr. from centerfield.  Vladimir Guerrero will once again man rightfield and be the anchor in the lineup.  That leaves Matthews Jr. and Garrett Anderson in left and DH, and leaves last season’s rookie revelation Reggie Willits without a spot.  Injuries to some key players and young players making transitions to larger roles will keep the Angels interesting to watch all season.

New Faces:  Hunter takes over in center field to provide more protection for Guerrero.  Hunter is not a superstar, but he still has some pop and is a very consistent performer.  Shortstop Orlando Cabrera was traded away for starter John Garland, and in light of some injuries in the rotation, that was a good thing.  The trade also opens up a spot in the lineup for either Macier Izturis and Erick Aybar.

Injury Concerns:  Guerrero was banged up for most of 2007, and he will DH more often this season in an attempt to keep him fresh.  Both John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar are injured to start the year, and if they don’t come back healthy this team could be in some trouble.  Lackey has never before had a major injury so this is new territory for him.  Escobar has a history of this so it must be more concerning that he is down again.  All the innings over the year may have finally caught up to Scott Shields as the reliever will also start the year on the DL.  Luckily for the Angels there is depth enough to cover for the absence of these players at the start, but they need to have the trio back as soon as possible.

Expectations:  This team is still the heavy favorite in the West.  If the Angels don’t win the division they will likely miss the playoffs which would be a massive disappointment.  They have flamed out of the playoffs in recent years, and I would think this team would need to reach at least the ALCS to consider the season a success.


SEATTLE MARINERS

Although Seattle won 88 games last season and seeming made moves to improve, the team’s run differential did not match their record.  In other words, the Mariners overachieved, and the improvements were necessary just to try and maintain their record as they will likely regress to more of a normal performance.

New Faces:  Eric Bedard was the big acquisition in the offseason, and he will immediately become the premier starter in the division.  His issues with the long ball in spring training shouldn’t be too concerning considering he will be making half his starts in spacious Safeco Field.  Carlos Silva was also signed, and should slot into the third spot in the rotation and provide a solid season full of innings.  Little was made to improve the offense however, and rookies Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentein will not start out in the majors.

Injury Concerns:  Richie Sexson was affected all season with various maladies.  He’s had some elbow issues early in the year, and a rebound season is vital if the Mariners are going to make a run at the division title. 

Expectations:  Management appears to believe they are ready to contend, and the moves they made to improve the pitching staff support that notion.  The problem is that no improvements were made to the lineup, and another year of Jose Vidro as the DH is not the best way to jumpstart the offense.  If Richie Sexson does not rebound the Mariners probably have no shot at the playoffs.  The pitching will keep Seattle in contention past the All-Star break, but they likely won’t seriously challenge the Angels.


OAKLAND ATHLETICS
The A’s are not expecting to contend this season so our season projection of 78 wins is a bit surprising.  Considering the state of flux of the roster expect Oakland to under-perform that number this season.  The main focus for this season will be to find some major league regulars that can grow with the next wave of prospects that will arrive in Oakland over the next three or four seasons.

With Billy Beane at the helm it would not be surprising to see the A’s contend in the very near future especially when they move into their new ballpark just don’t expect it to happen this season.  With that said, everybody on the roster is a possibility to be traded for even more prospects.

New Faces:  Expect to see a stream of new faces from within organization all year in Oakland.  Players like Daric Barton, Travis Buck, and Kurt Suzuki will get full seasons to show what they can do.  Chris Denorfia and Emil Brown will spend a lot of time in the outfield, and former Royal Mike Sweeney has made the roster and may steal at-bats at DH. 

Injury Concerns:  Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby are talented, but can’t stay healthy enough to make an impact.  If either can stay on the field they are likely both prime candidates to be traded for more prospects.  Reliever Kiko Calero has landed on the 60-day DL, and was expected to be a stalwart in the bullpen.  Eric Chavez has struggled with minor injuries his entire career, and he did not make the trip to Japan trying to recover in time to be ready by April.  His issues may linger all throughout this season as well.

Expectations:  Our projection of 78 wins seems a bit optimistic for this Oakland team.  The A’s are clearly rebuilding, and the Opening Day roster will likely bear little resemblance to the team that finishes the year.  Young players will likely be given experience in the majors, and trades of Harden, Street, or Joe Blanton are possible to bring in even more talent.  Oakland is aiming to contend in 2010-2012 not in 2008.


TEXAS RANGERS

The Rangers look to be the one team capable of exceeding the preseason projections we have for them.  It is a bit surprising to see them with such a little chance of reaching the playoffs in comparison to Oakland, but there is less of a track record in Texas with the current roster.

This team has always relied on its offense to win games, but the chance for improvement lies solely in the ability pitching staff.  There is some talent here, and the bullpen is a work in progress so the Rangers could show some improvement, but likely will not compete seriously in the division.

Acquiring young players has been a point of emphasis in recent years, and Josh Hamilton and Jarrod Saltalamacchia should bear some fruits of that this season.

New Faces:  Hamilton will open up in centerfield after coming over from Cincinnati.  Milton Bradley will patrol right field most of the year, but will start out likely as the DH while recovering from an ACL injury suffered late last season.  Saltalamacchia won’t start out in the everyday lineup, but he should sometime during the season as his bat is too good to leave in the minors or on the bench. 

Injury Concerns:  Hamilton, if he can avoid injury, has legitimate 35+ home run potential.  Starter Brandon McCarthy is already out at least a month with elbow inflammation in his right arm.  Keeping the other members of the rotation healthy will also be key to the success of the Rangers. 

Expectations:  Anything close to .500 would be a mild success for this squad.  Texas needs to build for the future and acquiring and developing more pitching should be priority number one.

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